BoE Bailey: Will adjust rate further if inflation pressures persist

    BoE Governor Andrew Bailey pledged in a speech, “I can assure you that the MPC will adjust Bank Rate as necessary to return inflation to target sustainably in the medium term, in line with its remit.”

    “If there were to be evidence of more persistent pressures, then further tightening in monetary policy would be required,” he added.

    In the baseline modal projection of May Report, which is conditional on a market-implied path for interest to peak at 4.75% in Q4, inflation will fall materially below the 2% target in the medium term.”

    However, he noted, “risks to inflation are skewed significantly to the upside”, primarily reflecting the possibility of more persistence in domestic wage and price setting. Also, the “unwinding of second-round effects may take longer than it did for them to emerge”.

    This “asymmetry” was not made as part of the baseline modal projection. Instead, “we think of this as a material upside risk to the inflation outlook over the medium term.”

    Full speech of BoE Bailey here.

    Eurozone CPI finalized at 7% yoy in Apr, CPI core at 5.6% yoy

      Eurozone CPI was finalized at 7.0% yoy in April, up from March’s 6.9% yoy. The highest contribution to came from food, alcohol & tobacco (+2.75%), followed by services (+2.21%), non-energy industrial goods (+1.62%) and energy (+0.38%). CPI core (excluding energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) was finalized at 5.6% yoy, down from prior month’s 5.7% yoy.

      EU CPI was finalized at 8.1% yoy. The lowest annual rates were registered in Luxembourg (2.7%), Belgium (3.3%) and Spain (3.8%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Hungary (24.5%), Latvia (15.0%) and Czechia (14.3%). Compared with March, annual inflation fell in twenty-two Member States and rose in five.

      Full Eurozone CPI release here.

      Australia wage growth accelerated to 0.8% in Q1, highest in over a decade

        Australia wage price index posted 0.8% qoq increase in Q1 2023, slightly short of expected 0.9% rise. Despite this, annual wage growth accelerated to 3.7%, marking the highest level since Q3 2012. This uptick is attributable to a combination of factors, including low unemployment, tight labour market, and high inflation.

        Private sector emerged as the primary engine of growth, with wages climbing 0.8% over Q1 and experiencing an annual rise of 3.8%. According to Leigh Merrington, ABS’s acting head of prices statistics, several private sector industries witnessed an annual wage growth exceeding 4%, with the remaining industries all recording an annual growth above 3%.

        In the public sector, the highest quarterly (0.9%) and annual (3.0%) wage growth in a decade was reported. Increase in public sector wages is attributed to outcomes from enterprise agreement bargaining, regular scheduled rises, and higher wage caps.

        Merrington further highlighted wage outcomes for Q1 2023, stating, “There was a continued lift in the share of jobs receiving wage rises of between 4 and 6 per cent, which is the highest share since 2009. The share of jobs with a wage rise of 2 per cent or less has fallen from over 50 per cent in mid-2021 to less than 20 per cent.”

        Full Australia wage price index release here.

        Japan’s economy bounced back in Q1, up 1.6% annualized, 0.4% qoq

          Japan’s economy delivered a robust performance in Q1, expanding at annualized rate of 1.6%, which significantly surpassed expectation of 0.7%. This marks the first expansion in three quarters, thanks to a potent combination of strong private consumption and a rebound in inbound tourism.

          In terms of real GDP, adjusted for inflation, there was an increase of 0.4% qoq, beating the forecast growth of 0.1% qoq. The positive data signals a welcome resurgence in Japan’s economy, signaling a potential turn-around after short period of technical recession.

          Looking into the details, private consumption for the quarter rose by 0.6%, driven by robust demand for cars and durable goods. Concurrently, consumers boosted spending on services such as dining out, culminating in the fourth consecutive quarterly gain. Meanwhile, capital spending rose by 0.9%, aided by increased car-related investments and marking the first increase in two quarters.

          However, not all sectors exhibited positive trends. Exports took a hit, declining by -4.2% due to a slump in shipments of cars and machinery used for chip production. Imports also fell by 2-.3%. Public investment remained largely flat.

          Fed Logan: Slower tightening shouldn’t signal any less commitment

            Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan emphasized the importance of a cautious approach to tightening monetary policy amidst uncertainty, suggesting that a slower pace doesn’t diminish commitment to achieving inflation goals.

            Logan stated in a conference, “when conditions are uncertain, you may need to travel more slowly. But a slower pace of tightening shouldn’t signal any less commitment to achieving the inflation goal.” She further noted the potential for nonlinear deterioration of financial conditions, advocating for smaller, less frequent rate hikes to mitigate this risk.

            Logan also underscored the multifaceted nature of monetary policy’s impact. She said, “The restrictiveness of monetary policy comes from the entire policy strategy – how fast rates rise, the level they reach, the time spent at that level and the factors that determine further increases or decreases.”

            Seaprately, New York Fed President John Williams highlighted the time lag between policy decisions and their full impact on the economy, underlining the importance of monitoring the economy’s behavior post-decision. “We’ve got to make our decisions and then watch what happens, get that feedback, see how the economy’s behaving,” Williams explained.

            In another occasion, Chicago’s Austan Goolsbee, however, indicated it may be too soon to discuss rate cuts or changes to monetary policy. He said, “I think it’s far too premature to be talking about rate cuts and premature to be saying — even for the next meeting — are we going to pause? Are we going to raise? Are we going to cut.”

            Fed Mester: The point of policy hold not reached yet

              Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester signaled her cautious approach towards interest rate adjustments. She emphasized her desire for the policy rate to reach a level where the next policy change could be equally a potential increase or decrease.

              Mester stated at a conference today, “The approach I’m taking is that I would like the policy rate to get to a point where, when I’m thinking about what would the next policy change be, I want it to be equally a potential increase versus a decrease.”

              Mester further clarified her stance, indicating that once the desired policy rate is achieved, she envisions a period of stability. “When we get the policy to that rate, I think we’re going to be holding for a while in order to make sure that the interest rate is coming back down. So I don’t put it in terms of a pause, I put it in terms of a hold.”

              However, she noted that current data doesn’t suggest that this rate has been reached yet. Expressing a need for more evidence of inflation trending downwards, Mester insisted on the importance of adhering to the current policy strategy. She said, “I need to see more evidence that inflation is still moving down. I think that we just have to stick with what we’re doing.”

              Canada CPI rose to 4.4% yoy in Apr, first acceleration since June 2022

                Canada CPI rose 0.7% mom in April, above expectation of 0.5% mom. Prices for gasoline (+6.3%) contributed the most to the headline month-over-month movement. Excluding gasoline, the monthly CPI rose 0.5%.

                Over the 12-month period, CPI accelerated from 4.3% yoy to 4.4% yoy, above expectation of 4.1% yoy. That’s the first acceleration in headline CPI since June 2022. Statistics Canada said that higher rent prices and mortgage interest costs contributed the most to the all-items CPI increase.

                CPI median slowed from 4.5% yoy to 4.2% yoy, below expectation of 4.3% yoy. CPI trimmed dropped from 4.4% yoy to 4.2% yoy, above expectation of 4.1% yoy. CPI common slowed from 6.0% yoy to 5.7% yoy, above expectation of 5.5% yoy.

                Full Canada CPI release here.

                US retail sales up 0.4% mom in Apr, ex-auto sales up 0.4% mom

                  US retail sales rose 0.4% mom in USD 686.1B in April, below expectation of 0.8% mom. Ex-auto sales rose 0.4% mom to USD 556.1B, below expectation of 0.5% mom. Ex-gasoline sales rose 0.5% mom to USD 631.4B. Ex-auto, gasoline sales rose 0.6% mom to USD 501.4B. Total sales for the February through April period were up 3.1% yoy.

                  Full US retail sales release here.

                  Eurozone imports fell -10% yoy in Mar, exports rose 7.5% yoy

                    Eurozone goods exports to the rest of the world rose 7.5% yoy to EUR 269.2B in March. Imports fell -10.0% yoy to EUR 243.5B. Trade surplus came in at EUR 25.6B. Intra-Eurozone trade rose 0.6% yoy to EUR 246.4B.

                    In seasonally adjusted term, goods exports dropped -0.1% mom to EUR 243.3B. Imports dropped -7.1% mom to EUR 226.2B. Trade balanced turned into EUR 17.0B surplus, above expectation of EUR 5.6B. Intra-Eurozone trade dropped from EUR 230.9B to EUR 223.2B.

                    Full Eurozone trade balance release here.

                    Germany ZEW dived to -10.7, economy could slip into recession

                      Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment recorded in significantly decline from 4.1 to -10.7 in May, even worse than expectation of -5.0%. Current Situation Index dropped from -32.5 to -34.8.

                      Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment fell form 6.4 to -9.4. Current Situation Index rose 2.7 pts to -27.5.

                      ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach said:

                      “The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment has once again fallen sharply. The financial market experts anticipate a worsening of the already unfavourable economic situation in the next six months. As a result, the German economy could slip into a recession, albeit a mild one.

                      “The sentiment indicator decline is partly due to expectations of further interest rate hikes by the ECB. Additionally, the potential default by the United States in the coming weeks adds uncertainty to global economic prospects”.

                      Full Germany ZEW release here.

                      UK payrolled employees dropped -136k in Apr, unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in Mar

                        UK payrolled employees dropped -0.5% mom, or -136k in April, comparing with March. That is the first decline in total payrolled employees since the COVID pandemic. Comparing with April 2022, payrolled employees rose 1.0% yoy or 297k. Claimant counts rose 46.7k, above expectation of 31.2k. Median monthly pay rose 7.4% yoy.

                        In the three months to March, unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 3.9%, comparing to the previous quarter. Employment rate rose 0.2% to 75.9%. Average earnings including bonus rose 5.8% 3moy. Average earnings excluding bonus rose 6.7% 3moy.

                        Full UK employment release here.

                        China’s industrial production, retail sales miss expectations; youth unemployment hits record high

                          China’s industrial production growth fell short of expectations in April, with a year-on-year increase of 5.6% yoy, significantly under expectation of 10.1% growth. Despite missing the mark, the growth rate outpaced March’s 3.9% yoy rise and marked the fastest expansion since September 2022.

                          Retail sales also grew less than expected, posting 18.4% yoy rise, which fell short of anticipated 20.1% yoy growth. The figure was largely inflated due to a low comparison base, as retail sales plummeted by -11.1% yoy in April of the previous year due to severe lockdowns. On a monthly basis, retail sales contracted by -7.8% mom from March.

                          Fixed asset investment growth also came in below expectations 4.7% ytd yoy growth, underperforming expectation of 5.2%.

                          Urban jobless rate ticked down from 5.3% to 5.2%. However, unemployment among 16-24 age group spiked to a record high of 20.4%, up from 19.6% in the previous month. This exceeded the previous record of 19.9% set in July 2022.

                          The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) stated, “In general, in April, the national economy continued to recover, and positive factors accumulated and increased. But we must also see that the international environment is still complex and severe, domestic demand is still insufficient, and the endogenous driving force for economic recovery is not yet strong.”

                          RBA Minutes: Further hikes may still be required

                            Minutes of RBA’s May meeting revealed a detailed discussion where Board members weighed the pros and cons of keeping cash rate unchanged or increasing it by 25 basis points. Despite the fine balance of arguments, the Board saw it fit to raise the interest rates by 25bps to 3.85%, due to upside risks in inflation and tight labour market.

                            Data available in the month leading up to the meeting confirmed significant inflationary pressures and highlighted upside risks to the inflation outlook. The Board was concerned that if these risks materialised, it would “further delay the return of inflation to target levels” and potentially trigger a “damaging shift in inflation expectations”.

                            While acknowledging considerable uncertainties surrounding the economic outlook, particularly with respect to household consumption, the Board’s strong commitment to price stability and the necessity of anchoring inflation expectations tipped the scales in favour of a rate hike.

                            Looking forward, the Board indicated that “further increases in interest rates may still be required”, depending on the evolution of the economy and inflation.

                            Full RBA minutes here.

                            Australian consumer sentiment plunges in May following unexpected RBA rate hike

                              Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index dropping sharpy by -7.9% from 85.8 to 79.0 in May. This decline brings the index close to the grim levels observed in March, which were the lowest since COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 and, prior to that, since the severe recession of early 1990s.

                              The unexpected decision by RBA to raise the cash rate by an additional 0.25% in May, as well as the Federal Budget, were cited by Westpac as the two main factors impacting consumer sentiment over the last month.

                              Westpac stated, “Interest rates were again a key driver of the May survey. The RBA raised the official cash rate by a further 0.25% at its May meeting in the week before the survey. The move came as a major surprise to markets and most commentators, clearly stoking consumer fears of more increases to come.”

                              Looking ahead, Westpac predicts that RBA will likely pause in June, awaiting further data on inflation and the state of the economy. While the bank’s central view anticipates the current cash rate will remain at its peak due to economic weakness and clear progress toward the Board’s inflation target, it acknowledges that the risks are still “evenly balanced”.

                              Full Australia Westpac consumer sentiment release here.

                              BoE Pill: Self-sustaining, second-round-effect momentum could keep inflation high

                                BoE Chief Economist, Huw Pill, voiced his concern about the enduring momentum of inflation in the UK during an online event yesterday. Pill warned of the risk of a self-sustaining inflation cycle, where despite the dissipation of key short-term inflation drivers like rising energy and food costs, businesses and workers would continue to seek substantial price and wage increases.

                                He said, “The risk is … that self-sustaining, second-round-effect momentum within the UK economy keeps inflation running at above-target levels.”

                                This trend could still align with a significant drop in headline inflation, Pill noted, but he expressed concern that headline inflation could stagnate at around 4% or 5% over the next two to three years.

                                “That’s still compatible with quite a big fall in headline inflation, but maybe headline inflation – other things equal – getting stuck at that 4%, 5% level over the next two or three years,” he clarified.

                                Meanwhile, Pill also highlighted the potential of AI to increase productivity and, subsequently, living standards. He emphasized, “Using AI to make ourselves more productive is one example of how we can do that to boost living standards. This is a win-win if we all get better off because we’re all more productive.”

                                Fed’s Barkin questions “whether we need to do more”

                                  Richmond Fed President Thomas said yesterday that he is unconvinced that inflation will taper off rapidly with only a marginal economic slowdown. Barkin stated, “You could tell yourself a story where inflation comes down relatively quickly … with only a modest economic slowdown.”

                                  He quickly added, “But I’m not yet convinced … I do wonder whether we’re not going to need more impact on demand to bring inflation down to where we need to go.”

                                  Barkin stayed open-minded about Fed’s policy direction at the upcoming June 13-14 meeting. Despite having raised the policy rate by 5 percentage points since March 2022, Barkin isn’t ruling out the possibility of another hike.

                                  In terms of the labor market, Barkin noted the shift from what he described as “red hot” to merely “hot.” He asserted, “On the unemployment side, I think you could fairly say it’s moved from red hot to hot, right? There’s nothing about 3.4% unemployment that feels … cool.”

                                  Despite the gradual effects of rate hikes beginning to show, Barkin emphasized that the job market remains robust and inflation persistent. He admitted, “I’m still seeing data that suggests a hot job market and enduring inflation,” leading him to believe inflation could persist longer than market measures suggest. Therefore, he concluded, “I’m still looking to ask myself the question whether we need to do more.”

                                  Separately, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the central bank probably has “more work to do on our end, to try to bring inflation back down,” adding that “we should not be fooled by a few months of positive data.”

                                   

                                   

                                  Fed’s Goolsbee highlights yet to be seen impact of Rate Hikes

                                    In an interview with CNBC, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that the full impact of the 500 basis points increase executed over the past year has yet to fully materialize. He expressed concern over the tight credit conditions that currently prevail and urged careful monitoring of the economic landscape.

                                    Goolsbee mentioned that his support for a rate hike earlier this month was a “close call.” He stated, “The thing that made it a close call for me is this big question mark about what is going to be the impact of this on credit conditions.”

                                    US Empire State business conditions index plunges, fueling recession fears

                                      In a significant downturn, New York Fed Empire State Business Conditions Index plummeted to -31.8 in May, a drastic drop of -42.6 points from its April reading of 10.8. This disappointing figure significantly underperforms market expectations of -1.9, and any reading below zero signals deteriorating conditions.

                                      This precipitous drop comes just a month after the index defied expectations with a 35.4 point surge to 10.8 in April. The recent plunge not only eradicates last month’s gains but also heightens concerns about a potential recession.

                                      In parallel with the overall index, new orders sub-index fell a whopping -53.1 points to -28 in May, effectively erasing the sharp 46.7 point increase seen in April. Additionally, shipments index witnessed a substantial decline, falling -40.3 points to -16.4, negating the 37.3 point gain from the previous month.

                                      Interestingly, amid this overall downturn, the six-month expectations measure managed to tick up slightly, gaining 3.2 points to reach 9.8.

                                      Full New York Fed Empire State survey release here.

                                      Fed’s Bostic indicates bias towards further hikes, no cut until well into 2024

                                        In an interview with CNBC, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized the importance of combating inflation, which he deems as “job No. 1”. He expressed his readiness to bear the cost necessary to achieve the Fed’s target, underscoring the need for a more aggressive stance on rate hikes given the current economic scenario.

                                        Bostic stated, “What we’ve seen is that inflation has been persistently high, consumers have been really resilient in terms of their spending, and labor markets remain extremely tight. All of those suggests that there’s still going to be upward pressure on prices.” His comments highlight the ongoing pressures that may trigger further inflationary spikes.

                                        He showcased leaning towards a proactive approach in dealing with inflation, stating, “If there’s going to be a bias to action, for me it would be a bias to increase a little further as opposed to cut.”

                                        Bostic remained confident in Fed’s policy measures, asserting, “There’s still a lot of confidence that our policies are going to be able to get inflation back down to our 2% target.” He made clear Fed’s determination to ensure this target is met, even if it means holding off on rate cuts until well into 2024.

                                         

                                        EU Spring Forecast: Upgraded GDP growth and inflation

                                          In its Spring 2023 Economic Forecast, European Commission presented a cautiously optimistic outlook for the Eurozone, with GDP growth projections revised upwards to 1.1% and 1.6% for 2023 and 2024 respectively. This positive adjustment, credited to a stronger-than-expected start to the year, exceeds winter forecasts of 0.9% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024.

                                          However, the report did not shy away from the challenges posed by inflation. Persisting core price pressures have led the Commission to revise its inflation forecasts for Eurozone to 5.8% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024, up from winter’s projected 5.6% and 2.5% respectively. On an annual basis, core inflation is set to average 6.1% in 2023 before falling to 3.2% in 2024, remaining above headline inflation in both forecast years.

                                          While the overall picture painted by the Commission is one of steady recovery, it also acknowledges increase in downside risks to economic outlook. The report warned that persistent core inflation could continue to squeeze household purchasing power and necessitate stronger response from monetary policy, leading to wider macro-financial implications.

                                          Potential threats also include renewed financial stress, which could trigger tightening of lending standards, and exacerbation of inflation by expansionary fiscal policies.

                                          The forecast also flagged the ongoing turmoil in the banking sector and broader geopolitical tensions as possible sources of further economic challenges. On the other hand, the Commission noted that more favorable developments in energy prices could lead to a faster decline in headline inflation, boosting domestic demand.

                                          Full EU Spring 2023 Economic Forecast here.