Fed’s Collins: Bringing down inflation will require more time

    Boston Fed President Susan Collins described current monetary policy as “well positioned” to adapt based on new economic data and the evolving economic outlook. She is “optimistic” that Fed can achieve 2% inflation target in a “reasonable amount of time” while maintaining a robust labor market. However, she now anticipates that reaching this goal will “take more time than previously thought.”

    Collins highlighted “recent upward surprises to activity and inflation”. This has led her to suggest that maintaining the current policy level might be necessary for a longer period than initially expected. She emphasized the importance of ensuring that inflation moves “sustainably toward 2%” before considering any policy adjustments.

    UK CPI rose to 9.1% yoy in May, another 40-yr high

      UK CPI accelerated further from 9.0% yoy to 9.1% yoy in May, matched expectations. That’s another record high since the series began in 1997. Also, based on indicate model, it’s the highest since around 1982, which was at nearly 11% yoy. CPI core, on the other hand, slowed from 6.2% yoy to 5.9% yoy, below expectation of 6.0% yoy.

      ONS said: “Rising prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, compared with falls a year ago, resulted in the largest upward contribution to the change in both the CPIH and CPI 12-month inflation rates between April and May 2022 (0.17 percentage points for CPIH). The largest offsetting downward contributions to change in the rates were from recreation and culture (0.10 percentage points for CPIH) and clothing and footwear (0.08 percentage points for CPIH).

      Full release here.

      Also released PPI input came in at 2.1% mom, 22.1% yoy in May. PPI output was at 1.6% mom, 15.7% yoy. PPI output core was at 1.50% mom, 14.8% yoy.

      Fed Evans: Inflation still unacceptably high, rates to rise to 3.5% by year end

        Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said today’s CPI data was the first “positive” reading since Fed started tightening. Yet, inflation is still “unacceptably” high”. He expects Fed to continue to raise interest rate to 3.25-3.50% by year end, and to 3.75-4.00 by the end of next year.

        Evans was optimistic that the economy will “continue to grow” in H2. “”I’m not looking for the economy to turn down in a significant fashion any time soon,” he added. He expected growth to be 1.5-2.0% next year.

        Fed’s Logan emphasizes need for tight financial conditions to curb inflation

          Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, in her speech on Saturday, emphasized the importance of maintaining tight financial conditions to prevent resurgence of inflation. She expressed concern that if these conditions are not sustained, progress made in controlling inflation could be reversed.

          Logan Logan underscored the significant role that restrictive financial conditions have played in “bringing demand into line with supply and keeping inflation expectations well-anchored”.

          However, she noted a recent reversal in this trend, pointing out that long-term yields have relinquished much of the tightening observed over the summer. She warned, “We can’t count on sustaining price stability if we don’t maintain sufficiently restrictive financial conditions.”

          Logan also addressed the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet runoff. She indicated that it might be appropriate to consider slowing the pace of this runoff, particularly as overnight reverse repurchase agreement balances approach lower levels.

          UK PM May bashed by British media for failure at EU summit

            UK media generally bashed Prime Minister Theresa May’s performance at the informal EU summit in Austria. There are headlines today like “May humiliated,” “Humiliation for May,” “Embarrassing rebuff for PM in Salzburg,” “Your Brexit’s broken,”etc. It’s rather common for UK politicians to get the harshest words back at home. Comments from the EU were so far rather gentle.

            House Minister James Brokenshire defended her in a BBC radio interview, saying ” the prime minister is getting the right deal for our country. She is sticking up for Britain, sticking up what will work for country. These are tough negotiations.”

            However, Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said, “Now that the EU has explicitly rejected it, the Chequers pretence has to stop. At the very least, single market/customs union membership must be back on the table and the Article 50 clock stopped to avoid a cliff edge”.

            Separately, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker urge EU and UK to be like “two loving hedgehogs”. And, “when two hedgehogs hug each other, you have to be careful that there will be no scratches.”

            China Shanghai SSE dropped -5.58% on trade war, next support at 2764

              China Shanghai SSE suffered steep heavy selloff today as re-escalation of US-China trade war. The SSE dropped -5.58% to close at 2906.46, just barely held on to 2900 handle. For the near term, 38.2% retracement of 2440.90 to 3288.45 at 2964.68 was taken out with ease. Further decline is now expected to be seen back to 61.8% retracement at 2764.66.

              In the bigger picture, we’re favoring the case that long term corrective fall from 5178.19 (2015 high) has completed with three waves down to 2440.90 (2019 low), on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Hence, we’d expect strong support below above mentioned 2764.66 to contain downside and bring reversal. This will, for now remain the preferred case, unless of course, if 2440.90 is firmly taken out.

              Germany ZEW dropped to -55.3, further decline in already weak economic growth

                Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment dropped slightly from -53.8 to -55.3 in August, below expectation of -52.7. Current Situation index dropped from -45.8 to -47.6, above expectation of -48.0.

                Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment dropped from -51.1 to -54.9, below expectation of -52.0. Current Situation Index rose 2.5 pts to -42.0. Eurozone inflation expectations rose 2.1 pts to -23.5, indicating a reduction of the high inflation rates within the next six months.

                “The ZEW Economic Expectations decrease again slightly in August after a sharp drop in the previous month. The financial market experts therefore expect a further decline in the already weak economic growth in Germany. The still high inflation rates and the expected additional costs for heating and energy lead to a decrease in profit expectations for the private consumption sector. In contrast, the expectations for the financial sector are improving due to the supposed further increase in short-term interest rates”,  comments Michael Schröder, researcher at ZEW and head of the ZEW financial market survey, on current results.

                Full release here.

                Dollar to listen to Powell’s comments on growth in inflation, some previews

                  Dollar is staying generally week today, except versus Kiwi and Yen. But FOMC announcement ahead could change its fortune. There is no chance for Fed to change federal funds rate at 2.25-2.50%. Also, Fed will, without a doubt, maintain its patient stance regarding any monetary policy adjustment.

                  As a reminder, monetary policy normalization is considered largely completed after December’s rate hike. Balance sheet run-off is also on track to completion later this week. Generally speaking, policymakers would need strong evidence of an emerging trend in either inflation or employment to make another move.

                  Yet, an important factor to watch is Fed chairman Jerome Powell’s response to strong growth but sluggish inflation. Dollar bears would like to hear Powell mentioning the downside risks in inflation and the readiness to cut interest rate should outlook worsens. On the other hand, Dollar bulls would like to hear Powell dismissing the talks of rate cut as being premature.

                  Either way, Dollar would pick up its near term direction from there.

                  Here are some suggested previews:

                  US ISM manufacturing dropped to 46.9, corresponds to -0.6% GDP annualized GDP contraction

                    US ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped from 47.1 to 46.9 in May, below expectation of 47.0. Looking at some details, new orders dropped from 45.7 to 42.6. Production rose from 48.9 to 51.1. Employment rose from 50.2 to 51.4. Prices dropped sharply from 53.2 to 44.2.

                    ISM said: ” “This is the seventh month of contraction and continuation of a downward trend that began in June 2022. That trend is reflected in the Manufacturing PMI’s 12-month average falling to 49.4 percent.”

                    “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI and the overall economy indicates that the May reading (46.9 percent) corresponds to a change of minus-0.6 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

                    Full US ISM manufacturing release here.

                    Fed Kashkari: Technically in a recession or not, Fed is committed to fight inflation

                      Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said in a CBS interview on Sunday, “we are a long way away from achieving an economy that is back at 2% inflation, and that’s where we need to get to.”

                      “Whether we are technically in a recession or not doesn’t change my analysis,” he added. “I’m focused on the inflation data. I’m focused on the wage data. And so far, inflation continues to surprise us to the upside. Wages continue to grow.”

                      “Typically, recessions demonstrate high job losses, high unemployment, those are terrible for American families. And we’re not seeing anything like that,” he said.

                      “Whether we are technically in a recession or not doesn’t change the fact that the Federal Reserve has its own work to do, and we are committed to doing it,” Kashkari said.

                       

                      S&P 500 hit record high as risk of imminent US-Iran war receded

                        S&P 500 and NASDAQ jumped to new record highs overnight as risk of imminent US-Iran war receded after President Donald Trump indicated he’s not expectation further retaliations for now. He said in Washington that “no Americans were harmed in last night’s attack by the Iranian regime… All of our soldiers are safe and only minimal damage was sustained at our military bases”. “Iran appears to be standing down, which is a good thing for all parties concerned and a very good thing for the world,” Trump added.

                        S&P 500 is holding well above 3212.03 support with recent consolidations. Hence, near term bullishness is maintained. Current up trend could target 161.8% projection of 2728.81 to 3027.98 from 2855.94 at 3339.99 next. However, upside momentum is clearly diminishing as seen in daily MACD. Upside should be limited around 3339.99 to bring consolidations at least. Meanwhile, break of 3212.03 will suggest that a short term top is formed and bring pull back to 55 day EMA (now at 3140.64).

                        ECB’s Cipollone: No further economic slack necessary

                          In a speech overnight, ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone suggested that additional tightening of monetary policy may not be necessary to rein in inflation. His remarks hint at a potentially less restrictive approach going forward, should inflationary pressures continue to subside.

                          Cipollone emphasized that the current economic conditions, “with demand still weak and inflation expectations anchored”, arguing against the need for monetary policy to “generate further slack to keep inflation in check”. This perspective underlines a significant shift from aggressive tightening to a more measured stance, possibly preparing the ground for a more accommodative monetary policy in the near future.

                          Unwinding of supply shocks offers room for demand to pick up “without fuelling inflation”. Additionally, the downturn in energy prices could allow for “some wage catch-up, especially if profits normalize.”

                          However, Cipollone also stressed the importance of a balanced approach to policy-making, pointing out that the path to the ECB’s inflation target would depend on a complex interplay of economic factors. Consequently, he advocated for a “data-driven” approach to future monetary-policy decisions.

                          Full speech of ECB’s Cipollone here.

                          BoE Broadbent expects very rapid growth over next quarters

                            BoE Deputy Ben Broadbent said in a Telegraph interview published over the weekend that UK would see “very rapid growth at least over the next couple of quarters”. Though, it’s a too son to call it a “roaring twenties” scenario. He added, “the burden of proof it seems to me should be as to why that wouldn’t happen, rather than why it would, so I have tended to be on that more optimistic side.”

                            He also saw “less of a disinflationary effect”. “The price rises for those hitting capacity limits are going to be bigger than the falls in prices for those seeing falls in demand”, he explained. “When you get the shift in demand, you’re going to run into bottlenecks in some areas, particularly in those areas where supply, too, has been hit for a particular reason”.

                            BoJ opinions: Flexible YCC needed while maintaining monetary easing

                              In the Summary of Opinions at the July 27-28 meeting, BoJ reinforced its commitment to monetary easing but highlighted a pressing need for more “flexibility” in its yield curve control approach policy.

                              The bank’s primary stance was evident among board members: Achieving a 2% price stability target “has not yet come in sight”, necessitating continued monetary easing and the preservation of the current YCC framework.

                              “There is still a significantly long way to go before revising the negative interest rate policy, and the framework of yield curve control needs to be maintained,” one member noted.

                              However, there will be potential market disruptions by strictly capping 10-year JGB yields at 0.5%, another opinion noted.

                              Also, given the “increasingly significant upside and downside risks” to prices outlook, flexible YCC is needed for allowing market-driven interest rates, ensuring liquidity, and preventing abrupt rate shifts.

                              The bank also remarked on the current inflation trends, suggesting they primarily stem from import inflation. A rise in earning power, especially for small and medium-sized firms, was emphasized as crucial before instituting broader YCC flexibility.

                              At the meeting, BoJ permitted a rise in the 10-year yield beyond its usual 0.5% limit, reaching up to 1%.

                              Full BoJ Summary of Opinions here.

                              ECB: Impact of trade tensions escalation could heighten financial stress and lower confidence

                                In a paper released today, ECB noted that last year’s increased in trade tensions and the repercussions of the tariffs implemented pose only a “modest adverse risk” to the global and euro area outlooks. Also,  impact of implemented tariffs and tariff announcements owing to uncertainty effects appears to have remained “confined to the targeted sectors” for the time being.

                                However, if trade tensions were to escalate once again, “the impact would be larger”.  Model-based simulations indicate that the medium-term direct impact of an escalation could be “sizeable, compounded by heightened financial stress and a drop in confidence.” The longer-term effects would be “even more pronounced”.

                                ECB also warned that “although free trade is often seen as one of the factors behind rising inequality both within and across countries, winding back globalisation is the wrong way to address these negative effects.” “A retreat from openness will only fuel more inequality, depriving people of the undisputed economic advantages that trade and integration bring.”. The paper urged that “countries should seek to resolve any trade disputes in multilateral fora”.

                                Full paper “The economic implications of rising protectionism: a euro area and global perspective“.

                                Fed Harker: In the upcoming months, we will slow the pace of our rate hikes

                                  Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said, “In the upcoming months, in light of the cumulative tightening we have achieved, I expect we will slow the pace of our rate hikes as we approach a sufficiently restrictive stance.”

                                  He added, “at some point next year, I expect we will hold at a restrictive rate for a while to let monetary policy do its work”. What happened after there will be driven by data. “If we have to, we can always tighten further, based on the data.”

                                  “What we really need to see is a sustained decline in a number of inflation indicators before we let up on tightening monetary policy,” he said, adding “we need to make sure inflation expectations don’t become unanchored.”

                                  US ADP employment grew 213k, job market weathered government shutdown well

                                    US ADP report shows 213k job growth in private sector in January, well above expectation of 170K. Prior month’s figure was revised down slightly from 271k to 263k.

                                    “The labor market has continued its pattern of strong growth with little sign of a slowdown in sight,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “We saw significant growth in nearly all industries, with manufacturing adding the most jobs in more than four years. Midsized businesses continue to lead job creation, however the share of jobs was spread a bit more evenly across all company sizes this month.”

                                    Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market weathered the government shutdown well. Despite the severe disruptions, businesses continued to add aggressively to their payrolls. As long as businesses hire strongly the economic expansion will continue on.”

                                    Full release here.

                                    BoJ Adachi: It’s difficult to envision a post-COVID-19 economy

                                      Bank of Japan board member Seiji Adachi said in a speech that it’s “difficult to envision a post-COVID-19 economy, at least for the time being”. The “process of making drastic changes to the socioeconomic structure can be painful”. It’s worth considering whether monetary might act as a “sort of safety net” for, or a “means of directly promoting” reforms.

                                      Also, he added, “if the pace of economic recovery is much slower than expected, it is not possible to completely rule out the risk that firms’ positive stance toward the outlook will be lost or that corporate bankruptcies and discontinuation of businesses will increase”. Thus, “it remains necessary in the COVID-19 era to maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance while carefully monitoring economic developments.”

                                      Full speech here.

                                      BoC to stand pat today, EUR/CAD extends rebound

                                        Bank of Canada rate decision is a major focus today. Speculation of a September hike cooled drastically as NAFTA negotiation stalled last week. Markets are now generally expecting BoC to hold the overnight rate unchanged at 1.50% today. Instead, markets are expecting BoC to signal a move in October. That signal is a key to Canadian Dollar’s near term movement. Meanwhile, negotiation with US will also resume today. But based on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s firm stance on Chapter 19 dispute resolution mechanism, it’s unlikely to a break through any time soon.

                                        Suggested readings on BoC and Loonie:

                                        Canadian Dollar recovers mildly today but remains the weakest one for the week, in particular against Dollar and Euro. EUR/CAD’s firm break of 55 day EMA and medium term falling trend line suggests that decline from 1.6151 has completed with three waves down to 1.4798. Immediate focus is now on 38.2% retracement of 1.6151 to 1.4798 at 1.5315. Sustained break there should confirm bullish reversal and bring stronger rally to 61.8% retracement at 1.5634 and above.

                                        USD/CNH staying in consolidation after strong China data, down trend in force

                                          China’s industrial production rose 7.0% yoy in November, up from October’s 6.9% yoy, matched expectations. Retail sales rose 5.0% yoy, up from October’s 4.3% yoy, but missed expectation of 5.1% yoy. Auto sales rose 11.8% yoy while household appliances sales rose 5.1% yoy. Communications equipment sales even jumped 43.6% yoy. Fixed asset investment rose 2.6% ytd yoy, up from October’s 1.8% ytd yoy, beat expectation of 2.6%. Private sector fixed-asset investment rose 0.2% ytd yoy, turned positive from October -0.7%.

                                          USD/CNH recovers mildly today as consolidation form 6.4960 extends. Downside momentum has been diminishing as seen in 4 hour MACD. But outlook stays bearish as long as 6.5968 resistance holds. The down trend from 7.1953 medium term top should still extend to 61.8% retracement of 6.0153 to 7.1953 at 6.4661. There we’d expect strong support to bring a sustainable corrective rebound.