How to benefit when BTC price goes down?

    Intro

    It is no secret that Bitcoin is volatile, as all cryptocurrencies are! The trick is, knowing when prices will move and what to do when the inevitable movement comes. Sounds simple, right?

    There are many investors out there that have heavily backed Bitcoin and expect the price to keep rising. But what if the value of a coin was not reaching the heights you expected to? Is this something to be overly concerned about?

    Since Bitcoin’s arrival on the global stage, it has experienced many highs and lows. Massive swings which happen regularly which can last days, span a few hours or move big, without warning, in the space of a few minutes.

    This article will explore why Bitcoin moves in the way it does and we will also look at how we can benefit from a downward price movement on the original, world-famous, digital asset.

    At CryptoRocket (www.cryptorocket.com) you can trade over 30 digital assets including the following Bitcoin pairs:

    BTC/USD, BCH/BTC, ETH/BTC, LTC/BTC, NEO/BTC, XMR/BTC, ZEC/BTC

    Volatility

    Volatility can be described as something liable to change drastically, quickly and without warning. This description is accurate when we are putting the definition next to Bitcoin.

    Traditional stock volatility is measured by the volatility index which was created by the Chicago Board Options Exchange in 1993. Also known as the VIX, what it does is represents a real-time market index showing the expected next 30 day movements with a focus on how volatile a stock might be. A useful tool for stock traders….

    Bitcoin does not have such a tool for Crypto investors to make use of. What we do know however is that Bitcoin is volatile and can move up to ten times as much as USD in a single trading day.

    So why is Bitcoin so volatile and what are the reasons behind it?

    One of the key reasons is that, although, in its 10th year, it is still relatively new technology. With new technology, new consumers need to get to grips with it and understand what the product is and how it functions. There are people out there, dare I say the older generation who can be more resistant to change when it comes to technology. This is evident when you look at statistics in supermarkets and which age groups are more willing to use self-checkout technology when purchasing their goods.

    People need time to adjust and adapt to change. Some people take longer than others, but in terms of how long currency and cold hard cash has been around, Bitcoin is still a new product and some people will need a little more encouragement to use technology as opposed to cash and banks.

    Bitcoin price is heavily affected by the news and media, especially when it comes to geopolitical events. In times of crisis within a country, new Bitcoin investors can surge within that country. This is especially true when examining the Cypriot banking crisis in 2013. The EU bailed out Cypriot banks but this came with terms and conditions. The cost of bailout was around the $20Billion mark yet the EU would only give Cyprus $13Billion. This meant that Cyprus would have to raise the further $7Billion themselves and they realized this by levying a tax on deposits.

    The tax was 6.75 percent from insured deposits of €100,000 or less, and 9.9 percent from uninsured amounts above €100,000. What this tax achieved was massive distrust in the banks from Cypriots and many Russians who live in Cyprus. The distrust in banks made trust in decentralized currency flourish. Bitcoin prices spiked thanks to this bailout.

    Many celebrities who have spoken out against Bitcoin and as influential people, this can truly have a knock-on effect on the value of a coin. Also, major incidents such as the closure of Silk Road harmed the price of Bitcoin. The FBI and Interpol shut down Silk Road in 2013 resulting in a life sentence for creator Ross Ulbricht. Many Bitcoin users lost trust in Bitcoin at this time and looked to sell as governments use rhetoric to suggest making Bitcoin follow some sort of compliance and regulation.

    Strategies to capitalize in downward movements and how to benefit

    As prices can rise, they can also crash and as investors, it is important to understand why and how we can manage this effectively. In 2018, the price of Bitcoin collapsed 61% – from an $8,300 high to $3,200 low in just six months showing just how much price can swing in a short period.

    There are a few things that can be done to capitalize on Bitcoin value taking a downward turn.

    For a start, a holder could straight up sell their Bitcoin and then buy again when the price reaches a severe low. Or low enough in the consumers’ opinion to make it worth buying before making an upturn.

    Traders can take advantage of a Bitcoin downturn by ‘going short’ or selling Bitcoin, staking money that Bitcoin will have a downward price movement – often referred to as profitable shorting.

    Users can also use margin trading or trading with leverage to further inflate profits. Leverage allows the ‘average trader’ to get involved in potentially high-profit trades without having to invest vast swathes of capital.

    In today’s modern trading world, thanks to high leveraged trading, more people than ever can speculate on markets with relatively low capital with the potential for high returns.

    It is advised that before trading with high leverage to investigate further and develop a trading strategy. Where can you do this you might ask? Many brokers in the marketplace offer a free to use ‘demo account’ for traders to perfect a strategy, get used to the available instruments and become accustomed to the MT4 trading platform.

    Start trading with CryptoRocket (www.cryptorocket.com) and benefit from a downward movement by using a max leverage of 1:100 for your favorite Cryptocurrency pairs with over 30 on offer including BTC/USD.

    Review the performance of other Cryptocurrencies to give yourself an idea of how the market is behaving and where Crypto investors are putting their money.

    Use a range of analysis to help form an overview of what is happening in the market. Draw on various types of media including social media, follow influencers in the Bitcoin world such as the Winklevoss twins. However, be wary when sourcing your information. John McAfee recently claimed that Bitcoin HAS to reach the million-dollar mark by the end of 2020. Recently he claimed this was a PR stunt – proving it is vital to collect your information from a range of sources. Bitcoin price today is at $8,745.56 a long way to go to a million in 11 months!

    Conclusion

    We have learned that Bitcoin is undoubtedly volatile and prices can and do take downturns. But it is not all doom and gloom. If you are holding onto Bitcoin, don’t stress too much about a negative price movement, instead, harness that energy and trade short to protect your investment!

    Bill Gates once said that if he could find an easy way to short Bitcoin, he would do. This was highlighted by one of the Winklevoss twins on Twitter. Guess what, Bill? You can short Bitcoin at CryptoRocket (www.cryptorocket.com). What’s more, they will be there for you 24/7 to assist you with all your account set up to get you started on your shorting adventure!

    Good luck!

    Japan PMI manufacturing finalized at 54.3 in Dec, confidence dipped

      Japan PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 54.3 in December, slightly lower than November’s 54.5. But that was well above 2021’s average of 52.7. Markit said output and new orders increased at slower rates. Employment level rose at fastest pace in nearly four years. Business optimism eased to four-month low.

      Usamah Bhatti, Economist at IHS Markit, said: “Domestic markets were buoyed by a gradual recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic however a sharp rise in cases, particularly in South Korea, hindered international demand and continued to disrupt supply chains across the sector… Delivery delays and material shortages remained a dampener on production and sales… Average lead times across the final quarter of 2021 deteriorated further… Though still optimistic, Japanese goods producers were wary of the continued impact of the pandemic and supply chain disruption, which resulted in confidence dipping to the softest since August.”

      Full release here.

      Trump pledges dramatic actions after DOW dropped -2013pts

        Wall street experienced massive selloff overnight, on double whammy of global coronavirus pandemic and oil price war. DOW declined -2013.76 pts or -7.79%, S&P lost -7.60%, NASDAQ dropped -7.29%. 10-year yield hit another record low at 0.398 before closing at 0.499, down -0.207. Fed fund futures are now pricing in 100% chance of -75bps rate cut to 0.25-0.50% at March 18 meeting.

        President Donald Trump said at the White House that he plans to announce “very dramatic” actions to support the economy on Tuesday. The measures will include payroll tax cut and “very substantial relief” for industries hit by the coronavirus outbreak.

        DOW’s steep fall from 29568.57 resumed earlier than we expected, by breaking 24681.01 temporary low. Further decline should be seen to 100% projection of 29568.57 to 24681.01 from 21702.34 at 22214.78 in the near term. The projection sits inside an important long term support range, with 55 month EMA at 22632.99, and 38.2% retracement of 6469.95 to 29568.57 at 20744.89. We’d expect strong support from there to end the current leg of selloff, and bring sustainable rebound.

        China CFETS lowers Dollar weighting in RMB index, increase Euro weighting

          Starting on January 1, US Dollar’s weighting in the China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS) RMB Index would be lowered. CFETS is overseen by the PBoC and the RMB index measures the value of Yuan against a basket of 24 major currencies, with weights based on international trade.

          After the adjustment, Dollar’s weighting will be lowed from 22.4% to 21.59%. Euro’s weighting will be increased from 16.34% to 17.40%. CFETS said the adjustment was to make the index more representative, taking into account trade data from 2018.

          BoE to hike another 25ps, a look at bearish GBP/AUD

            BoE is widely expected to continue with its tightening cycle, and raise Bank rate by 25bps to 1.00% today. Focus is firstly on the voting, on the whether any hawks would push for faster pace of hikes. Secondly, BoE might make a decision to actively shrink its balance sheet. Thirdly the new economic projections will also be scrutinized for the policy path and economic outlook.

            Here are some previews:

            GBP/AUD is a pair to watch for the near term, considering the possible return of risk-on sentiment too. The corrective recovery from 1.7171 might have completed at 1.7884, after failing to break through 55 day EMA. That is, medium term down trend might be ready to resume.

            For the near term, deeper decline is in favor to retest 1.7171 support first. Firm break there will confirm this bearish case, and target 61.8% projection of 1.9218 to 1.7171 from 1.7884 at 1.6619. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.7884 resistance holds.

            OECD outlined two equally probable scenarios, single- and double- coronavirus hit

              OECD outlined two “equally probable scenarios” for the world economy in a report released today. In the “single-hit scenario”, second wave of coronavirus pandemic is avoided. Global economic activity would fall -6% in 2020, with unemployment rates jumping to 9.2%, up from 5.4% in 2019. “living standards fall less sharply than with a second wave but five years of income growth is lost across the economy by 2021”.

              In the “double-hit scenario”, a second wave of infections hits before year-end. A renewed outbreak of infections would trigger a return to lock-downs. World economic output would plummet -7.6% this year, before climbing back 2.8% in 2021. OECD unemployment rate would nearly double to 10% with little recovery in jobs by 2021.

              Full release here.

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              Bitcoin completed three wave correction, eye EMA resistance for confirmation

                Bitcoin’s correction from 41964 extended to as low as 28989 but quickly rebounded back above 30k handle. It’s now even trading above 33k. The development argues that such correction might have completed with a three wave structure, with bullish convergence condition in hourly MACD.

                Focus is now on 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 34334). Sustained break there will affirm this bullish view and bring stronger rise back to 40000/41964 resistance zone. However, break of 31741 minor support will extend the correction with another fall through 28989.0 before completion.

                Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence dropped to 12.0, emerging markets and US trade disputes weigh

                  Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence overall index dropped to 12 in September, down from 14.7, below expectation of 13.8. Current situation index dropped to 35.0, down from 37.3. Expectations index also dropped to -8.8, down from -5.8. Sentix noted that “the weakness of the emerging markets, especially in Asia and Latin America, is weighing on economic assessments. But also homemade European problems.”

                  Sentix also noted that two developments are “particularly noticeable in the search for the causes” for the deteriorations. One is “weakness in the international arena”, in particular in Asia and Latin America. And, “due to the solid US dollar and political crises, the emerging markets are in the crossfire.”

                  For Europe itself, there are problems “especially at the political level”. Also, “external, international catalyst, which is also intensified by the trade dispute between the USA and almost the rest of the world, is now having a noticeable negative impact.”

                  Full release here.

                  Eurozone CPI finalized at 9.2% yoy in Dec, core CPI at 5.2% yoy

                    Eurozone CPI was finalized at 9.2% yoy in December, down from November’s 10.1% yoy. CPI core (ex energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) was finalized at 5.2% yoy, up from prior month’s 5.0% yoy. The highest contribution came from food, alcohol & tobacco (+2.88%), followed by energy (+2.79%), services (+1.83%) and non-energy industrial goods (+1.70%).

                    EU CPI was finalized at 10.4% yoy, down from prior month’s 11.1% yoy. The lowest annual rates were registered in Spain (5.5%), Luxembourg (6.2%) and France (6.7%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Hungary (25.0%), Latvia (20.7%) and Lithuania (20.0%). Compared with November, annual inflation fell in twenty-two Member States, remained stable in two and rose in three.

                    Full release here.

                    Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 47.5, lowest since 2013

                      Eurozone PMI manufacturing was finalized at 47.5 in March, revised down from 47.6, down from February’s 49.3. It’s also the lowest level since April 2013, and the second straight months of sub-50 reading. Markit noted there was the biggest monthly decline in new orders since late 2012. Also, confidence hits lowest level in over six years.

                      Among the countries, Germany PMI manufacturing was revised further lower to 44.1, an 80-month low. Italy PMI manufacturing was at 47.4, 70-month-low. France PMI manufacturing was revised down to 49.7, below 50, but it’s just a 3-month low. Australian PMI manufacturing was at 48-month low at 50.0. Netherlands PMI manufacturing was at 33-month low at 52.5. However, Greece PMI manufacturing was at 54.7, 12-month high.

                      Commenting on the final Manufacturing PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

                      “The March PMI data indicate that the eurozone’s manufacturing sector is in its steepest downturn since the height of the region’s debt crisis in 2012. The survey is indicative of output falling at a quarterly rate of approximately 1% in March, suggesting that the January rebound from one-off factors late last year seen in the latest official data is likely to prove short lived.

                      “Looking at the forward-looking indicators, downside risks have intensified, and the trend could clearly deteriorate further in the second quarter. New orders are falling at a rate not seen since 2012, and disappointing sales mean warehouses are filling with unsold stock. The orders-to-inventory ratio – a key indicator of the future production trend – is at its lowest for almost seven years. Expectations of output for the coming year are also the gloomiest since 2012.

                      “Concerns over trade wars, tariffs, rising political uncertainty, Brexit and – perhaps most importantly – deteriorating forecasts for the economic environment both at home and in export markets, were widely reported to have dampened business activity and confidence.

                      “Cost cutting has become more evident as firms grow more risk averse, notably with respect to hiring. Job losses were reported in both Germany and Italy, where the downturn in demand is doing the most damage. However, France’s manufacturing sector is also now back in decline, Austria’s goods-producing sector has stalled, Spain is close to stagnation and growth has lost considerable momentum in the Netherlands, highlighting the increasingly broad-based nature of the current deterioration.”

                      Full release here.

                      US non-farm payrolls grow 114k in Jul, unemployment rate rises to 4.3%

                        US non-farm payroll employment grew only 114k in July, well below expectation of 176k. That’s all well below average monthly gain of 215k over the prior 12 months.

                        Unemployment rate jumped from 4.1% to 4.3%, above expectation of 4.1%. Participation rate ticked up by 0.1% to 62.7%.

                        Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% mom, below expectation of 0.3% mom. Annual wages growth slowed from 3.8% yoy to 3.6% yoy, below expectation of 3.7% yoy.

                        Full US non-farm payroll release here.

                        German ZEW: Dramatic deterioration in current situation, indicative of weak Q4

                          German ZEW economic sentiment improved to -17.5 in December, up from -24.1, better than expectation of 025.0. However, current situation index dropped to 45.3, down from 58.2, missed expectation of 55.6. Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment improved slightly to -21.0, up from -22.0, and beat expectation of -23.2. Eurozone current situation dropped -6.1 to 12.1.

                          ZEW President Achim Wambach noted in the release that the rise in expectation “should not be over-interpreted”. He added that “the assessment of the economic situation has worsened dramatically for both Germany and the Eurozone” And, this is “indicative of relatively weak economic growth in the fourth quarter”. Also, uncertainties remain in terms of the “looming international trade dispute and Brexit, which have a particularly negative impact on private investment and Germany’s exports”.

                          Full release here.

                          Gold breaks out of triangle, heading to 1862 support and below

                            Gold breaks out of triangle pattern today and hits as low as 1890.17 so far. The development suggests that corrective pattern from 2075.18 is starting another falling leg for 1862.55 support first. Break there will target 61.8% retracement of 1670.66 to 2075.18 at 1825.16. At this point, we’d expect strong support around there to contain downside to complete the correction.

                            However, it should be noted that the strong break of 55 day EMA could be a sign of larger correction. This is not our preferred scenario yet. But firm break of 1862.55 would argue that Gold is indeed correcting the whole rise from 1160.17. In that case, deeper fall would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1160.17 to 2075.18 at 1725.64 in the medium term, which would then be close to 55 week EMA (now at 1696.48).

                            UK DExEU Rycroft: No-deal Brexit plans in place, economic analysis of Chequers plan ongoing

                              In UK, Philip Rycroft, Permanent Secretary at the Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU) told the parliament that the plans for no-deal Brexit are “in place”. And, “they are at a level of detail which satisfies the team at DEXEU … we are constantly monitoring those plans to make sure they are kept up to date.”

                              Also Rycroft said there were studies on the economic impact of Prime Minister Theresa May’s Chequers plan and “the work is ongoing”.

                              UK PM May to hold cabinet meeting on Brexit today, meet EU leaders tomorrow

                                UK Prime Minister Theresa May is going to meet her cabinet today to unify a stance on Brexit negotiation, in particular the Irish backstop. Ahead of the cabinet meeting, Housing Minister James Brokenshire urged other fellow ministers to support May in “making further progress this week”. And he emphasized that “whilst making sure that it is our entire United Kingdom that leaves the European Union, the single market and the customs union because it is our UK that is just so important.”

                                Speaking to the parliament yesterday, May urged EU for not letting the stand-off over backstop to derail Brexit negotiation. However, an unnamed official was quoted by Reuters complaining that May’s messages “demonstrate that finding an agreement will be even more difficult than one could have expected.”

                                French minister for European Affairs Nathalie Loiseau said that “we want a good deal and we think it is possible.” But she also said that France was preparing for a no-deal Brexit and have already made legislative proposals on the scenario. An unnamed official was quoted by Reuters saying that the government “need to prepare faster” for no-deal. And ” it is in the interests of citizens and businesses to wrap up the exit agreement as swiftly as possible.”

                                May is expected to tell EU leaders her views at the summit dinner tomorrow in Brussels.

                                Mid-US update: Risk aversion dominates, Yen surges but bulls seem refusing to commit further

                                  Yen remains the strongest one for today at the time of writing as global market rout spreads to the US. Swiss Franc trails as the second strongest.

                                  On the other hand, Australian Dollar is the weakest one while Dollar is not that far away.

                                  DOW is currently down -1.45 at 24949 after dropping to as low as 24768.79 earlier today. The break of 24899.77 support indicates resumption of the whole decline from 26951.81 and suggests more downside ahead. S&P 500 is down -1.98% while NASDAQ is even worse, down -2.15%.

                                  Treasury yields are also in red with 10 year yield down -0.49 at 3.324.

                                  However, we’d like to point out that despite the strong rally, Yen bulls seem refusing to commit yet. USD/JPY is held by 111.94 minor support for now. EUR/JPY breached 128.32 low but quickly recovered. More is needed to confirm the strength of Yen.

                                  In Europe:

                                  • FTSE closed down -1.24% at 6955.21, broke 7000 psychological level
                                  • DAX closed down -2.17% at 11274.28
                                  • CAC closed down -1.69% at 4967.689, below 5000 psychological level.
                                  • Italian 10 year yield jumped 0.10003 to 3.58 after EU rejection of Italian budget
                                  • German 10 year yield is down -0.0407 at 0.411. German-Italian spread is back above 310.

                                  Fed Williams: Two rate hikes in 2019 would make sense in a really strong economy

                                    Speaking on CNBC, New York Fed President John Williams warned that “there are risks to that outlook that maybe the economy will slow further”. He also emphasized that Fed is “listening” and it’s “ready to re-assess and reevaluate our views and…policy stance”. And, Fed will “go into the new year with eyes wide open, willing to read the data and listen to what we are hearing, re-assess our economic outlook, and take the right policy decisions.”

                                    To be more specific, Williams said “Something like two rate increases would make sense in a really strong economy going forward. But we’re data dependent, we’re going to adjust our views dependent on how the outlook changes.”

                                    NZD/USD dips after RBNZ hike, staying mildly bearish

                                      NZD/USD softens slightly after RBNZ rate hike and near term outlook stays mildly bearish with 0.7051 resistance intact. Deeper fall should be seen to 0.6858 support first. Break there will affirm the case that larger down trend from 0.7463 is resuming. Further decline should then be seen through 0.6804 support to 38.2% retracement of 0.5467 to 0.7463 at 0.6731 next.

                                      Dollar index continues with down trend after FOMC minutes

                                        Dollar remains generally pressured after FOMC minutes revealed that members unanimously supported keeping asset purchase pace unchanged. The greenback is only partially supported, more notably against Yen by surging treasury yield. Overall, Dollar is still one of the weakest for the week together with Yen and Sterling.

                                        “All participants judged that it would be appropriate to continue those purchases at least at the current pace, and nearly all favored maintaining the current composition of purchases,” the minutes noted. “A couple of participants indicated that they were open to weighting purchases of Treasury securities toward longer maturities.”

                                        Further, “some participants noted that the committee could consider future adjustments to its asset purchases — such as increasing the pace of securities purchases or weighting purchases of Treasury securities toward those that had longer remaining maturities — if such adjustments were deemed appropriate,” the minutes said.

                                        Dollar index is extending the medium term down trend from 102.99 for now and further decline is expected as long as 91.01 resistance holds. DXY is on track to a key support zone, between 88.25 and 61.8% projection of 102.99 to 91.74 from 94.74 at 87.88. We’d expect further loss of momentum approaching this zone. Tentatively, some strong support should be seen there, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound.

                                        CBRT announced measures on Turkish Lira and FX liquidity management

                                          Full statement below.

                                          Press Release on Financial Markets

                                          To support financial stability and sustain the effective functioning of markets, the following measures have been introduced:

                                          I. Turkish lira liquidity management:

                                          1) In the framework of intraday and overnight standing facilities, the Central Bank will provide all the liquidity the banks need.

                                          2) Discount rates for collaterals against Turkish lira transactions will be revised based on type and maturity, thus providing banks with flexibility in their collateral management. Through this regulation, the discounted value of banks’ current unencumbered collaterals is projected to increase by approximately 3,8 billion Turkish liras.

                                          3) Collateral FX deposit limits for Turkish lira transactions of banks have been raised to 20 billion euros from 7,2 billion euros.

                                          4) As cited in the Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy Text for 2018, when deemed necessary, in addition to one-week repo auctions, which are the main funding instrument of the Central Bank, traditional repo auctions or deposit selling auctions may be held with maturities no longer than 91 days.

                                          5) For the days with relatively higher funding need, more than one repo auction may be conducted with maturities between 6 and 10 days.

                                          6) To provide flexibility in banks’ collateral management, upon the request of banks, a portion of or the entire amount of the winning bids in one-week repo auctions will be allowed to be used in deposit transactions instead of repo transactions at the Central Bank Interbank Money Market with the same interest rate and maturity.

                                          II. FX liquidity management:

                                          1) Banks will be able to borrow FX deposits in one-month maturity in addition to one-week maturity.

                                          2) The Central Bank will resume its intermediary function at the FX deposit market. Accordingly, through the intermediation of the Central Bank, banks will be able to borrow from and lend to each other at the FX deposit market as per the rules set by the Implementation Instructions on the Foreign Exchange and Banknotes Markets.

                                          3) Banks’ current foreign exchange deposit limits of around 50 billion US dollars may be increased and utilization conditions may be improved if deemed necessary.

                                          4) Banks will continue to purchase foreign banknotes from the Central Bank via foreign exchange transactions within their pre-determined limits at the Foreign Exchange and Banknotes Markets.

                                          The Central Bank will closely monitor the market depth and price formations, and take all necessary measures to maintain financial stability, if deemed necessary.