Fed’s Collins: Additional policy easing required, final destination still uncertain

    Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated in a speech that “additional policy easing is needed” as monetary policy remains “at least somewhat restrictive.”

    She acknowledged that the “final destination” of policy adjustments is “uncertain”, and emphasized the importance of a “careful and deliberate” approach. FOMC should take the time to “holistically assess” data and evaluate its implications for the economic outlook and balance of risks.

    Collins described the economy as being in a “good place overall,” with inflation on track to return to Fed’s 2% target, albeit unevenly. She noted that while the labor market is healthy, job growth is becoming increasingly concentrated in fewer sectors. Collins warned that “any further slowing in hiring would be undesirable”.

     

    Fed’s Cook confident inflation moving toward target

      Fed Governor Lisa Cook said in a speech that the US economy is in a “good position”. She remains “confident” that inflation is moving sustainably toward Fed’s 2% objective, while acknowledging that the path may be “occasionally bumpy.” Cook observed that employment risks are weighted to the downside but have “diminished somewhat” in recent months.

      Cook reiterated that the direction for monetary policy remains “downward” but stressed that the “magnitude and timing of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”

      Highlighting the need for flexibility, she emphasized that monetary policy is not on a “preset course” and that she is prepared to respond to changing conditions.

      Full speech of Fed’s Cook here.

      Fed’s Bowman flags inflation risks as progress stalls amid tight labor market

        Fed Governor Michelle Bowman expressed concerns over the recent slowdown in inflation reduction efforts, emphasizing that while there has been “considerable progress in lowering inflation since early 2023,” this progress “seems to have stalled in recent months.”

        While acknowledging the complexity of monetary policy decisions, Bowman expressed particular concern about the price stability side of the Fed’s dual mandate, given that unemployment remains at historically low levels. “I see greater risks to the price stability side of our mandate, especially while the labor market remains near full employment,” she said in a speech.

        Bowman is known for her hawkish stance on monetary policy. In September FOMC meeting, she dissented from the majority decision to cut rates by 50bps, advocating instead for a smaller 25bps reduction. Her comments reinforce her cautious approach toward easing monetary policy further, especially given the risks of persistent inflation in a strong labor market.

        Full speech of Fed’s Bowman here.

        BoE’s Ramsden supports gradual rate cuts, but highlights inflation undershooting risks

          BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden expressed support for the MPC’s cautious approach to easing interest rates, citing economic uncertainties tied to recent fiscal measures and labor market data. Ramsden emphasized the need for a “watchful and responsive” strategy given lingering questions about the effects of higher employer taxes and potential misrepresentations in labor statistics.

          However, Ramsden suggested he might endorse a faster pace of rate cuts if uncertainties ease and disinflationary pressures become more evident. He noted, “Were those uncertainties to diminish and the evidence to point more clearly to further disinflationary pressures… then I would consider a less gradual approach to reducing Bank Rate to be warranted.”

          BoE has projected that inflation will remain above its 2% target until early 2027, driven in part by fiscal stimulus and higher minimum wages under the Labour government. Ramsden acknowledged this scenario as “plausible” but also placed significant weight on an alternative outlook where inflation declines more quickly. This could occur through “more symmetry in wages and price setting, with less domestic inflationary pressure.”

          Looking ahead, Ramsden predicted that employers are likely to implement pay settlements at the lower end of the 2–4% range, which could lead to inflation staying closer to 2% in the early part of the forecast period. However, under this scenario, inflation could dip “more materially later on, lower than in the MPC’s published forecasts,” he added.

          ECB’s Stournaras: Avoiding inflation undershoot becoming policy priority

            Greek ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras emphasized at an event overnight that inflation in Eurozone is now projected to reach the 2% target “sooner than earlier expectations,” likely by early 2025 rather than the fourth quarter as previously anticipated. This shift suggests the ECB’s policy focus may increasingly pivot to ensuring “we don’t undershoot our inflation objective”.

            Stournaras highlighted markets are “extremely sensitive” to disappointing growth readings. He warned, “If negative surprises for growth come in and we fail to unwind our restrictive monetary-policy stance at the appropriate pace, unnecessary market turbulence could be induced.”

            While he acknowledged that the September inflation reading of 1.7% marked a success in controlling price pressures, he cautioned it should also serve as a “wake-up call.” Prolonged monetary restrictions, he warned, could risk “undershooting of our inflation target over the medium term and impede growth”.

            UK CPI jumps to 2.3% in Oct, core CPI rises to 3.3%

              UK CPI reaccelerated from 1.7% yoy to 2.3% yoy, above expectation of 2.2% yoy. Core CPI (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose by 3.3% yoy, ticked up from prior month’s 3.2% yoy and above expectation of 3.1% yoy.

              CPI goods annual rate rose from -1.4% yoy to -0.3% yoy, while the CPI services annual rate rose from 4.9% yoy to 5.0% yoy.

              On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.6% mom, above expectation of 0.5% mom.

              Full UK CPI release here.

              Australia Westpac leading index hits 0.26%, decisive breakaway from year-long sluggishness

                Australia’s Westpac Leading Index moved decisively into positive territory in October, rising from -0.20% in September to +0.26%.

                This marks a significant shift, as the index had been hovering in slight negative territory, between -0.3% and flat, for most of the past year. The October reading is not only the first clear above-trend result since November 2023 (+0.16%) but also the strongest since July 2022 (+0.63%).

                The improvement in the index provides a “constructive signal” for the economy’s future momentum. Westpac’s outlook aligns with this shift, forecasting an acceleration in economic growth from a nadir of 1.0% in mid-2024 to 1.5% by year-end and 2.4% by the end of 2025.

                Full Australia Westpac leading index release here.

                Japan’s exports rebound by 3.1% yoy in Oct, but trade deficit persists

                  Japan’s exports rose 3.1% yoy in October, reaching JPY 9,427B, a strong recovery from the -1.7% yoy decline in September, which marked a 43-month low.

                  This rebound was primarily driven by a 1.5% yoy increase in shipments to China, buoyed by strong demand for chipmaking equipment. However, exports to the US, Japan’s largest trading partner, fell -6.2% yoy, reflecting weakness in auto shipments.

                  On the import side, growth remained modest at 0.4% yoy, totaling JPY 9,888B. This resulted in a trade deficit of JPY -461B for the month, the fourth straight month of shortfall.

                  Seasonally adjusted data showed exports declining -0.7% mom to JPY 8,882B, while imports ticked up 0.2% mom to JPY 9,239B, leading to a seasonally adjusted trade deficit of JPY -358B.

                  Full Japan trade balance release here.

                  Fed’s Schmid: Path and destination of rate cut yet to be determined

                    Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid highlighted in a speech overnight the decision to lower rates this year as a reflection of the “growing confidence” in inflation’s moderation.

                    This optimism, he explained, stems from signs that “both labor and product markets have come into better balance in recent months.”

                    While acknowledging this progress, Schmid cautioned, “It still remains to be seen how much further interest rates will decline or where they might eventually settle.”

                    Schmid also addressed concerns about the implications of large fiscal deficits on monetary policy. He emphasized that such deficits are not inherently inflationary, as long as Fed maintains its commitment to the 2% inflation target.

                    However, he warned that this approach could necessitate “persistently higher interest rates,” creating tensions with political authorities. He noted, “History has shown that efforts to avoid higher interest rates by accommodating deficits often result in higher inflation.”

                    Canada’s CPI rebounds to 2% in Oct, services inflation slows to lowest since Jan 2022

                      Canada’s inflation accelerated in October, with the annual headline CPI rising to 2.0% yoy, slightly above expectations of 1.9% yoy and up from September’s 1.6% yoy. Slower decline in gasoline prices was a key driver, with prices falling -4.0% yoy compared to a sharper -10.7% yoy drop in September. Excluding gasoline, the all-items CPI maintained a steady rate of 2.2% yoy, consistent with August and September.

                      Goods prices saw a modest rebound, rising 0.1% yoy following -1.0% yoy decline in September. Services inflation moderated to 3.6% yoy, the smallest increase since January 2022. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.4% mom, reversing a similar decline from the previous month.

                      Core inflation measures also exceeded expectations. CPI median increased from 2.3% yoy to 2.5% yoy, CPI trimmed rose from 2.4% yoy to 2.6% yoy, and CPI common ticked up from 2.1% yoy to 2.2% yoy. All three exceeded consensus forecasts.

                      Full Canada CPI release here.

                      BoE’s Bailey links tax rises to need for measured policy easing

                        BoE Governor Andrew Bailey highlighted in a parliamentary committee hearing today that the Labour government’s tax increases, outlined in the Autumn Budget, support the central bank’s gradual approach to easing monetary policy.

                        He explained, “There are different ways in which the increase in employer National Insurance Contributions announced in the Autumn Budget could play out in the economy.” This cautious approach, he said, will allow the Bank to observe how these fiscal changes interact with other inflation risks.

                        Bailey also cautioned about persistent wage pressures, with firms surveyed by the BoE expecting wage growth of 4% over the next year, even as the labor market shows early signs of loosening. He emphasized the importance of carefully monitoring these developments.

                         

                        ECB’s Panetta calls for shift to neutral amid stagnant demand

                          Italian ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta emphasized today that restrictive monetary policies are “no longer necessary”, given inflation’s proximity to the target and sluggish domestic demand.

                          Panetta noted, “In the current phase, we should focus more on the sluggishness of the real economy,” highlighting the risk that a lack of recovery could drive inflation well below target, creating challenges for monetary policy to counteract.

                          He advocated for normalizing the ECB’s stance and moving toward a neutral or even “expansionary territory” if necessary, stressing, “We are probably a long way from the neutral rate.” Panetta also reminded that lowering rates below neutral at the bottom of a cycle aligns with standard policy frameworks historically followed by both ECB and Fed.

                          Separately, Estonian ECB Governing Council member Madis Muller shared that, “I wouldn’t ever want to say anything is a done deal,” but he expressed confidence that “we can again reduce interest rates in December.”

                          Eurozone CPI finalized at 2% in Oct, core CPI at 2.7%

                            Eurozone inflation was finalized at 2.0% yoy in October, a rise from September’s 1.7% yoy. Core CPI, excluding volatile components such as energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, held steady at 2.7% yoy. Among contributors, services had the largest impact, adding +1.77 percentage points to the overall rate, followed by food, alcohol, and tobacco (+0.56 pp) and non-energy industrial goods (+0.13 pp). Energy, on the other hand, exerted downward pressure, subtracting -0.45 pp from the headline figure.

                            Inflation across the broader EU came in at 2.3% yoy, up slightly from September’s 2.1%. Member states showed a wide divergence in inflation rates. Slovenia recorded no inflation at 0.0%, while Lithuania and Ireland posted modest increases of 0.1%. At the other end of the spectrum, Romania led with the highest annual rate of 5.0%, followed by Belgium and Estonia at 4.5% each. Compared to September, inflation rose in 19 member states, remained stable in six, and declined in two.

                            Full Eurozone CPI final release here.

                            RBA minutes highlight need for multiple good quarterly inflation reports before easing

                              In the minutes from the November meeting, RBA emphasized “minimal tolerance” for a prolonged period of high inflation, acknowledging the already “lengthy period” of elevated prices. They underscored the need to observe “more than one good quarterly inflation outcome” before concluding that a sustainable disinflation trend was underway.

                              Members discussed various scenarios that could challenge the forecasts, necessitating adjustments in policy.

                              One critical scenario revolved around weaker consumption. If consumption proved “persistently and materially weaker” than anticipated and threatened to significantly lower inflation, RBA suggested that a rate cut might be warranted. Conversely, stronger recovery in consumption could mean the current monetary stance would need to “remain in place for longer”.

                              The labor market also featured prominently in deliberations. Should employment conditions ease more sharply than expected, resulting in rapid disinflation, the Board acknowledged that looser monetary policy might become appropriate. On the other hand, if the economy’s supply capacity turned out to be “materially more limited” than assumed, a tighter stance could be required.

                              External risks were also assessed, including potential major shifts in US economic policy following the presidential election, uncertainty around the scope of China’s anticipated stimulus measures, and the broader implications of rising global government debt levels.

                              Full RBA minutes here.

                              BoE’s Greene cautions against aggressive rate cuts amid persistent services inflation and wage growth

                                BoE MPC member Megan Greene warned during an event overnight that services inflation remains stubbornly high, with wage growth exceeding levels consistent with the 2% inflation target. “There’s some risk that wage growth might be stickier than we would hope,” she said, adding that this could keep both services and overall inflation elevated.

                                Greene emphasized the importance of a cautious approach, stating that “the risk of cutting too early or too aggressively is a greater risk than going a bit more slowly.”

                                Feedback from firms suggests wage growth could settle closer to 4%, well above the desired level. Companies may respond to higher costs by increasing prices, reducing employment or hours, investing in productivity-enhancing capital, or absorbing costs into profit margins, she noted.

                                She also highlighted the UK’s vulnerability to external shocks as an open economy. “Historically speaking, about a third of the moves in our curve in the UK were influenced by things happening outside the UK. Now it’s about half.”

                                Greene pointed to the outsized influence of the US Treasury curve, describing it as a “drunken dragon” that heavily impacts the UK market, especially amid global geopolitical risks and shifts in US economic policy under the president-elect.

                                ECB’s Stournaras: December 25bps cut optimal

                                  Greek ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras told Bloomberg today that a 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming December meeting would represent “an optimal reduction”.

                                  He acknowledged that interest rates remain firmly in restrictive territory, emphasizing that even with continued cuts to reach the neutral rate, “it’s still a long way to go,” indicating multiple reductions are likely ahead.

                                  Stournaras also highlighted the optimistic revision in inflation expectations. “The baseline is that now, inflation falls more rapidly than we thought in our September forecasts,” he noted, adding that ECB could meet its 2% inflation target on a sustainable basis by early to mid-2025 rather than by the end of the year.

                                  ECB’s Makhlouf: Pretty overwhelming evidence needed for 50bps cut in Dec

                                    Irish ECB Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf signaled caution today, emphasizing that an interest rate cut at the December 12 meeting is not guaranteed.

                                    “It would be going a bit far to say an ECB interest rate cut next month is ‘in the bag,’” he stated, adding that the evidence s would need to be “pretty overwhelming” for a more aggressive 50bps reduction.

                                    Makhlouf also addressed the uncertainty surrounding the impact of US President-elect Donald Trump’s administration on inflation dynamics. He stressed that it would be “premature” to base monetary policy decisions on assumptions about Trump’s fiscal and trade policies, stating, “I do think it would be premature to come to conclusions as to exactly what it is that the new US administration is going to do.”

                                    Eurozone goods exports rises 0.6% yoy in Sep, imports falls -0.6% yoy

                                      Eurozone goods exports rose 0.6% yoy to EUR 237.8B in September. Goods imports fell -0.6% yoy to EUR 225.3B. Trade balance reported a EUR 12.5b surplus. Intra-Eurozone trade fell -1.0% yoy to EUR 215.5B.

                                      In seasonally adjusted term, goods exports rose 0.4% mom to EUR 237.6B. Goods imports fell -0.8% mom to EUR 224.1B. Trade balanced reported EUR 13.6B surplus, larger than expectation of EUR 7.9B. Intra-Eurozone trade fell -0.9% mom to EUR 212.9B.

                                      Full Eurozone trade balance release here.

                                      BoJ’s Ueda Highlights wages as key inflation driver, reaffirms tightening path

                                        BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated in a speech today that the central bank remains committed to its gradual policy tightening path, conditional on the realization of its economic and price outlook. However, the timing of adjustments will depend on evolving “economic activity and prices” as well as “financial conditions.”

                                        Ueda stated that monetary policy decisions would hinge on assessments at each Monetary Policy Meeting, taking into account the latest data and projections. Key considerations include underlying inflation trends and financial conditions, with a focus on balancing risks to economic activity.

                                        On inflation, Ueda highlighted that the effects of previous cost pass-throughs from higher import prices are waning. However, he noted that “inflationary pressure stemming from wage increases is projected to strengthen” as economic activity and wage growth remain robust.

                                        While underlying inflation currently lags the 2% target, it is expected to rise moderately and align with the price stability target in the second half of the projection period through fiscal 2026.

                                        Full speech of BoJ’s Ueda here.

                                        NZ BNZ services rises to 46, still extremely challenging conditions

                                          New Zealand’s BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index rose slightly from 45.7 to 46.0 in October. Despite the marginal improvement, the index stayed well below the 50 threshold, indicating ongoing contraction in the sector for a fourth consecutive month. The result also falls significantly short of the long-term average of 53.1.

                                          The proportion of respondents reporting negative sentiment increased from 58.5% to 59.1%. Concerns about the cost of living and broader economic challenges continued to dominate.

                                          BNZ Senior Economist Doug Steel emphasized the sector’s struggles, stating that “although it is contracting at a much slower pace than it was in June (when the PSI was 41.1), the PSI has been hovering between 45 and 46 over the last four months.” He noted that while some business surveys indicate an improving outlook, current conditions remain “extremely challenging”.

                                          Full NZ BNZ PSI release here.