CFTC Commitments of Traders – Risk Currencies to Gain Ground after Weaker-than-Expected Nonfarm Payrolls
In the last week of August, bets on USD index futures fell on both sides as traders pondered Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech and awaited the August employment report. As speculations of Fed's tapering tamed after both events, it is likely that the euro, as well as commodity...
Kiwi Gains Support from Hawkish RBNZ
New Zealand dollar was the only major currency rose against the US dollar in August, despite speculations over Fed’s tapering and renewed lockdown. We believe policymakers’ proactive reassurance of an October rate hike would likely make the RBNZ the first major central bank to begin rate hike after the...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Risk Currencies Got Dumped. Reversal Likely in Coming Week
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended August 24, NET SHORT of USD index futures gained +1 151 contracts to 20 362. Speculative long positions added +1 151 with no change in shorts. European currencies got dumped in the reporting weeks on resurgence...
Explaining JPY’s Resilience Amidst Fed’s Taper Talks
Japanese yen has been rather stable over the past weeks despite volatility in other major currencies. It's resilient performance over the past few days despite heightened FOMC tapering talks is no accident. We summarize three major drivers of this.
Funding Currency Firms on Risk Aversion
A key theme of USD’s strength...
Powell More Upbeat about Job Market and Inflation, Stopped Short of Hinting about the Timing of Tapering
The closely-awaited Jackson Hole speech by Fed chair Powell reaffirmed that QE tapering would begin later this year. While being more upbeat about the progress of employment and inflation, Powell warned of the downside risks posed by the rapid spread of the delta variant. He also attempted to de-link...
Loonie’s Outlook Remains Hinged on Crude Oil Price
Commodity currencies suffered last week but Canadian dollar was the worst performer. Loonie declined -2.93% in the past week, making it the weakest amongst major currency pairs. Other than the broad-based strength in US dollar amidst speculations of early taper by the Fed, the sharp selloff in crude oil...
Jackson Hole Symposium Preview: Affirming Likelihood of Taper Announcement in November while Striking Balance between Strong Data and Pandemic Resurgence
Following the FOMC minutes, the attention turns to the Jackson Hole symposium later this week. We expect that the Fed would make formal announcement of QE tapering at the November meeting. With a tapering size of US15B at each meeting, the entire QE program would be complete by September...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Risk Currencies Got Dumped on Hopes of Fed’s Tapering and Resurgence of Pandemic
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended August 17, NET SHORT of USD index futures dropped -115 contracts to 19 211. Speculative long positions slipped -515 contracts while shorts decreased -400 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures jumped +23 783...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Bet Aussie to Go Lower as Resurgence of Pandemic Triggers Lockdown Extension
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended August 10, NET SHORT of USD index futures added +445 contracts to 19 326. Speculative long positions rose +2 514 contracts while shorts increased +2 069 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures fell...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Expect GBP Futures to Return to Net Long after Hawkish BOE
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended August 3, NET SHORT of USD index futures gained +2 340 contracts to 18 881. Speculative long positions added +1 703 contracts while shorts decreased -637 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures sank...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Short of GBP Futures will Likely Trim Next Week
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended July 27, NET SHORT of USD index futures rose +4 353 contracts to 16 541. Speculative long positions added +2 976 contracts while shorts decreased -1 377 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures...
Aussie to Stay Weak in Near-term as Lockdown Measures to Weigh On Third Quarter Growth. RBA could Delay Tapering
AUDUSD is prone to be the weakest performer among majors in July. The selloff accelerated 2 weeks ago as the resurgence of coronavirus has triggered lockdown in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. In the near-term, sentiment over the currency pair could remain weak as state governments would...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Loonie Fell In Line with Crude Oil’s Decline
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended July 20, NET SHORT of USD index futures gained +931 contracts to 12 188. Speculative long positions added +1 280 contracts while shorts increased +349 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures fell -13...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Increased Bets in USD Futures amidst Price Rebound
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended July 6, NET SHORT of USD index futures gained +8 017 contracts. Speculative long positions added +2 309 contracts while shorts decreased -5 708 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures fell -9 956...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Longs Declined in European Currencies
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended June 29, NET SHORT of USD index futures slipped -62 contracts. Speculative long positions added +629 contracts while shorts increased +567 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures dropped -1 911 contracts to 87...
Gold Rarely Declines with Real Yield. This Time Due to USD Strength
Gold price got dumped, falling to the lowest level in over 2 months. Losing over -7% against USD in June, the selloff this time has been driven by strong US dollar, rather than higher yields. The greenback is darling of the market recently, thanks to strong economic data, a...
Japanese Yen Prone to be Worst Performer against US Dollar in 1H21
Japanese yen is the worst performing major currency against US dollar in 1H21. A more hawkish Fed and actual inflation (divergent monetary policy), widening yield differential and inflation expectations are the key drivers to yen’s depreciation. After price correction, persistence of these drivers could further strengthen USDJPY, though to...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Major Currencies Weakened against USD on Hawkish Fed
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended June 22, NET SHORT of USD index futures decreased -1 793 contracts. Speculative long positions slipped -1 114 contracts while shorts were down -2 907 contracts. The greenback gained ground after the Fed turned more hawkish...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Expect USD Net Short to Drop Next Week on Greenback’s Rebound
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended June 15, USD index futures drifted to NET SHORT of 2 303 contracts. Speculative long positions dropped -6 273 contracts while shorts decreased -2 219 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures soared +10...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Higher Euro Trimmed as ECB Refrained from Hinting “Taper”
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended June 8, NET LENGTH of USD index futures dropped -1 212 contracts to 2 891. Speculative long positions rose +1 679 contracts while shorts increased +2 891 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures...