CFTC Commitments of Traders – USD Bets Trimmed as Fed’s Policy Rolls Out as Planned
USD bulls lost ground as the greenback corrected from its peak. As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended September 25, NET LENGTH of USD index dropped -447 contracts to 37 009 contracts. Both speculative long and short positions decreased. During the week, the...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Greenback Rose Across the Board
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended September 4, NET LENGTH of USD index dropped -1 085 contracts to 33 486 contracts for the week. Both speculative long and short positions increased. During the week, the DXY index gained +0.76%. The greenback rose...
Tale of Two Crises – Comparing Argentina and Turkey
Since our last discussion in May, the financial situation in Argentina has not improved. Rather, it has deteriorated rapidly over the past few months. Last week, President Mauricio Macri announced that he had asked the IMF to accelerate disbursement of its 3-year stand-by loan worth of US$ 50B, after...
Italy’s Debt Problem Returns to Spotlight as Agencies Threaten to Downgrade
There is a comeback of concerns over Italy’s financial situation as next year’s fiscal budget would soon be revealed. As an election promise, the populist M5S/League coalition government could likely propose a number of expansionary measures including tax cut and increase in welfare. Such worries have been exacerbated by...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Euro at Risk as Concerns over Italy Rekindle
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended August 28, NET LENGTH of USD index added +449 contracts for 34 571 contracts for the week. Both speculative long and short positions dropped, suggesting the market was decisive about its outlook. during the reporting week,...
The Real Meaning of “No Deal” Brexit
The market is thrilled by comments from Michel Barnier, EU chief negotiator on Brexit, who noted that the EU is “prepared to offer Britain a partnership such as there never has been with any other third country”. We do not see any breakthrough from those comments, just as we...
Death of NAFTA? Or Just Trump’s Lip Service
The US and Mexico announced that they have reached a bilateral trade deal. Notwithstanding the facts that the preliminary agreement does not involve Canada and lacks details, and the US Congress would not vote on it until next year, President Trump has declared victory in ending NAFTA- a trilateral...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets in USD Might Drop Next Week as Powell Dovish at Jackson Hole
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended August 21, NET LENGTH of USD index rose +2 089 contracts for 34 122 contracts for the week. However, this was driven by the decline in speculative short positions offsetting that of longs. during the reporting...
Jackson Hole Symposium Preview: Two Questions on Fed’s Monetary Policy
While it is not a practice for Fed chairs to offer hints on the monetary policy outlook at the annual Jackson Hole symposium, their speeches at the event have always caught market attentions and sometimes move the market. At the upcoming meeting on August 23-28, Fed Chair Jerome Powell...
CFTC Commitments of Traders: EUR Turned to NET SHORT Amidst Contagion Fear
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended August 14, NET LENGTH of USD index increased further, by +1 931 contracts, to 30 102 for the week. This was driven by the fact that the increase in speculative long positions doubled that of shorts.
EUR...
Hong Kong Government is to Blame for the Economic Deadlock, as HKMA Intervened Again
Sharp moderation of Hong Kong GDP growth in 2Q18 and the recent intervention by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) to prevent HKD from weakening below 7.85 against USD have once again revealed the challenge facing Hong Kong – a economy highly dependent on China and a monetary policy...
Impacts of Turkish Turmoil on Eurozone Limited. Yet, Market Sentiment is Contagious
Selloff in Turkish lira and euro has stabilized but the worst is not yet over. As we mentioned in the previous report, the ultimate reason for lira’s slide is President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's failed economic and monetary policy. The Turkish central bank TCMB, since his re-election as the President, ...
Traders Deepened Bets on Higher US Dollar; Long Positions for Safe Haven Currencies Might Turn Positive Next Week on Heightened Geopolitics
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended August 7, speculative long positions increased +1 039 contracts in USD index futures, while shorts dropped -607 contracts, resulting in an increase in NET LENGTH to 30 102 contracts for the week.
For European currencies, traders...
Erdogan is to Blame For Turkish Lira’s Free Fall
While US sanctions against Turkey have dominated news headlines, recent selloff of Turkish lira is a vote of dissent to the policy of the new government. After his “re-election”, President Tayyip Erdogan has grabbed tighter control of the economic and monetary policies. However, the policies implemented have failed to...
Traders Trimmed USD Positions ahead of FOMC and Job Data Last Week
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended July 31, traders trimmed bets on USD index (DXY) futures. Speculative long positions slid -372 contracts while shorts declined -3 557 contracts, resulting in an increase in NET LENGTH to 28 456 contracts for the week....
Only USD and EUR Maintained Net Length Positions amidst Monetary Policy Divergence
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended July 24, bets on a higher US dollar increased modestly by +1 818 contracts. However, thanks to a -4 529 reduction in short positions, NET LENGTH for USD Index (DXY) futures added +6 347 contracts to 25...
Theresa May Walks Brexit Tightrope after Two Senior Officials Quitted, Key Dates ahead
While the optimists suggest that the latest political turmoil in the UK has increased the chance of a “soft" Brexit which is positive for UK’s economic outlook and the British pound, we see ongoing uncertainty in the negotiations with the EU. Pro-Brexit Dominic Raab has replaced the David Davis...
Bets for Falling GBP Likely Increase Further as Political Turmoil Heightens Brexit Uncertainty
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended July 3, bets for US dollar increased modestly on both sides. Speculative long positions for USD Index (DXY) futures added +2 399 contracts while shorts added +1 953 contracts, resulting in a Net LENGTH of 18 672...
After Historic Election, Mexico’s Future Still Depends on Trade and Fed
Andres Manual Lopex Obrador (a.k.a. AMLO), leader of the leftist National Regeneration Movemen (MORENA), won the presidency with landslide victory at Mexico’s general election held last Sunday. Gaining 53% of the vote, his support is far higher than his major competitor Ricardo Anaya (22.5%) of the National Action Party....
Traders Reduced Bets on USD on Profit-taking after Recent Price Rally
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended June 26, bets for US dollar trimmed on both sides as the DXY index rose to a one-year higher on June 21. Speculative long positions for USD Index (DXY) futures added +586 contracts while shorts added +432...