BOE Preview – Delaying Rate Hike to February 2022
We expect the BOE to stand pat at this week’s meeting. October’s GDP came in weaker than expected, and the renewed restrictive measures to curb spread of the new Omicron variant could affect household consumption and put a brake on the job market improvement. We expect policymakers to wait...
Dollar and Yen Rise on Slightly Negative Sentiment, Aussie Tumbles
Dollar and Yen rise following slightly negative risk sentiment. Major Asian indexes are generally lower, following the mild pull back in US overnight. Australian Dollar is leading commodity currencies lower. European majors are mixed with Euro trading a bit firmer than the others. Focuses will firstly turn to UK...
Dollar Mildly Higher as Traders Turn Cautious, CAD Dips
Dollar and Sterling firm up mildly in overall quiet markets today. Commodity currencies are, on the other hand, trading lower. Investors are turning cautious ahead of the wave of central bank meetings later this week, in particular on Fed's decision to faster the tapering pace. Oil prices also dip...
Markets Quiet Ahead of Fed, ECB, BoE, SNB, BoJ, and Lots of Data
The markets are rather quiet in Asian session. Stock indexes are trading higher but no follow through buying is seen. In the forex markets, major pairs and crosses are stuck inside Friday's range, with commodity currencies a touch firmer. Activity could remain subdued with an empty calendar for today....
FOMC Preview – Fed to Double Size of QE Tapering
The Fed this week will announce acceleration of QE tapering. With inflation approaching 7%, policymakers would likely revise its view on inflation outlook and "retire" the word "transitory". The updated economic projections and median dot plots showing members' interest rate projections would also be released. The Fed funds rate...
Markets Back in Risk-on Mode, But Forex Mixed Awaiting Central Bank Meetings
Investors seemed to have already put Omicron risks behind last week, with markets turned back into risk-on mode. But the forex markets were indeed quite mixed. Commodity currencies were the strongest ones, but the rebounds are looking more like corrective. Yen was the worst performer, but the pull-backs were...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Risky Currencies Recovered Weeks of Selloff
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended December 3, NET LENGTH of USD index futures fell -1 014 contracts to 34 865. Bets on long and short increased +1 048 contracts and 2 062 contracts, respectively . Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT of...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Long Position in Crude Oil. Rebound Triggered Profit-taking
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended December 7, NET LENGTH of crude oil futures slumped -20 002 contracts to 367 232. Speculative longs declined -19 277 contracts while shorts added +725 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH for heating oil dropped -2...
Dollar Shrugs Strong CPI Reading, Extending Sideway Trading
The multi-decade high in US CPI reading appears to be failing trigger any move in Dollar. The greenback is staying in very tight range in general. Commodity currencies are indeed trying to regain upside momentum. Yen is set to end as the worst performing, followed by Swiss Franc and...
Markets Turn Quiet ahead of US CPI, Dollar Awaits Range Breakout
The markets generally turn quiet in Asian session as markets are look forward to consumer inflation data from US. Before that UK GDP will also be a major focus. Commodity currencies, in particular Canadian Dollar, are losing much upside momentum even though they're still the strongest ones. Yen's earlier...
Dollar Recovers on Surprisingly Low Jobless Claims
Dollar rebounds mildly entering into US session, as supported by surprisingly good jobless claims report. Risk-on rallies in the stock markets also losing some momentum, helps lift Yen mildly. As for the week so far, Aussie remains the best performer, followed by other commodity currencies. Swiss Franc and Yen...
Aussie Rises Further as Risk-On Sentiment Continues
Market sentiment is generally positive in Asian session today. Australian and New Zealand Dollar are extending near term rebound. Other currencies are mixed, though. Canadian Dollar is paring some gains, after the non-eventful BoC rate decision. Sterling is trying to recover from yesterday's selloff. Dollar and Yen are mixed.
Technically,...
US Crude Oil Inventory Dropped, While Petroleum Stockpile Gained Last Week
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks rose +4.27 mmb to 1222.16 mmb in the week ended December 3. Crude oil inventory slipped -0.24 mmb to 432.87 mmb, compared with consensus of a -1.71 mmb decrease....
Sterling Tumbles as UK Said to Return to Restrictions, Pfizer News Lifts Sentiments
Much volatility is seen in the markets today, in particular in Sterling. The Pound tumbled sharply on news that the UK Government to going to activate a plan B and impose some restrictions as soon as on Wednesday, due to spread of Omicron. Yet, sentiments recovered After Pfizer said...
Canadian Dollar Strong on Risk-On Sentiment, as BoC Awaited
Following return of risk-on sentiment, commodity currencies are currently the best performers for the week. On the other hand, Swiss Franc and Yen are trading broadly lower, followed by Euro and Dollar. The economic calendar is very light today and main focus will be on BoC policy decision. At...
Risk-on Sentiment Coming Back, Aussie Extending Rebound
Risk-on sentiment is gather steam today with major European indexes trading broadly higher, while US futures point to higher open. WTI crude oil is also up another 2.5% and is back above 70 handle. In the currency markets, Australian Dollar is leading the rebound in commodity currencies, with help...
BOC Preview – Reiterating Rate Hike in First Half 2022 amidst Strong Economic Data
Following a hawkish move in October, we expect the BOC to keep the powder dry this week. Policymakers should acknowledge the strong GDP growth and job market data, while cautioning over the uncertainty of the Omicron variant. They are also expected to reiterate the stance that the rate hike...
RBA Stayed Put, Cautiously Optimistic Over Domestic Economy
The RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 0.1% and the asset purchase program at AUD 4B/week. Policymakers maintained a cautiously optimistic outlook over economic recovery despite Omicron uncertainty. Again, policymakers reiterated that the next meeting (February) would be the time to discuss the pace of QE purchases.
The central...
Yen Crosses Rebounding as Sentiments Turned Positive
Overtone in the markets turned positive with the strong rebound in US stocks overnight, while Asia indexes follow higher. Australian Dollar is recovering broadly after RBA stood pat and gave nothing new to the markets. On the other hand, Yen is trading broadly lower for now, followed by Dollar...
RBA Preview – Keeping Powder Dry on Mixed Data and Omicron Uncertainty
The RBA is widely expected to leave the cash rate unchanged at 0.1%. Given the mixed economic data flow since the last meeting, the uncertainty of the Omicron variant and the scheduled discussion about asset purchases in February, policymakers would stand pat at the upcoming meeting. They would also...