Euro Stays Strong, While Markets Stabilize on China’s Stimulus and Hopes for Trump’s Tariff Compromise
Despite the steep selloff on Wall Street overnight, sentiment appears to have improved somewhat in Asia. Investors found reasons for optimism as China set a 2025 GDP growth target of around 5% and announced stimulus measures to counter escalating tensions with the U.S. In a notable shift, Beijing raised...
‘Trumpcession’ Concerns Drag Dollar Down, Fed Rate Cut Bets Surge
Dollar fell broadly today, an unusual development in contrast to recent rallies on escalating trade tensions and tariff announcements. Market sentiment soured as traders began to weigh the risks of a “Trumpcession,” a new term coined to describe the potential for US President Donald Trump’s policies to drive the...
Yen Strengthens as Trade War 2.0 Formally Begins, Lifted Further by Trump’s Currency Warning
The latest round of US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China officially took effect today, marking the formal start of what many are calling "Trade War 2.0" under US President Donald Trump. Markets had been bracing for impact, and the steep selloff in US stocks overnight confirmed that investors...
“Coalition of the Willing” Fuels Euro Strength, Boosts Defense Outlook
European markets saw a strong rally today, with notable fund inflows driving gains in DAX and Euro. Investor sentiment was boosted by expectations of increased military spending after the announcement of the UK and France-led “Coalition of the Willing” to support Ukraine. FTSE and Sterling also benefited from the...
Bitcoin Roars Back as Trump Plans Strategic Crypto Reserve; Tariffs, Geopolitics, NFP and ECB to Move Markets
Bitcoin led the charge in an otherwise quiet Asian session, rebounding over 20% from last week’s low after a major announcement from US President Donald Trump. The cryptocurrency sector saw dramatic relief from its steep selloff last week, as Trump revealed the creation of a strategic crypto reserve, including...
Safe-Haven Demand Fuels Dollar Rally Amid Trade, Geopolitical Turmoil
Market sentiment took a decisive turn for the worse last week, with risk aversion dominating across asset classes. The combination of deteriorating domestic economic conditions in the US and heightened global uncertainties has fueled concerns that risk appetite could weaken further. Equities faced renewed selling pressure, yields dropped sharply.
Domestically,...
Sentiment Lifted by In-Line PCE Data, But Tariffs Could Limit Optimism
Risk sentiment received a boost in early US trading as January’s PCE inflation data came in line with expectations, lifting hopes that Fed may have room to cut rates in the first half of the year. Both headline and core PCE inflation slowed, adding to expectations that disinflation remains...
Markets Reel Under Trade War Fears, Dollar Gains Traction, Gold Falls
Global stock markets are under heavy selling pressure as risk-off sentiment dominates the final trading day of February. The selloff intensified across major indices, with Japan’s Nikkei plunging -3% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index down -2.8%, following the steep declines in US equities overnight. Investors are increasingly wary...
Dollar Surges as Trump Confirms Tariff Plans, Euro Looks Vulnerable
Dollar surged sharply across the board in early US session trading after US President Donald Trump reinforced his tariff plans, clarifying uncertainties that had lingered in the market. In a Truth Social post, Trump confirmed that the tariffs on Canada and Mexico will "go into effect, as scheduled" on...
Dollar Attempts Another Comeback, Aussie Lags
Dollar traded broadly higher in Asian session, trying to stage a comeback after a failed rally attempt overnight. Renewed focus on tariffs appears to be driving some of the greenback’s momentum. Meanwhile, broader market sentiment is just steady following Nvidia’s strong earnings report, with lingering concerns over competition from...
Dollar Gathers Momentum, Gold Cools Off, Market Jitters Ahead?
Dollar appears to be gathering steam for a stronger, sustainable near-term rebound, although the precise catalyst remains unclear. One contributing factor an undercurrent of risk aversion, which is reflected in the broad selloff in the Australian and New Zealand Dollars. Yet, the overall market picture is mixed, as US...
Dollar Stuck Between Falling Yields and Risk Aversion, Struggles for Direction
Dollar remains stuck in a tug-of-war of conflicting forces. On one side, extended decline in US Treasury yields is pressuring the greenback, while on the other, risk aversion is offering some support.
10-year Treasury yield fell to its lowest level since December, looks on track to test the next Fibonacci...
Greenback Drops Ahead of Consumer Data, Risk Sentiment in Focus
Dollar weakened notably against European majors and Yen as markets transitioned into US session, despite subdued overall trading activity. The decline was largely driven by extended fall in US 10-year Treasury yield, which hit its lowest level since mid-December.
Beyond geopolitical and trade war concerns, market focus has turned toward...
Dollar Rises Slightly After Trump Reaffirms March 4 Tariff Plans for Mexico and Canada
Dollar gained slightly overnight, buoyed by mild risk aversion and ongoing tariff threats from President Donald Trump. However, the lack of follow-through momentum in the greenback suggests traders remain hesitant to commit to large directional bets amid persistent policy uncertainty.
US stock market weakness has been most pronounced in the...
Euro Fades After Brief German Election Boost
Euro’s brief post-election rally faded quickly, as investors welcomed CDU/CSU’s victory but remained cautious due to lingering uncertainties around coalition formation and fiscal policy. While a relatively centrist government comprising CDU and the Social Democrats would provide stability, challenges surrounding the "debt brake" reform and defense spending continue to...
Euro Gains Modestly After German Election, But Coalition Uncertainty Keeps Rally in Check
Euro opened the week slightly higher against all major currencies, as traders reacted positively to the German election results. Conservatives CDU/CSU secured victory, setting Friedrich Merz up as the next chancellor. However, Euro's gains remain limited, as uncertainty over coalition talks persists, with negotiations potentially dragging on until Easter.
While...
Risk Aversion Returns as US Tariff Fears Resurface, Dollar Recovers Late
Geopolitical developments dominated global headlines last week, particularly surrounding peace negotiations over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and evolving US-Ukraine relations. While US President Donald Trump’s tariffs took a backseat, concerns over their impact on consumer spending and economic growth resurfaced by the end of the week, triggering renewed risk...
Euro Briefly Dips on Soft PMI, CAD Shrugs Off Robust Retail Sales
Trading is rather subdued in the forex markets today, with most major pairs and crosses stuck within yesterday’s range. Loonie failed to react to significantly stronger-than-expected retail sales data. Euro dipped earlier following weak PMI reports, but selling pressure quickly fizzled out. Yen saw some volatility during the Asian...
Yen Rally Pauses as BoJ Signals Bond Market Intervention, Dollar Soft
Yen volatility remains a key theme in Asian session today. Stronger-than-expected Japanese inflation data provided further justification for BoJ’s ongoing policy normalization, reinforcing speculation that the central bank may hike rates sooner than previously anticipated.
However, Yen’s rally lost momentum after Japan’s 10-year JGB yield pulled back sharply. This dip...
USD/JPY Drops Below 150, Japan CPI to Decide Next Move
Yen continues to dominate the relatively quiet forex markets today, with USD/JPY slipping below the key 150 psychological. The move is largely fueled by rising speculation that BoJ may tighten policy again sooner than expected, a sentiment that's also reflected in 10-year JGB yield's rally to another 15-year high....