Action Insight

Euro dips further today as markets are lighting up positions ahead of the first round of French presidential election this Sunday. Far right Marine Le Pen and centrist Emmanuel Macron are still tipped to come out as winners and head to the run-off on May 7. But yesterday's terrorist attack in Paris could stir up some uncertainties. In particular, far left leader Jean-Luc Melenchon has rather strong momentum in the past two weeks and emerged as a real contender. Euro would very likely suffer if Melenchon could slip into the run-off and take Macron's place. Both Le Pen and Melenchon are euro-sceptic, just at two different extremes. But the common currency could have a relieve rally next week if the election delivers no surprise.

Euro dropped notably against Dollar overnight after news of terrorist attack in Paris, just ahead of presidential election this Sunday. A shooting occurred on the famous Champs-Elysees shopping boulevard, resulting in death of one police and injuries of two others. The Islamic State group claimed responsibility for the shooting. The incident disrupts the election campaign as conservative candidate Francois Fillon cancelled his trip to the Alps to "first show our solidarity with the police". Far-left Jean-Luc Melenchon said urged people to "attend to our duties as citizens: no panic, we shouldn't interrupt our democratic process". Far-right Marine Le Pen said she was "deeply angry" on the shooting and sad for the victims. Centrist Emmanuel Macron said that "this threat, this imponderable problem, is part of our daily lives for the years to come."

Dollar trades mixed in early US session with notable weakness against Euro and Swiss Franc. The forex markets are relatively steady elsewhere, with Aussie and Loonie trading to recover while yen extends its pull back. US initial jobless claims rose 10k to 244k in the week ended April 15, slightly above expectation of 241k. Continuing claims dropped -49k to 1.98m in the week ended April 8, lowest since April 2000. Philly Fed survey dropped to 22.0 in April, down from 32.8, below expectation of 25.6. In other markets, US futures point to a mildly higher open and stocks could pare back some of yesterday's steep loss. Gold is hovering around 1280 while crude oil is heading to test 50 psychological level. .

Markets continue to trade generally calmly for the moment. US equities turned mixed overnight with DJIA losing another -118.79 pts or -0.58% to close at 20404.49. S&P 500 dropped -4.02 pts or -0.17% to close at 2338.17. NASDAQ, however, gained 13.56 pts or 0.23% to close at 5863.03. Asian stocks are steady in tight range as Nikkei and HK HSI recover with slight gain. US treasury yield also stabilized with 10 year yield closing up 0.023 at 2.202. Gold continues to feel heavy ahead of 1300 handle and dips through 1280 handle briefly. The selloff in WTI Crude oil is more apparent as it reaches as low as 50.09, comparing to last week's high at 53.76. In the currency markets, commodity currencies are trading generally higher. New Zealand dollar is given additional boost from inflation data. Japanese Yen, on the other hand, trades broadly lower with Dollar for today.

Markets are stabilizing from yesterday's sharp volatility. Major European indices are trading in tight range with DAX and CAC holding mild gains at the time of writing. US indices also open nearly flat and are bounded in tight range. In the currency markets, Dollar recovers broadly today but is staying deep in red against European majors for the week. Commodity currencies remain broadly weak too. Sterling remains the strongest major currency this week even though it's paring some gains against Dollar and other Europeans. In other markets, Gold is trading lower by at it continues to struggle to find buying to push through 1300 handle. WTI crude oil is also staying in consolidation.

Markets are generally trading in risk averse mode after UK Prime Minister Theresa May's surprised call for snap election. That also adds to the backdrop of geopolitical tensions in North Korea and Syria. DJIA closed down -113.64 pts or -0.55% at 20523.28. S&P 500 lost -6.82pts or -0.29% to close at 2342.19. Nonetheless, both indices are still trying to draw support from 55 day EMA. In Asian session, China leads other Asian markets lower as SSE composite index drops -40 pts or -1.23% at the time of writing. Hong Kong HSI is losing -150 pts or -0.63%. Nikkei, however, recovers and is trading up 0.2% at the time of writing.

Are world leaders nowadays keen on breaking their own promises? Just days after Donald Trump's reversal of campaign pledge to label China as "currency manipulator", UK PM Theresa May announced that she would seek MPs' support for an early general election to be held on June 8. The news came in less than a month after her affirmation that "the next election will be in 2020". GBPUSD erased earlier losses and jumped to a 4.5-month high of 1.2755 after the announcement, on expectations that a landslide victory of the Conservative Party would strengthen May's mandate in the 2-year Brexit negotiations.

Sterling jumps broadly today as currency markets respond positive to UK Prime Minister Theresa May's call for a snap election this June. GBP/USD powers through 1.2614 near term resistance and reaches as high as 1.2695 so far. GBP/JPY also took out 137.51 near term resistance which now suggests trend reversal. FTSE 100, however, is trading down -1.8% as stocks investments clearly dislike the uncertainties. Meanwhile, Euro also follows the Pound higher as markets are calm on French election. US Dollar, on the other hand, reversed earlier gains, against European majors but stays firm against commodity currencies.

China's economic activities surprised to the upside in 1Q17. GDP expanded +6.9% y/y, beating consensus of, and 4Q16's, +6.8%. Growth was led by a +7.7% expansion in the tertiary sector, followed by a +6.4% growth in the secondary industry. Economic activities also strengthened across the board in March. Retail sales expanded +10.9%, accelerating from +9.5% in the combined January to February period. Industrial production (IP) growth improved to +7.6%, the fastest pace since end-2014, from +6.3% in the January-February period. The market had anticipated a mild drop to +6.2%. Fixed asset investment (FAI) increased 9.2% y/y to March, up from +8.9% in the January-February period. Looking into the details, investment gained +19.8% in the primary sector, +4.2% in the secondary sector and +12.2% y/y in the tertiary sector. Moreover, private investment expanded +7.7% y/y in March, up from +6.7% in the prior month, while the growth in public investment slowed to +13.6%, from +14.4% in February. For the first quarter of the year, retail sales grew +10%, IP rose +6.8% with manufacturing output up +7.4% while fixed asset investment expanded +9.2%, of which real estate investment and tech investment up +9.1% and +22.6%, respectively.

RBA minutes for the April meeting came in less upbeat than the March one, underpinning concerns over developments in Australia's labor and housing market. Policymakers concluded by noting that "developments in the labour and housing markets warranted careful monitoring over coming months". Note, however, that the meeting was held ahead of the release of the March employment report which showed that full-time payrolls rose the most in nearly 30 years. Aussie slumped after the minutes to a 3-day low 0.552.

Dollar and US equities came back from holiday stronger. The markets are looking through the geopolitical uncertainties in North Korea. Instead, they listened to comments from US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Mnuchin conceded that completing tax reforms through Congress before August deadline was "highly aggressive to not realistic at this point". However, he noted that it would "probably delayed a bit" because of the healthcare. Meanwhile, he noted that the border-adjustment tax, seen as a sticking point among Republicans, could be excluded in the tax reform.

With less than a week to go, concerns over two euro-sceptic candidates, far-right Marine Le Pen and far-left Jean-Luc Melenchon entering the run-off have clearly escalated. Support for Melenchon has surged since the second debate held earlier this month. We believe such scenario is still having a low chance based on analysis on trends in polls. And, our base case remains unchanged that centrist Emmanuel Macron and Le Pen will enter the second round. However, following Brexit referendum and US president Donald Trump's victory, there has been increasing doubts over the predictivity of opinion polls.

Worries on geopolitical tensions and US policies were the two main forces driving the markets in a holiday shortened week. Yen surged broadly and the relative strength to Swiss Franc argues that worries are mainly on the tensions in Korean Peninsula. The rally in Yen was also accompanied safe haven flows into US treasuries. Long term yields tumbled sharply to the lowest level this year, breaking key near term support levels. Gold surged to as high as 1290.7 and is having its sight on 1300 handle. WTI crude oil also extended recent rise before losing some momentum ahead of 55.24 resistance. In the currency markets, Dollar ended as the weakest major currency as talked down by US President Donald Trump, and dragged down by falling yields. Euro ended as the second weakest ahead of French presidential election and dragged down the Swiss Franc.

Dollar is recovering against European majors in early US session but stays weak against commodity currencies. The greenbacks is still trading as the weakest major of the week, troubled by comments from US President Donald Trump regarding it's strength. Released from US, initial jobless claims dropped 1k to 234k in the week ended April 8, below expectation of 245k. It's the 110 straight week of sub-300k reading, longest streak since 1970 and indicates a healthy job market. Continuing claims dropped 7k to 2.03m in the week ended April 1. PPI, however, dropped -0.1% mom March but accelerated to 2.3% yoy. PPI core rose 0.0% mom, and accelerated to 1.6% yoy. Both PPI and core PPI missed expectations. From Canada, new housing price index rose 0.4% mom in February. Manufacturing shipments dropped -0.2% mom. Release in European session, Swiss PPI rose 0.1% mom 1.3% yoy in March. German CPI was finalized at 0.2% mom, 1.6% yoy in March.

US Dollar tumbled broadly and is now trading as the weakest major currency after US President Donald Trump talked down the exchange rate. The Dollar index reaches as low as 100.01 so far. It's still holding on to 100 handle mainly thanks to the relative weakness of Euro, who's trading as the second weakest one. But this 100 psychological level looks vulnerable. Commodity currencies are broadly higher. Canadian Dollar maintains post BoC gains. Aussie is lifted by strong employment data. Yen pares back some gains but remains the strongest one for the weak on falling treasury yields. US 10 year yield closed at 2.296 and is now close to last week's low at 2.271. In other markets, Gold is staying firm at 1287 at the time of writing. But it's starting to feel a bit heavy ahead of 1300 handle, as risk aversion eases. WTI crude oil also retreats mildly and is back at around 53.

BOC appeared more confident over the economic growth outlook, although it maintained the policy rate unchanged at 0.5% in April. Policymakers upgraded the GDP growth forecast for this year amidst strong housing market activities in the first quarter, but revised lower the figure for 2018. It also revised mildly higher the inflation outlook, though. The central bank cautioned over the uncertainty of trade relations with the US and stressed that material slack remained in Canada. On the monetary policy, Governor Stephen Poloz described the stance as 'decidedly neutral' as the members weighed the improved economic developments against the uncertain trade policy. We expect the policy rate to stay unchanged at 0.5% for the rest of the year. The loonie strengthened around than +0.5% Wednesday as Canadian economic outlook improved. Yet, the magnitude of the gain was mainly due to USD's weakness as US President Donald Trump complained that the greenback is too strong and reiterated his preference of low interest rate policy.

Canadian Dollar surges sharply on upbeat Bank of Canada statement. BoC left overnight rate target unchanged at 0.50% as widely expected. The central bank noted in the accompany statement that "recent data indicate that economic growth has been faster than was expected in the January MPR". Growth for 2017 through 2019 is expected to "remain above potential". Real GDP growth is projected to 2.5% in 2017, revised up from January projection of 2.1%. Inflation, however, is expected to dip in the months ahead but return to 2% target as the "output gap closes". And BoC concluded by noting that it "acknowledges the strength of recent data, some of which is temporary, and is mindful of the significant uncertainties weighing on the outlook."

The latest inflation report continues to portray a subdued CPI, high PPI environment in China. Headline CPI improved to +0.9% y/y in March from +0.8% a month ago. The market has anticipated stronger pickup to +1%. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose +2% y/y, up from +1.8% in February. The decline in food prices deepened to -4.4% y/y from -4.3% in February. Nonfood inflation improved modestly to +2.3% y/y, up from +2.2% in February. PPI eased to +7.6% in March, from +7.8% in the prior month, compared with consensus of +7.5%. Both seasonal factors and moderation in the commodity price rally were key reasons for the slowdown. Lunar New Year in the first week of February pushed prices higher and absence of such factor was reflected in the March reading. Meanwhile, mining input prices gained +3.7% y/y in March, compared with a +36.1% y/y rally in the prior month. Oil and gas price, gaining +68.5% y/y in the month, was the biggest driver of PPI inflation last month. We expect PPI to stay high in coming months but growth would be more gradual due to strong base effect. Meanwhile, the rally in commodity prices over the past months is seen passing through to downstream CPI.

The financial markets are clearly in risk averse mode on escalating geopolitical tensions. Gold jumps to as high as 1281.8 so far, comparing to last week's close at 1257.3, and is heading towards 1300 handle. WTI crude oil also extends recent rally to as high as 53.6, still on course to 55.24 key resistance. Safe haven flows into US treasury also pushed yield lower with 10-year yield losing -0.063 to close at 2.298. And 10-year yield is now having last week's spike low at 2.271 in sight. Reactions in stock were relatively muted as DJIA dipped to 20512.56 but closed at 20651, down just -0.03%. Though, notable weakness is seen in Nikkei as it's trading down -1.2% at the time of writing.

Euro recovers today as lifted by German investor sentiment data. Meanwhile, Dollar softens broadly after uninspiring comments from Fed chair Janet Yellen. German ZEW economic sentiment rose to 19.5 in April, up from 12.8, beat expectation of 14.8. That's also the highest level since August 2015. Current situation assessment rose to 80.1, up from 77.3, beat expectation of 80.1. ZEW President Achim Wambach said that the "German economic situation has proved fairly robust in the first quarter" And, that was highlighted by "solid figures for growth in industrial production, the construction sector and retail sales from February." Also, "consistently high labour demand has boosted private consumption." Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment rose to 26.3, up from 25.6, beat expectation of 25.0. Also from Eurozone, industrial production dropped -0.3% mom in February versus expectation of 0.1% mom rise.