Action Insight

While there were quite a number of key events last week, Swiss Franc came up as the surprised biggest mover. The Franc tumbled broadly as safe haven funds flowed out in accelerated pace. Franc has indeed ended the week down over -3% against Sterling, Aussie, Canadian, Kiwi and Euro. Against Yen and Dollar, Franc closed down -2.8% and -2.4% respectively. Dollar ended as the second weakest one as FOMC statement was taken as a dovish one while GDP price data missed. Also, continuous political drama in the White House means that there is still no clear light on when US President Donald Trump's tax reform would be implemented. Commodity currencies closed generally higher as supported by surge in energy and metal prices. Nonetheless, another surprise was that Sterling ended as the strongest one as it recovered on position squaring ahead of BoE Super Thursday.

Dollar is set to end the week as the second weakest currency as slightly better than expected growth data provides little support. Q2 GDP grew 2.6% annualized, up from prior 1.4% and versus consensus of 2.5%. However, GDP price index slowed to 1.0%, down from 1.9% and below expectation of 1.3%. Employment cost index rose 0.5% in Q2, also below expectation of 0.6%. Subdued inflation will affirm the case for Fed to starting shrinking the balance in September first, and leave another rate hike to December. This will give Fed more time to assess inflation and growth outlook before raising interest rates. Also from US session, Canada GDP rose 0.6% mom in May, much stronger than expectation of 0.2% mom.

Selloff in Swiss Franc continued overnight and weakness extends into Asian session. EUR/CHF is trading up over 300 pts, or 2.75% for the week. As we noted before, the strong break of 1.12 handle is now setting up the stage for EUR/CHF to head back to prior SNB floor at 1.2. USD/CHF's break of 0.9699 resistance also argues that the down trend from 1.0342 has completed and reversed after defending 0.9443 key support level. Oversold condition could start to limit selling in the Swiss Franc and we might see Franc crosses slow down a little bit before ending the week. Focus will be turned back to US with Q2 GDP data featured.

The spotlight moves back to the Swiss Franc today as EUR/CHF surges past 1.12 key resistance level. The cross is now setting up the momentum to regain 1.2 handle in medium term, which is the prior SNB imposed floor. Back in January 2015, SNB shocked the market by removing the floor and EUR/CHF dived to as low as 0.86, depending that what chart you read. With all the improvements in Eurozone, fundamentally, politically and system-wise, it now looks like there is no longer the need of safe haven parking in the Franc, with negative interest rates. The surge in commodity and energy prices would also help lift Eurozone inflation which keep ECB on course for stimulus exits.

Dollar's broad based selloff resumed overnight after Fed kept monetary policies unchanged. The move was seen as reaction to Fed's slight tweak in description of inflation. Also, Fed's indication that balance sheet normalization would start very soon suggest that it will push another rate hike, if any to December. While the greenback is weak, it's still slightly better than the Swiss Franc. The Franc dived yesterday in catch up to recent developments in the financial markets and there is no sign of halting yet. Commodity currencies are the best performer this week as markets are on full risk-on mode.

The July FOMC meeting came in as widely anticipated. The Fed left its monetary policy unchanged, maintaining the federal funds rate target at 1-1.25%. The Fed made two tweak in the statement, though. First, it noted that balance sheet reduction would begin 'relatively soon', signaling that the official announcement would come in September. Second, policymakers revised lower the outlook on core inflation. US dollar plunged, with the weighted index falling to a 13-month low as the market interpreted the inflation assessment as dovish.

Dollar bulls are clearly unhappy with the FOMC statement today. Fed kept target range for the federal funds rate at 1 to 1.25% as widely expected. The new FOMC statement was almost a carbon copy of the May's one. The exceptions are firstly, Fed indicated that it will start the "balance sheet normalization program relatively soon". Secondly, Fed took the part that "job gains have moderated" and just described that "job gains have been solid". It's clear that markets are taking the message that Fed is going to announce the plan to shrink the balance sheet in September. And Fed will hold it cards for another rate hike till December to see how the economy evolves.

Swiss Franc is stealing the show today as it tumbles broadly and sharply across the board. EUR/CHF is trading up 0.6% at the time of writing and is set to take on key resistance level around 1.12. The selloff in the Franc is believed to be a catch up to a combination of recent developments in the financial markets. Those include surge in risk markets including European stocks, oil and commodities. Market expectations are also firm that ECB is on course to exit stimulus down the road, or least, taper its asset purchase. Such expectation is reinforced by the rally in stocks, energy and commodities that would help lift inflation.

Aussie dropped after the weaker than expected inflation report, as traders took profit after the currency rallied to 2-year against USD and last week. Headline CPI moderated to +1.9% y/y in 2Q17 from +2.1% a quarter ago. The market had anticipated an increase to +2.2%. Key contributors to the weakness were lower automotive fuel prices as global oil prices plunged and the usual seasonal drop in domestic holiday, travel and accommodation prices. RBA's trimmed mean slipped 0.1 percentage point to +1.8%, in line with expectation, while the weighted median CPI climbed +0.1 percentage point to +1.8% in the second quarter. Consumer price levels are an important gauge of central banks' monetary outlook. The dilemma currently facing major central banks worldwide is the continuing economic growth and employment market improvement, alongside subdued inflation. At the July meeting minutes, RBA acknowledged that weak inflation is a global phenomenon with core inflation remaining low while headline inflation turning down..

US stocks ignored policy uncertainty surrounding President Donal Trump and surged to record highs overnight. S&P 500 jumped to record high at 2477.13, up 0.29%, on strong earnings. NASDAQ also rose 0.02% to record at 6412.17. DOW jumped 0.47% to close at 21613.43, just shy of record. Surging oil price, which saw WTI reaching as high as 48.66, is another factor boosting sentiments. Meanwhile, US yields also staged a strong comeback just ahead of FOMC rate decision. 10 year yield closed up 0.072 to 2.326, scoring the largest jump in nearly 4 months. In the currency markets, Canadian Dollar is trading as the strongest major currency for the week while Yen and Swiss Franc are the weakest. Dollar and Sterling are mixed as markets await FOMC meeting and UK Q2 GDP.

Dollar's selloff resumes after Fed is starting its two day policy meeting today. In particular, EUR/USD extends recent rally and is pressing 1.17 as helped by record sentiment data. The greenback, on the other hand, stays weak on uncertainty over Fed's outlook. Politics in the US is also weighing on the greenback. There are news about US President Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner's contacts with Russia. There are also news of Trump blasting attorney general Jeff Sessions. And there are news that Trump's boy scout Jamboree speech angered parents. But, there seems to be no news regarding tax reforms and expansive fiscal policies.

The forex markets are treading water in a rather dull start to the week, staying mostly in ranges. Other financial markets are mixed too. NASDAQ hit record high overnight and closed up 0.36% at 6410.81. But DOW and S&P 500 closed down by -0.31% at 21513.17 and -0.11% at 2469.91 respectively. Treasury yield staged a mild recovery with 10 year yield closed up 0.022 at 2.254. Asian markets are trading in tight range with mild loss in Nikkei as it struggles to regain 20,000 handle. In other markets, Gold is losing some upside momentum ahead of 1260 but is staying near term bullish. WTI crude oil is back above 46.6 on recovery and helped keeping USD/CAD below 1.25 handle.

Global financial markets trade in mild risk averse mode today. European indices are dragged down by auto makers and oil producer stocks. Weaker than expected Eurozone PMIs also weigh. US futures also point to lower open. The forex markets are rather mixed with Aussie trading generally higher but Kiwi is the weakest one. Dollar and Euro are soft against most major currencies. Trader, nonetheless, are subdued as markets are eyeing the key events later in the week, including FOMC rate decision and GDP from US and UK.

Dollar and Sterling are trading mixed as another week starts, but both remain the two weakest currency for the month. The greenback will try hard to draw something from FOMC statement to halt its decline, but that's unlikely. Meanwhile, US and UK GDP for Q2 will also catch much attention. Latest economic projections from IMF showed that the world is going to rely less on US and UK for growth this year. And that is, generally speaking, in line with the current market sentiment. In other markets, Gold is staying firm above 1250 handle while WTI crude oil is hovering between 45.5/46.0.

Another week of much volatility in the forex markets. Euro surged to two year high against Dollar as markets took ECB's message as a nod to stimulus withdrawal down the road. The common currency ended as the second strongest one, just next to it's cousin Swiss Franc. On the other hand, Sterling fell broadly as rate hike speculations were dented by much lower than expected CPI reading. Dollar followed closely as markets were getting more dissatisfied with US President Donald's lack of progress in tax reforms. Much volatility was also seen in Australian Dollar on RBA rhetorics. Canadian Dollar also gained against the greenback but is seen as losing momentum.

Canadian Dollar stays firm against dollar in early US session even though it's mixed against other currencies. USD/CAD, trading at 1.2550, has been losing some downside momentum this week, but is still on course to test 2016 low at 1.2460. Headline Canadian CPI dropped -0.1% mom in June. The annual rate slowed to 1.0% yoy, down from 1.3% yoy and missed expectation of 1.1% yoy. That's also the lowest level since October 2015. Nonetheless, two of the three core inflation measures of BoC picked up in the same month. CPI core common rose to 1.4% yoy, up from 1.3% yoy. CPI core median rose to 1.6% yoy, up from 1.5% yoy CPI core trim was unchanged at 1.2% yoy. Meanwhile, Canadian retail sales rose solidly by 0.6% mom in May, beating expectation of 0.4% mom. Ex-auto sales dropped -0.1% mom, missing expectation of 0.4% mom.

Euro surged broadly overnight as markets took ECB President Mario Draghi's comments positively. EUR/USD is now in an important medium term resistance zone of 1.1615/1713 and is maintaining solid upside momentum. The coming weeks will be important for the common currency. Sustained break of the current resistance zone would build up the base for a take on 1.2 handle by the end of the year. Against others, EUR/GBP also took out 0.8948 resistance and is now resuming the rise from 0.8312 towards 0.9304 key resistance. EUR/AUD also showed strong rebound which could have marked the completion of whole correction pattern from 1.5226 at 1.4421.

ECB left interest rates and the QE program unchanged in July. The members also decided to keep the QE reference in the forward guidance. The central bank indicated it would continue buying assets in the market for some time and President Mario Draghi admitted that "inflation is not where we want it to be, nor where it should be" and "that's why a substantial degree of accommodative monetary policy is still needed". The single currency plunged after the dovish statement. However, it reversed to gains and jumped to a fresh 14-month high against USD after Draghi indicated that QE discussion would begin in autumn.

Euro trades mildly highly on cautious but optimistic comments from ECB President Mario Draghi after the central left monetary policy unchanged. But it's staying in range against Dollar, Yen and even the weak Sterling. EUR/USD dipped to 1.1478 earlier today but is now back at 1.1550. Though, it's held below temporary top at 1.1582. EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP are trading in recent range below 130.76 and 0.8948 respectively. Sterling remains the weakest major currency for the week as weighed down by weaker than expected inflation data even though retail sales surprised on the upside today. Dollar regains some ground today but follows Pound as the second weakest major currency.

As expected, BOJ left its monetary stance unchanged in July. The central bank voted 7-2 to keep its target for 10-year JGBs at around 0% and its short-term deposit rate at -0.1% as expected. It also maintained the measure to buy government bonds at an annual rate of 80 trillion yen. What is more dovish is that the central bank now forecasts it would take longer than previously anticipated for the economy to achieve the +2% inflation target. It is the 6th time that the central bank pushed back the projected timing for achieving the inflation target. USDJPY has rebounded +0.23% since the announcement.