Action Insight

As widely anticipated, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%, historic low since August 2016. Policymakers remained confident over the economic outlook, but stayed cautious over the strength in property prices. Again, they warned that recent appreciation in Australian dollar would weigh on the outlook for growth and employment, and prolong soft inflation. . It appeared that the central bank would keep its policy rate unchanged at the current level for some time.

The Japan yen remains firm across the board on mild risk aversion. It's reported that North Korea is quietly moving another intercontinental ballistic missile towards its west coast, readying for another launch by the end of the week. But market reaction is relatively muted. There is no follow through buying seen in neither Yen or Swiss Franc. With the exception of USD/CAD, most pairs are still bounded in familiar range as consolidations continue. Aussie strengthens mildly after RBA stands pat, but similar to most others, AUD/USD is stuck in range trading for the moment. In other markets, Nikkei trades in red again today and is down -0.5% at the time of writing. Gold stays firm at around 1340/5 and could take on 1350 handle later in the week. WTI crude oil is mildly higher but struggles to get rid of 55 day EMA at 47.5.

The news is huge but the reactions in the markets are relatively mild. Quick escalation in North Korea tension over the weekend triggered selloff in global equity markets. Nikkei suffered much by dropping -0.93% to 19508.25, closing close to intraday low at 19479.40. While European stocks follow, FTSE is back at 7410 after dipping to 7404, down -0.37% at the time of writing. DAX dropped to 10050 but it's back at 12118, down only -0.20%. CAC, similarly, dips to 5088.28 but is back at 5109, down -0.28%. In the currency markets, no follow through buying is seen in Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc after initial gap up. The more decisive movement is found in gold, which jumps to as high as 1345.5 and is trading above 1340, up fro than 0.75%.

Korean peninsula tensions have escalated further as North Korea confirmed the sixth nuclear test on Sunday, following a missile launch over Japan on August 29. In response to the growing threat of its closest neighbor (and ethnic brother), South Korea has earlier today conducted a missile drill and pledged to implement contingency measures to stabilize the economy in case of drastic deterioration. In the US, Defense Secretary James Mattis warned of "massive military response" to North Korea's intimidation, echoing President Donald Trump's comment 'all options are on the table' following the rogue regime missile launch last week. While US' warnings imply that a military strike against North Korea cannot be ruled out, we believe the chance is low as it is the least preferred option for all major stakeholders.

Yen and Swiss Franc gap up as the week starts while Dollar and Aussie trade broadly lower. Nikkei tumbles in early trading and is down -170 pts at the time of writing. Gold resumes recent rally and surges to as high as 1343.5. Korea tension resurfaces as North Korea conducted a sixth nuclear test on Sunday. It's believed that this one, an advanced hydrogen bomb or a long-range missile, is of a significantly larger scale and more powerful, as an Pyongyang described the underground explosion in a televised statement that it's a "perfect success in the test of a hydrogen bomb for an ICBM". And, "the creditability of the operation of the nuclear warhead is fully guaranteed." It's even claimed that the detonation of the bomb triggered an initial magnitude 6.3 earthquake in the northern part of North Korea. The United Nations Security Council was set to meet later on today to discuss fresh sanctions against the country.

Dollar survived the geopolitical risks in Korea peninsula, damage of hurricane Harvey, and a set of disappointing non-farm payroll data, to end the week "mixed". While the pull back in EUR/USD caught much attention, we'd like the point out that Dollar ended the week lower against Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar and Sterling. Indeed, the pound ended as the third strongest major currency, next to Canadian Dollar, even though the third round of Brexit negotiations ended with no concrete progress but more verbal exchanges between EU and UK officials. On the other hand, as risk aversion came and went quickly, Yen and Swiss Franc ended as the weakest ones, just next to Kiwi. Traders could take a brief rest on Monday as US and Canada will be on holiday. But three central bank meetings, RBA, BoC and ECB promise much volatility ahead.

Dollar is back under selling pressure in early US session after all the way bad non-farm payroll report. NFP showed only 156k growth in August, below expectation of 180k. Prior month's figure was revised down from 209k to 189k. Unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, up from 4.3%. And more disappointingly, average hourly earnings grew a mere 0.1% mom, below expectation of 0.2% mom and slowed from prior month's 0.3% mom. EUR/USD took out 1.1928 minor resistance and should have completed this week's pull back. Further rise is now in favor through 1.2 handle back to retest 1.2069 high. USD/CAD dives through 1.2412 low and is now resuming medium term down trend. US will also release ISM manufacturing later today but it's unlikely to help the greenback.

Dollar lost some momentum after yesterday's sharp rebound, as markets are waiting employment data from US. Non-farm payroll report is expected to show 180k growth in August while unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 4.3%. Wage growth is also a key to watch and average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.2% mom. It's clearly that Fed will announce the plan to unwind its balance sheet later this month. The main question for all market participants is whether Fed will hike again this year. Fed fund futures are only pricing in 36.9% chance of another hike in December. Stronger than expected NFP numbers might lift the pricing a little. But Fed policy makers would still need to see evidence that inflation is back on track before making another move.

Despite a retreat after breaching the 1.2 level against US dollar, the euro has still gained almost +2% since the last ECB meeting. Indeed, the single currency is the best performer so far this year, up13% against the greenback and +8% against the pound, whilst the trade-weighted index has appreciated over 7% since 2Q17. A non-eventful Jackson Hole failed to dampened euro's rally. Rather, it led EURUSD to surge to as high as 1.2069, a level not seen since early 2015.

Sharp pull back in Euro and strong rebound in the Dollar are the main themes in the forex markets today. The common currency is weighed down by reports that "unnamed" ECB officials are concerned with its strength. And ECB might opt to "muddle" through the September meeting instead of announcing some solid tapering plan. That's more that offset the supposed positive boost from stronger than expected Eurozone CPI. On the other hand, Dollar continues to regain grounds as supported by positive economic data. Nonetheless, Canadian Dollar is indeed the strongest one today as lifted by stronger than expected GDP growth. New Zealand Dollar stays the weakest but Sterling catching up as another round of Brexit negotiation is concluded without any progress.

Dollar is trading firm is Asian session today and maintains overnight gains inspired by positive ADP and GDP data. That was accompanied mild strength in stocks, with DOW closed up 0.12%. 10 year yield also edged higher by gaining 0.007 to 2.143. Dollar index dived to as low as 91.62 yesterday but seems to be getting strong support fro 91.91/3 key level and rebounded. The key will lie in tomorrow's non-farm payroll report. As risk aversion eased, Yen is trading in red against all other major currencies for the week, except Canadian Dollar. Gold also pares back much of this week's gain and is back pressing 1300, after hitting as high as 1331.9 earlier in the week. The Loonie is weighed down by weakness in oil price which sees WTI dips to as low as 45.58.

Recent weakness in Swiss franc against the euro has not yet boosted Switzerland's economic outlook in a meaningful way, evidenced by the disappointing KOF indicator and Credit Suisse (formerly conducted by ZEW) investor sentiment index for August. While, at the meeting on September 14, the SNB would certainly affirm the stance that the franc remains "overvalued" and the pledge the combat deflation, we are concerned that there would still be a long way to go for the country's economy to get back in shape, as the pass-through of exchange rate into inflation is subdued. Meanwhile, a recent study by the SNB suggests that its monetary policy would have to stay relatively more accommodative (than ECB's) for longer to push inflation higher. We believe this reinstates the central bank's commitment to leave the policy unchanged.

Dollar's rebound gathers additional steam in early US session after better than expected job data. AFP report showed 237k growth in private sector employment in August, beating expectation of 188k. Q2 GDP growth was also revised up to 3.0% annualized, up from 2.6% and beat expectation of 2.7%. Besides, US President Trump will finally kick-off his campaign on tax reform today. Trump will deliver a speech in Springfield, Missouri, and will likely tout the tax reform as a way to help the working class as well as the middle class. If the speech is consistent with Trump's usual rhetorics, it will likely focus on the "why" aspects of the reform. However, the markets would be more interested in know the "how" aspects of it. Nonetheless, for now, Dollar selling is likely past a climax and more upside is mildly in favor, at least until non-farm payroll release on Friday.

Risk appetite returned as DOW staged the a 200 points swing in the biggest intraday comeback in near nine months overnight. Major indices ended higher with DOW gained 0.26%, S&P 500 rose 0.08% and NASDAQ added 0.30%. 10 year yield dived to as low as 2.091 but pared back much losses to close down -0.023 at 2.136. Dollar also stabilized and recovered after intraday selloff. Some analysts attributed the rebound to the lack of escalation out of US regarding North Korea's firing of missile over Japan. US President just said that all options are on the table, without any follow up. Nikkei follows by gaining near to 100 pts in Asia at the time of writing. Gold also retreated from intraday high at 1331.9 and is back below 1320.

The two key phenomena, tightening in liquidity condition and renminbi strength, in the Chinese market have persisted. Last week, PBOC auctioned RMB 80B of 3-month Treasury deposits at 4.51%, the highest since December 2014. This came in after another auction of 3-month Treasury deposits on August 18, at 4.46%. Higher interest rates signaled that the government is trying to increase the borrowing cost, tightening money supply.

Risk aversion dominates the global financial markets as geopolitical tension in Korea Peninsula escalates to a tipping point. North Korea fired a missile over Japan to land in the Pacific Ocean. Japan condemned the act as "an unprecedented, serious and significant threat. US warned that "all options are on the table". Nikkei responded by closing down -0.45% at 19362.55. Major European indices are trading deep in red with FTSE down -1.1%, DAX down -1.7% and CAC down -1.3%. US futures also point to sharply lower open. Gold rides on the sentiment and extends this week's rally, accelerating to as high as 1331.9 so far. In the currency markets, Dollar trades as the weakest ones, followed by commodity currencies and Sterling. Swiss Franc is leading the way up, followed by Yen.

Yen surges broadly, together with Swiss Franc, on risk aversion as tension in the Koreas escalates again. North Korea fired a missile earlier today that flew over Japan and landed in the Pacific Ocean. South Korea military official said that the missile was fired around 5:57 a.m. local time, flew for about 2700 km and reached a maximum altitude of 550 km. US Pacific Command projected that the missile splashed down at around 6:29 a.m. local time. The news sent Yen higher as investors there repatriates their overseas investments on fear of market and exchange rate volatility. USD/JPY dives through 108.59 support to as low as 108.33 and recent selloff resumes. Commodity currencies are hit hardest while Euro is mixed. The news also sent gold sharply higher to 1330 after it takes out of 1300 handle firmly yesterday.

US President Donald Trump's renewed threat to withdraw from the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) reminds us that renegotiation of this 23-year-old deal has begun. While the US has accused Canada of both lumber and dairy trades, its focus is more on Mexico with Trump keeping demanding its third trading partner to pay the bill for construction of the wall along the border. In our opinion, the core of NAFTA renegotiation is to narrow US' trade deficit. With US' trade deficit with Canada on the fall, it would put harder pressure on Mexico in the negotiations.

Sterling recovers broadly today as markets are looking at the third round of Brexit negotiation between UK and EU in Brussels.. There are talks that selloff of the Pound is overdone, in particular against Euro. Technically that's a valid view as the cross, currently at 0.9240, is reasonably close enough to key resistance level at 0.9304 (2016 high). But the recovery in the Pound is so far rather weak and it's staying near term bearish against Euro, Dollar and Yen. There are still a lot of uncertainties over the outcome of Brexit and we believed that the worst is not priced in yet. There might be renewed selling in Sterling should there be no positive news coming our from the Brexit negotiators.

The forex markets are pretty steady in range as another week starts, as usual. Euro surged to highest in more than two years against Dollar last week as aftermath of Jackson Hole symposium. The common currency retreats mildly today but remains firm across the board. Focus will turn back to economic data this week first, in particular job data from US. So far, EUR/USD is in health up trend to take on 1.2 handle next. Attention will be on UK and EU and another round of Brexit negotiation starts. In response to the criticism on lack of clear positions, Prime Minister Theresa May's government released seven policy papers ahead of the meeting. And officials on both sides would have to expedite their work in order to make enough progress to start the talks on post Brexit trade agreements in October. EUR/GBP is facing 0.9304 key resistance for the moment. Negative news out of the negotiation could power the cross through this level.