Euro Turns Slightly Softer as ECB Lowers 2019 Growth and Inflation Forecasts, Increasingly Cautious
It's a relatively calm day today despite all the high profile events. At the time of writing, Euro is trading as the weakest one after ECB delivered a dovish shift as expected. In short, 2019 growth and inflation forecasts are lowered, and Draghi said balance of risks are moving...
UK PM May Survived Leadership Challenge, Focus Turns to SNB and ECB
Risk sentiments are rather firm in Asian markets as major indices opened up and are extending gains. UK Prime Minister Theresa May's survival of the leadership challenge is a positive factor. Also, progress and US-China trade talk is another factor. It's reported that China has already purchased more than...
Sterling Soars as Traders Believe UK PM May Will Survive Leadership Challenge
The UK is in the center of focus again today. Now the time has come for a leadership challenge on UK Prime Minister Theresa May. Sterling gains a lot of round as it looks like May could survive this big test for her Brexit deal. The Pound is so...
US-China Trade Talks Supports Sentiment, But Risks Like Brexit Remain
New Zealand and Australian Dollar are trading as the strongest ones today so far, following rebound in Asian stocks. Nevertheless, both currencies are generally limited below last week's highs, indicating unconvincing upside momentum for now. Indeed, sentiments did turn more positive on US-China trade talks. But there are enough...
Risk Appetite Come Back as China Mulls Auto Tariff Cuts, Trump Hints on Important Announcements
Risk appetite has a strong come back today on progress in US-China trade negotiations. It's reported that China is considering to response to Trump's request and cut auto tariffs down from 40% to 15%. Trump also tweeted that there were productive conversations with China and urged people to watch...
Sterling Stays Pressured on Brexit Uncertainty, Asian Markets Calm after Wild Ride in US
Sterling tries to recover some ground in Asia, after yesterday's heavy selloff. But there is no sign of a turn a round in the Pound. The Brexit parliamentary vote is now called off and UK Prime Minister Theresa May is going back to the EU to seek changes on...
Pound Tumbles as UK PM May Will Call off Brexit Parliamentary Vote, Abruptly
Pound is at the center of focus today as it finally shows some commitment on the downside. The trigger of the selloff is report that UK Prime Minister Theresa May is going to call off tomorrow's Brexit parliamentary vote. Weak economic data of course also add to the pressure...
Sterling Might Wake Up as Brexti Vote Approaches, Busy Week Ahead
Asian stocks open the week lower, following Friday's selloff in the US. But the forex markets are pretty steady. Dollar is the weakest one for now, followed by Sterling and then Canadian. On the other hand, New Zealand Dollar leads the way higher, followed by Euro and then Japanese...
Yield Curve Inversion and Global Slowdown Hammered Stocks, Not US-China Trade Talks
It was another volatile week with multiple theme working on the markets. US-China trade truce, arrest of Chinese business executive, stock market routs, treasury yield free fall, US yield curve inversion, weak economic data and global slow down, OPEC+ production cut, UK Brexit parliament debate, Italy budget. All have...
Canadian Dollar Strikes Back on Stellar Job Data, Dollar Shrugs NFP Miss
Dollar spikes lower in early US session after non-farm payroll report showed lower than expected job and wage growth. That adds to argument that the momentum US job growth has peaked. Nevertheless, there is no follow through selling in the greenback seen. The only exception is USD/CAD with Canadian...
Sentiments Stabilized with DOW’s Late Rebound, Dollar Turns to Non-Farm Payrolls
Risk sentiments generally stabilized after the late rebound in US stocks overnight. DOW hit as low as 24242.22 but closed at 24947.67. Down just -0.32%. S&P 500 also hit as low as 2621.53 but closed at 2695.95, down only -0.15%. NASDAQ even reversed and closed up 0.42% at 7188.26....
Dollar Slightly Lower on Job Data Miss, But Risk Aversion Still the Main Theme.
Dollar softens mildly against European majors in early US session after weaker than expected job data. But risk aversion remains the overall theme of the market. Australian Dollar stays the weakest one, followed by Canadian and New Zealand Dollar. WTI crude oil is back at 51.2 as even though...
Australian Dollar Dives Again as Risk Aversion Intensifies on Chinese Tech Giant Huawei
Risk aversion intensifies in Asian session again. In particular, Hong Kong stocks lead the decline on news of arrest of Chinese tech giant Huawei's CFO Meng Wanzhou. The arrest is reported to be in relation to Huawei violating US sanctions by shipping US originated products to Iran and some...
Sterling Rebounds on Brexit Rethinks and Technical Support
Sterling stages a broad based rebound today despite poor PMI services data. The Pound is partly helped by technical support from GBP/USD (at 1.2661) and EUR/GBP (at 0.8939). Additionally, traders are probably reassessing Brexit scenarios. A tricky point is on what would Common's rejection of Prime Minister Theresa May's...
ECB Preview – Focus on Reinvestment Plan, New Round of TLTRO
The market is closely watching ECB’s policy after QE. At the upcoming meeting next week, ECB would announce its plan to reinvest the maturing bonds. Meanwhile, market speculations are rising that the central bank would soon announce a new round of its targeted long-term refinancing operations (TLTRO). Given recent...
Dollar Regains Ground as Investors Rush from Stocks to Bonds, Aussie Additionally Pressured by GDP Miss
The US stock markets closed sharply lower overnight while treasury yields also dived. Such patterns continue in Asia, seeing major indices pressured while JGB year yields also drop. There are clear flows out of stocks into bonds. Fed has already turned less hawkish with Chair Jerome Powell's turn last...
Dollar Broadly Lower as 10 Year Yield Breaks Below 3%
Dollar is under broad based selling pressure on falling treasury yields, globally. In particular, 10 year yield drops below 3% level for the first time since September. Canadian Dollar and Swiss Franc are following as the next weakest. On the other hand, return to risk aversion and falling global...
BOC Preview: Will Poloz Maintain Hawkish Stance?
Bank of Canada is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.75%, after a rate hike of +25 bps in October. Despite bets of another move this month, we believe policymakers would take a wait- and- see mode to assess the impact of the sharp fall of oil...
Yen Surges as Nikkei Tumbles and JGB Yield Falls
Yen jumps broadly today as Asian stocks weaken, moving past the positive catalyst of US-China trade truce quickly. Nikkei closed down -2.39%, more than enough to reverse Monday's 1.00% gain. Additionally, 10 year JGB yield is down is down -0.010 at 0.073, comparing to October's high at 0.162. There...
RBA More Concerned about Housing Markets, Disinflation Likely Keeps Policy Rate Unchanged for 2019
As widely expected, RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% for the 26th consecutive meeting. The accompanying statement contained little new information. Yet, it revealed that the members were dovish about the housing market. Meanwhile, disinflation in Australian economy should likely lead the central bank to keep its...