Traders Turned Bearish on Both Oil and Gold
CFTC Commitments of Traders
Speculators turned bearish over the energy complex in the week ended April 3. Net LENGTH for crude oil futures plunged -16 225 contracts from a week ago to 699 545. NET LENGTH of heating oil slipped -586 contracts to 14 401 while net LENGTH for gasoline...
Dollar Mixed as Markets Pared Back Expectations of Fed Hikes Slightly, after NFP and on Trade War
US-China trade war was the dominant theme in the financial markets last week. US started by announcing the list of 1300 product lines to be tariffed under Section 301 actions. China quickly responded by announcing 25% retaliation tariffs to US imports, matching the size of USD 50b product values....
Dollar Supported by Wage Growth Despite NFP Miss, No Drama from China’s Brief Press Briefing
Reactions in the financial markets to the escalation in US-China trade tensions remain rather mild. Nikkei closed down just -0.36% today. European indices are in red at the time of writing. But DAX is down -0.5%, CAC down -0.3% and FTSE is nearly flat. US futures point to triple...
As Trump Seeks Attentions With Trade Tensions Escalation, Markets are Looking Forward to Non-Farm Payrolls Instead
Trade war comes back to headline as US President Donald Trump announced his intention to triple down on the tariffs on Chinese imports. But so far, market reactions are muted. Major forex pairs are trapped in yesterday's range, just with some notable weakness in New Zealand Dollar. Swiss Franc...
Widening US Trade Deficit and Higher Jobless Claims Not Deterring Dollar Rebound
Global stock markets rebounded impressively today as traders looked past the first chapter of US-China trade war. Nikkei closed up 1.53% at 21645.42 earlier today. European indices are all trading up at the time of writing, with DAX gaining 2.44% being most impressive. CAC is up 2.07% while FTSE...
US Crude Oil and Gasoline Inventories Declined, While Distillate Stockpile Rose Last Week
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products stocks fell -3.94 mmb to 1185.58 mmb in the week ended March 30. Crude oil inventory declined -4.62 mmb to 425.33 mmb, amidst decreases in 4 out of 5 PADDs. Stockpile in...
China Announced Tariff on US Soybean Exports. What Next?
US-China trade friction aggravated as China on April 4 announced the second round of retaliation, immediately after US revelation of a list of about US$ 50B worth of made-in-China products that are subject to 25% tariffs. The first round of the retaliatory tariff, involving US$ 3B worth of US...
Stocks Staged Massive Rebound as Trade War Development Takes a Rest For Now
While the initial selloff in US stocks were steep, they quickly recovered and didn't look back. DOW made a massive 700 pts come back from session low at 2523.16 to close at 24264.30, up 230.94 pts or 0.96%. Nikkei followed and staged a strong 1.5% rebound. For now, the...
Markets Rocked by China’s Speedy and Intense Response to US Tariffs
US-China trade war is the dominant theme in the markets today. Initial reactions were muted to US announcement of the product list in Section 301 tariffs on China. However, global stock markets were rocked by China's immediate response of its own retaliation measures against the US. The speed of...
Dollar Lower as Battle 1, US-China Trade War Starts, But Other Markets Shrug Off
The US finally announced the list Chinese products to be tariffed in its Section 301 actions. China responded with strongly worded statement. But so far, market reactions are muted. After limited volatility, both Japan Nikkei and Hong Kong HSI are trading nearly flat at the time of writing. The...
Crude Oil Prices Supported by Inventory Draw and Russia’s Pledge to Fully Comply with Output Cut
Crude oil prices climbed higher for the second consecutive day as a report showing unexpected expected decline in US inventory. Meanwhile, Russia pledged that it would fully comply with the output cut deal this month. However, caution is advised over the promise as Russian oil output has reached the...
Euro Selling Gathers Momentum against Dollar and Canadian, EUR/USD Breaks 1.2285 Finally
EUR/USD finally breaks 1.2285 support with some momentum in early US session. That could be seen as a sign that the forex traders are finally back from holiday, and starting to commit on a position. Events earlier today were important, but non-market moving. PMI data from UK and Eurozone...
China’s First Renminbi Crude Oil Futures Unlikely Accelerates Currency Internationalization
On March 26, China launched its, and also the world’s, first renminbi-denominated crude oil futures. The debut appeared successful with 20M barrels of oil changed hands on average in each of the first two trading days. This represents 3% of combined WTI and Brent volumes on these days. The...
RBA Aware of Recent Rise in Yields
The April RBA meeting contained little surprise. Policymakers left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% and made few changes in the policy statement. The central bank remained upbeat on growth and employment. Yet, it remained wary of the slow growth in wage. Meanwhile, the members took note of the...
Yen Pared Gains as Asian Markets Stabilized, Australian Dollar Steady after RBA
US equities suffered steep selling overnight with DOW losing -1.9%, S&P 500 losing -2.23%. NASDAQ was worst hit as tech rout continued and closed down -2.74%. While Asian equities opened lower and stay in red, selloff is relatively much milder. Nikkei hit as low as 21056.02 but at the...
Dollar Attempts to Extend Rebound on ISM Price Paid, But Failing So Far
Some volatility is finally see in early US session even though there is still a lack of follow through momentum. US equities open lower with DOW losing over 150 pts, back below 24000 handle at the time of writing. Dollar accompanies the fall in DOW with a rally attempt....
Traders Were Bullish on Petroleum but Turned Bearish on Natural Gas
CFTC Commitments of Traders
With the exception of natural gas, speculators were bullish over the energy complex in the week ended March 27. Net LENGTH for crude oil futures jumped +12 062 contracts from a week ago to 715 7708. NET LENGTH of heating oil gained +1 948 contracts to...
Hong Kong Dollar Weakest in Three Decades Due to Ample Liquidity
USDHKD has continued flirting slightly below 7.85, the weak end of its trading band. Since late-February, the market has been speculating about what and when the Hong Kong Monetary authority HKMA, the de facto central bank of Hong Kong, would do to maintain the peg. We judge that the...
Forex Markets Stay Quiet on Holiday Mood. RBA, ISM and NFP ahead
The forex markets are rather quiet today as most countries are still on holiday. Yen is trading generally lower but loss is limited so far. Japan Tankan survey posted some disappointing data but was shrugged off. Australian Dollar is also a touch weaker. Mixed data from China and the...
Markets Tread Water as Traders’ Minds are Already on Holiday
The forex market are starting to ignore economic data release today and tread water, just ahead of long weekend. Dollar is trading in black across the board for the week. But better than expectation job data doesn't the greenback a boost to extend its rally. Canadian Dollar also shrugs...