China Trade Surplus with US Highest This Year; No Deal from Trade Talk but Not Yet Hopeless
China recorded a trade surplus of US$ 28.8B in April, beating consensus of US$ 27.5B. In March, China reported a deficit of US$ 5B due to seasonal factor. Compared with the same period last year, trade surplus narrowed by -23.1%. The +12.9% y/y increase in exports was overshadowed by...
Dollar and Yen Staying Near Term Bullish Against Euro, With Weaker Momentum
The forex markets are basically staying in recent trends, but with weaker momentum. Dollar extended the rally against Euro and Swiss Franc, but it's kept in tight range against Sterling, Aussie and Loonie for the momentum. Yen, is broadly higher today, with EUR/JPY dipping through last week's low. But...
Dollar Extending Rally against Euro and Swiss Franc as Weak Eurozone Data Weigh
Dollar is extending recent rally against Euro and Swiss Franc in early US session. EUR/USD breached 1.19 handle as it's now trying to get rid of 1.2 firmly. USD/CHF reaches as high as 1.0055 and breached 1.0037 resistance. Weak Eurozone data is a factor weighing on the comment currency,...
Dollar Mildly Firmer in Quiet Markets, USD/JPY Pressing Channel Support
The forex markets open the week rather quietly today. Dollar is trading mildly firmer in tight range against other major currencies. Aussie is so far the weakest one today, getting no support from positive business condition and confidence data. Markets could remain quiet today with UK on holiday. The...
BoE Could be More Dovish than “Hawkish Hold”
BOE is almost certain to keep the Bank rate unchanged at 0.5% in the May meeting. Weakness in PMI data released last week aggravated concerns that recent the moderation in economic activities might persist. Doubts have arisen that whether the slowdown in 1Q18 is only driven by transitory factors...
Traders were Bearish on Precious Metals While Stayed Mixed on Energy
Speculators were mixed over the energy complex in the week ended May 1. Net LENGTH for crude oil futures plunged -21 696 contracts from a week ago to 690 727. NET LENGTH of heating oil rose +4 341 contracts to 26 997 while net LENGTH for gasoline dropped -1 940 contracts...
Yen Beat Dollar as the Strongest in Yields Driven Forex Markets
Dollar ended last week broadly higher except versus the Japanese Yen. While economic data from the US were generally disappointing, they were not bad enough to alter Fed's path of three rate hikes this year. Just that, the data didn't add to the chance of the fourth hike in...
It’s Still the Yen’s Show after US Non-Farm Payrolls and Wage Growth Missed Expectations
Dollar fails to regain spot light after worse than expected job data. Non-farm payroll showed 164k growth in April only, below expectation of 194k. Prior month's figure, though, was revised up from 103k to 135k. Unemployment rate dropped to 3.9%, down from 4.1% and beat expectation of 4.0%. That's...
Dollar to Take Back the Stage from Yen and Aussie as Non-Farm Payrolls Loom
Initial selloff in the US stock markets overnight shot up Japanese Yen. DOW initially dipped to as low as 23531.31, suffering near 400 pt loss, but reversed and closed up 0.02% at 23930.15. Nonetheless, S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed in red, down -0.23% and -0.18% respectively. Yen pared back...
Yen Stealing the Show as Dollar Consolidates, Euro and Sterling Tumble on Weak Data
Dollar is trading with a soft tone today as traders are cautiously waiting for tomorrow's job report. And just like how it was in recent months, wage growth will be more important than the headline number. For now, Yen and New Zealand Dollar have stolen the spotlight as both...
Dollar Retreats after FOMC; US, Eurozone and UK Data Awaited
Dollar trades generally lower in Asian session as it has turned into correction mode. While slightly more hawkish than expected, the FOMC statement released overnight provided little inspiration to the markets. Major US equity indices ended in red, with DOW dropped -0.72%, S&P 500 down -0.72% and NASDAQ lost...
US Crude Oil Inventory Increased Much More Than Expected
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products stocks jumped +5.36 mmb (consensus: +0.74 mmb) to 1187.73 mmb in the week ended April 27. Crude oil inventory soared +6.22 mmb to 435.96 mmb, amidst increases in 3 out of 5...
FOMC More Hawkish on Inflation, June Rate Hike a Done Deal
As widely anticipated FOMC left the Fed funds rate target at 1.5-1.75% in May. The accompanying statement also came in largely in line with our expectations – shrugging off moderation in first quarter growth and getting more confident in the inflation outlook. The more hawkish FOMC statement maintained market...
Euro and Sterling Recovered on Economic Data, Dollar Patiently Awaits FOMC
Dollar is trading slightly lower today as markets digest recent against ahead of FOMC rate decision and statement. Slightly better than expected ADP employment is shrugged of by the markets. Euro survived the test of GDP data and recovers mildly. Sterling also gets some support from better than expected...
Dollar Firm as FOMC Awaited, Euro and Sterling Shaky ahead of GDP and PMI
After yesterday's strong rally, Dollar retreats mildly today as markets await FOMC decision. For the week, the greenback remains the strongest one. Canadian Dollar follows as the second strongest, riding on better than expected GDP data. Sterling, on the other hand, is trading as the weakest one, as weighed...
Dollar Resuming Recent Rally, Sterling Tumbles after PMI, Canadian Up on GDP
Dollar resumes recent rally today and breaks last week's high against all major currencies except Canadian Dollar. In particular, GBP/USD has taken out 1.3711 key support level after UK PMI manufacturing missed market expectations. The development is in line with the view of medium term reversal. AUD/USD also breached...
RBA More Upbeat on Growth, Likely on Hold for 2018
Extending the streak for a 19th month, RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% in May. Benign inflation and recent slowdown in employment growth are allowing policymakers to keep the monetary policy accommodative. The accompanying statement was largely unchanged from the previous one, with the key positive coming...
Australian Dollar Steady after RBA Stands Pat, UK PMI Manufacturing to Watch
Australian dollar is steady after RBA left cash rate unchanged at 1.50% as widely expected. Governor Philip Lowe continued to be confident on the economy. He noted in the accompanying statement that "the bank's central forecast for the Australian economy remains for growth to pick up, to average a...
FOMC Preview: Focuses on Inflation and Shrugs Off Temporary Disruption on Growth
There have been both positive and negative data released since the March FOMC meeting. We expect policymakers to view slowdown in GDP growth as driven by temporary factors which should not affect the monetary policy outlook. Meanwhile, the central bank would likely acknowledge recent pickup in core inflation and...
Dollar Staying Range Bound an PCE Matched Expectations, Sterling Rebounds after Initial Selloff
Dollar remains firm in early US session after release of personal income and spending data. But now, the green back is held below Friday's high against all but Sterling. Canadian Dollar follows as the second strongest. The Pound was initial sold off earlier today but then quickly rebounded. It's...