Crude Oil Inventory Jumped Last Week, In Contrast with Expectations of a Draw
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products stocks jumped +6.73 mmb to 1192.25 mmb in the week ended May 18. Crude oil inventory rose +5.78 mmb (consensus: -1.57 mmb) to 438.13 mmb, as inventories rose in PADD I and...
FOMC’s May Minutes Shows Some Dovish Tweaks
The FOMC minutes for the May meeting contain some dovish signs from the Fed. The members remained confident over the economic developments, acknowledging strong employment market and improvement in inflation. However, many of them remained wary of limited wage pressures. The minutes emphasized “the aim of keeping inflation near...
Yen Crosses Dive with Treasury Yields on Risk Aversion, UK and Eurozone Data Misses
Yen surges broadly today as driving by steep decline in major European and US treasury yields. German 10 year bund yield dropped to as low as 0.497, comparing to prior day's close at 0.559, and it's now at 0.500. UK 10 year gilt yield reached as low as 1.446,...
Yen Surges Broadly Risk Appetite Fades, GBPJPY on Shaky Ground ahead of UK CPI
Yen surges broadly today and is trading as the strongest one, followed by Swiss Franc. On the other hand, Canadian, Australian and New Zealand Dollar are under heavy selling pressure. The boost from optimism in China-US trade talk faded quickly and the markets are back in risk-off mode. DOW...
Sterling’s Rebound Lacks Steam as BoE Carney Offered No Inspiration
The forex markets are lacking a clear direction today. Commodity currencies were generally higher earlier today but there was no follow through buying. Instead, as in early US session, the Swiss Franc is the strongest one. Dollar is retreating quite notably since yesterday. But again, there is no follow...
Re-emergence of Monetary Policy Divergence I -European Currencies
Policy Divergence was once a hot topic back in 2015 through early 2017, when the FOMC began to increase the Fed funds rate, while other major central banks maintained extra accommodative monetary polices as they struggled to boost the economies. This was then replaced by the story of convergence...
Australian Dollar Leads Commodity Currencies Higher on Strong Risk Appetite
Global markets are blessed by strong risk appetite this week so far. DOW closed up 298.2 pts or 1.21% at 25013.29. S&P 500 also gained 0.74% while NASDAQ jumped 0.54%. FTSE jumped to record high at 7859.17 while CAC 40 also extended recent up trend to 5637.5. These were...
Sterling Lower ahead of Important Week Brexit Talks, CPI and GDP Revision
The development in the forex markets are pretty much unchanged. Australian, Canadian and US Dollar remain the strongest ones for the day. On the other hand, Japanese Yen and British Pound have been taking turns to be the weakest. Receding risks of US-China trade war is a key focus...
Yen Lower as Receding Trade War Fears Lifts Risk Appetite, Dollar Extending Rally
Yen suffers broad based selling in today as lifted by return of risk appetite. Asian equities trade generally higher on receding fear of US-China trade war. The joint statement released on Saturday is seen as a "vow" to avoid trade war. It's affirmed by comments from US Treasury Secretary...
Italy Policy Turmoil Not Yet Resolved although More Hurdles Cleared for New Government
Italy’s two populist parties – the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the far-right League- have agreed on a prime minister candidate, clearing another hurdle to forming a new coalition government. Over the weekend, members of both parties approved the joint economic policy, finalized last Friday, which showed softer stance...
USD Index Futures Recorded Net Length, First Time since March
As we expected, USD Index futures turned to NET LENGTH of 18 contracts in the week ended May 15. This was driven by increasing pessimism over other major currencies. According to CFTC's Commitments of Traders report, reduction in speculative long positions greatly surpassed that of short for EUR futures,...
Traders Trimmed Long Position on Crude Oil as Price Approaches Peak in Near Term
Speculators generally stayed bullish over the energy complex in the week ended May 15. Although Net LENGTH for crude oil futures slumped -35 484 contracts from a week ago to 644 444, that for heating oil rose +9 610 contracts to 42 070. Also, net LENGTH for gasoline added +11 166 contracts...
Dollar Rally Limited by a Number of Political Factors, Swiss Franc Ended as Strongest
Swiss Franc ended last week as the strongest one, very much thanks to the selloff in EUR/CHF. Uncertainty over the EU policy of the new Italian government sent Euro broadly lower, which ended as the weakest. Despite surge in 10 year yield to 7-year high, Dollar could only extend...
Euro Weighed Down by Italy, CAD Lower on Data, Dollar Back in Spotlight
Dollar takes back the driving street in early US session as it jumps higher against all other major currencies. Swiss Franc is probably the only one that can counter Dollar's strength, as helped by the selloff in EUR/CHF. Euro is weighed down by news that the populist parties of...
Canadian Dollar Lower on NAFTA Deadlock, Awaits CPI and Retail Sales
Dollar remains the strongest one for the week as supported by treasury yields. 10 year yield extended recent rally to close at 3.109 overnight, and it hits as high as 3.127 in Asian session. 30 year yield also jumped to near 30 year high at 3.246, breaking a key...
USDJPY Surges as 10 Year Yield Breaks 3.1, Sterling Pares Gains after May Dismissed Customs Union Stay
Dollar is extending its rally against Yen today, hitting as high as 110.79 so far. Persistent strength in treasury yield is giving the greenback some lift. 10 year yield reached as high as 3.12 earlier today and is staying firm at around 3.1. Nonetheless, while Dollar is firm against...
Sterling Rebounds as UK May Stay in Customs Union after Brexit, Beyond 2021
US treasury yields rally continues with 10 year yield hitting as high as 3.109 in Asian session. But the lift to Dollar is rather non-existence this time. The greenback is trading generally lower against others today and is mixed for the week. Sterling, on the other hand, is the...
Crude Oil in Fresh 3.5-Year Highs on Inventory Draw and Geopolitical Tensions
Renewed geopolitical tensions and decline in US inventory have lifted oil prices, sending the front-month WTI and Brent crude oil contracts to highest levels since 4Q14. The Brent crude, pressing the US$ 80/bbl-level, is about to record its 6th consecutive weekly gain. The strength in oil prices, accompanied by...
Euro Cracked Down by Italian Populist Duo, Safe Haven Flow Caps Dollar Gains
Politics are the main drivers in the forex markets today. Euro tumbles broadly on concern of the populist policies of the coalition government in Italy. EUR/USD finally took out 1.1822 support decisively But the more important development could be in EUR/CHF which dives through 1.8 handle. Dollar actually doesn't...
Dollar Held by Near Term Resistance Despite Yield Inspired Rally
Dollar surged broadly as boosted by rally in US Treasury yield. 10 year yield hit as high as 3.90 overnight, the highest level since 2011, before settling at 3.08. While the greenback is strong, it's struggling to break through near term resistance levels decisively against Euro and Sterling for...