We expect the slowdown in China’s economic growth would be increasingly evident in coming months, reflecting the rapid moderation in credit growth in the first half of the year. PBOC left its policy rate unchanged, although FOMC lifted the Fed funds rate by +25 bps, in June. This was...
Both bulls and bears added bets on US dollar ahead of the June FOMC meeting, as suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended June 12. Both speculative long and short positions were increased in USD Index (DXY) futures, resulting in Net LENGTH of 4 663...
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended Jun 12, net LENGTH for crude oil futures soared +11 717 contracts to 595 293. Net LENGTH for heating oil futures dropped -4 208 contracts to 34 597 while that for gasoline declined -7 965 contracts to 85 868....
Dollar surged broadly last week as Fed policymakers finally made up their mind on hiking a total of four times this year, as reflected in the new projections. The greenback was also helped by ECB monetary policy decision, with traders disappointed on the rate path. The headlines were then...
US stocks futures are rocked by the announcement on formalizing the Section 301 tariffs against China. DOW futures point to triple digit loss at open and could threaten 25000 handle. The forex markets are relatively calm though. Euro is paring back some of yesterday's post ECB losses and takes...
Dollar is trading as the strongest one as partly helped by the post ECB selloff in Euro. In part, there were delayed reactions to the hawkish Fed announcement too, which indicates it will hike two more times this year. The greenback in extending it's strong, broad based gains in...
ECB's decisions in June came in largely in line with our expectations, although it might have contained surprises for other market participants. The central bank decides to reduce the size of its QE program to 15B euro/ month, from the current 30B euro/ month, from October. The entire purchase...
Euro drops sharply today as markets are not quite happy with ECB announcement. In particular, while deciding to end the asset purchase program this year, ECB said interest rate will remain at current level at least through 2019 summer. President Mario Draghi also sounds cautious as usual in the...
Dollar got a very brief lift overnight as Fed delivered a hawkish rate hike. But it quickly lost steam as weighed down by concern over trade war between US and China. For today, the greenback is only trading slightly better than Australian Dollar, which is weighed down by its...
Decided unanimously, FOMC raised the Fed funds rate by +25 bps to a range of 1.75-2.00%. In a technical adjustment, it also lifted the interest rate paid on required and excess reserve balances, by +20 bps, to 1.95% so as to maintain the trading in the fed funds market...
Dollar is trading in soft tone in range against most major currencies except versus Yen and Sterling. The greenback shrugs off stronger than expected PPI as markets are awaiting FOMC rate hike, economic projections and press conference. Sterling is trading as the weakest one today as headline UK CPI...
Dollar is generally staying in familiar range, except versus Japanese Yen as markets await FOMC rate decision today. The federal funds rate is expected to be lifted by 25bps to 1.75-2.00%. There is practically no chance for Fed to disappoint the markets. Yet, there are a number of questions...
On June 12 and 13 the House of Commons, the lower house of the parliament, is due to vote on the 15 amendments proposed by the House of Lords, the upper house of the parliament. The key amendment – “meaningful vote”, has been rejected by the Commons, avoiding humiliation...
The forex markets are struggling to find a clear direction today despite all the high profile events. US headline CPI jumped to 6 year high in May while core CPI also accelerated. But Dollar is getting no lift from it. UK wage growth missed expectation even though the overall...
The financial markets are steadily optimistic so far this week and that can be reflected in the rebound in German bund yield and US 10 year yield. Yen is trading broadly lower today, followed by the Swiss Franc. Australian, New Zealand and US Dollar are trading mildly higher. Eyes...
While the spats between US and G6 countries made a lot of headlines, they're not much bothered by the market-smart investors who know what are important. The summit between North Korean Leader Kim Jong-un and US president Donald Trump is currently in the spotlight. But it will likely fade...
The recovery in euro since late-May gathered momentum last week after ECB Chief Economist and executive board member Peter Praet signaled the central bank would discuss QE tapering at this week’s meeting. We are not surprised by this as it is appropriate for the members to communicate with the...
Asian markets open the week rather firmly, shrugging of the Trump triggered chaos in G7 leaders meeting over the weekend. At the time of writing, Nikkei is trading up nearly 0.6% while HK HSI is up 0.28%. Focus has quickly turned to Kim-Trump summit in Singapore but that's unlikely...
A rate hike of +25 bps at the upcoming FOMC meeting is a done deal as the market has for months priced in over 90% chance of its occurrence. Recent macroeconomic developments indicate such rate hike is totally justified. The focuses are on the forward guidance on the future...
Both bulls and bears trimmed bets on US dollar after its rally to the highest level in over 6 months, as suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended June 5. Both speculative long and short positions were reduced but the latter overwhelmed, resulting in...