Yen and Dollar Surge as US Moves on with Tariffs on $200B in Chinese Imports
Yen and Dollar are both strong as the US announced to move on with 10% tariffs on another USD 200B in Chinese imports. That could come into effect as soon as in September. Asian Markets are broadly in red. At the time of writing, China Shanghai SSE is down...
Theresa May Walks Brexit Tightrope after Two Senior Officials Quitted, Key Dates ahead
While the optimists suggest that the latest political turmoil in the UK has increased the chance of a “soft" Brexit which is positive for UK’s economic outlook and the British pound, we see ongoing uncertainty in the negotiations with the EU. Pro-Brexit Dominic Raab has replaced the David Davis...
Dollar Rallies as Euro Pressured by German ZEW Miss, Yen Lower on Risk Appetite
Dollar strengthens broadly today, partly with help from Euro's post data weakness. Much weaker than expected German ZEW economic sentiment is giving some pressure to the common currency. On the other hand, USD/JPY surges through 111.13 temporary top and is now taking on 111.39 key near term resistance. Yen's...
Bets for Falling GBP Likely Increase Further as Political Turmoil Heightens Brexit Uncertainty
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended July 3, bets for US dollar increased modestly on both sides. Speculative long positions for USD Index (DXY) futures added +2 399 contracts while shorts added +1 953 contracts, resulting in a Net LENGTH of 18 672...
Sterling Stabilized after Wild Ride, Strong Risk Appetite Continues to Pressure Yen
Strong risk appetite is keeping the Japanese Yen broadly weak this week. DOW jumped as impressive 302.11 pts or 1.31% to close at 24776.59, turned positive for 2018. S&P 500 followed by rising 24.35 pts or 0.88% to 2784.17. NASDAQ gained 67.81 pts or 0.88% to 7756.20 and is...
Traders Increased Bets on Higher Crude Oil and Gasoline Prices
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended July 3, net LENGTH for crude oil futures soared +31 629 contracts to 656 720. Net LENGTH for heating oil futures rose +2 297 contracts to 49 443 while that for gasoline added +1 145 contracts to 96...
Sterling’s Fortune Reversed after Boris Johnson Resignation
While the reaction to former Brexit Minister David Davis was largely muted, the situation seemed to change drastically after adding former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson. Prime Minister Theresa May wanted to provide certainty to UK businesses with her locked up meeting in the Chequers with cabinet last Friday on...
Sterling Strengthens Broadly as Davis Resignation is Seen as Good For Soft Brexit
Quick update: Sterling drops notably after Foreign Minister Boris Johnson finally resigns. judging from the current price action, Boris's resignation seems to be taken more seriously by the markets than Davis's.
The global stock markets are in positive mood today. Major European indices open higher, following the strengthen in Asian...
Sterling Volatile on Brexit Jitters, Yen Lower as Chinese Stocks Lead Asian Rebound
Yen trades broadly lower today, followed by Dollar, as Asian markets recovered broadly. China's Shanghai SSE composite leads the way by gaining 1.9% and breaches 2800 handle. It looks like some solid support was obtained between 2016 low at 2638 and 2700 psychological. Current momentum warrants a near term...
BOC Preview – Rate Hike Fully Priced In, Data and Trade with US Continue to Guide Future Path
Since the BOC meeting in May, at which the policymakers removed the “cautious” rhetoric, the market has been raising its bet on a July rate hike. As of today, the market has priced in over 90% chance of a +25 bps rate hike at this week’s meeting. GDP growth...
US, European and Asian Markets Reacted Differently to Start of US-China Trade War
The global markets reacted rather differently as the US-China trade war formally started while there were only signs of further escalations. Over the week, NASDAQ was a star performer and rose 2.37% to 7510.30. S&P 500 rose in tandem by 1.52% to 2759.82. DOW lagged behind but also managed...
Dollar Pullback Resumes as NFP Risks Cleared
Dollar trades notably lower in early US session despite stronger than expected headline NFP number. The rise in unemployment rate and slower than expected wage growth could be the factors. But it's more likely just continuing this week's pull back after NFP risk is cleared. Yen is following as...
US Crude Oil Inventory Unexpectedly Increased
Crude oil prices fell as US inventory surprisingly increased last week. The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products stocks gained +3.3 mmb to 1206.9 mmb in the week ended June 29. Crude oil inventory added +1.25 mmb (consensus: -3.54...
FOMC Minutes: Members Urged Attentions on Yield Curve, Change in Forward Guidance
The FOMC minutes for the June meeting revealed that the members were confident over the growth and inflation outlook, although they acknowledged intensifying trade conflicts. There were discussions over the term structure of interest rates. While many of them were concerned over the flattening of US treasury yield curve,...
Asian Markets Down as US-China Trade War Formally Starts, Dollar Recovers ahead of NFP
Asian markets are trading broadly lower today as the US is set to start the Section 301 tariffs on Chinese imports, and the latter's retaliation is also ready. This would mark an important turning point as the risks of trade war is finally realized. China's Shanghai SSE breached 2700...
Euro Rises Broadly on Hope of Averting US-EU Trade War on Cars
Euro surges broadly today on hope that there will finally be a point of convergence between European Union and the US to avoid a trade war on cars. The optimism is also reflected in stocks as automaker shares led DAX higher, which is up 1.44% at the time of...
Yen Slightly Higher as Markets Stay in Consolidative Mode
Yen is trading slightly higher in Asian session today as the markets are quietly soft. Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar are the weakest ones. At the time of writing, Nikkei is down -1.0%, HK HSI is down -0.9% while China SSE is down -0.9% too. Some attention will be...
Sterling Jumps after PMI Hat Tricks, Gains Limited in Subdued Market
Activity in the financial markets are relatively muted today with the US on holiday. European indices are mixed in tight range with FTSE dropped -0.2%, DAX down -0.3%, CAC up 0.1% at the time of writing. In the currency markets, Sterling is lifted but a hat-trick of stronger than...
Dollar Broadly in Red ahead of Holiday, Risk Aversion Continues
Investor sentiments remain generally pessimistic. US stocks attempted for rebound in shortened session overnight but failed. DOW ended losing -132.36 pts or -0.54%. S&P 500 dropped -0.49% while NASDAQ declined -0.86%. Safe haven flows limited treasuries with 10 year yield dropped -0.028 to 2.838. Selloff continues in Asia with...
After Historic Election, Mexico’s Future Still Depends on Trade and Fed
Andres Manual Lopex Obrador (a.k.a. AMLO), leader of the leftist National Regeneration Movemen (MORENA), won the presidency with landslide victory at Mexico’s general election held last Sunday. Gaining 53% of the vote, his support is far higher than his major competitor Ricardo Anaya (22.5%) of the National Action Party....