Euro Tumbles on Italian Yield, German Data and IMF Growth Downgrade
Euro suffers heavy selling today as German-Italian yield spread widens further to above 310. It's clear that Italy is not doing to back down on its budget deficit plan despite strong criticism from EU. Besides, it would be facing risks of downgrade by credit agencies. Additional Euro weighed down...
Markets Mixed as Risk Aversion Peaked Temporarily, Dollar Turned into Corrective Mode
The financial markets are mixed in Asia today as risk aversion seemed to have peaked for now. NASDAQ led US stocks decline overnight a hit as low as 7654.84 but closed down only -0.67% at 7735.95. S&P 500 also dipped to 2862.08 but closed down -0.04% at 2884.43. DOW...
Yen Rises as Italy Prompts Risk Aversion, Euro and Sterling Weak
Yen surges broadly today as risk aversion dominates the markets. Italy is at the center of storm as yield spread with Germany stays above 300 alarming level, on concerns over budget deficit. Despite criticism from EU and risk of credit rating downgrade, the populist government doesn't appear to be...
China Eases Monetary Policy Further, Intervening to Avoid Sharp Fall in Renminbi
China announced to cut RRR by 100 bps, effective October 15 and applicable to all types of banks, including large commercial banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, non-county rural commercial banks, and foreign banks whose current RRR stand at 15.5% (large banks) or 13.5% (small to medium banks). The...
Australian Dollar Recovers as Chinese Stocks Down But Not Out after Holiday
Risk aversion continues in Asian market but there is no disastrous development. Chinese stocks are back from holiday, down -3%. That's just playing catch up to last week's broad based decline in other Asian markets. China's RRR cut on Sunday stabilized sentiments somewhat, without giving it any lift though....
CFTC Commitments of Traders – EUR Futures Drifted to NET SHORT on Italy Deficit Concerns
USD bulls lost ground as the greenback corrected from its peak. As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended October 2, NET LENGTH of USD index climbed mildly higher, by +27 contracts to 37 036 contracts. Both speculative long and short positions increased only...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET LENGTH for WTI Crude Oil Dropped as Price Peaks
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended October 2, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures dropped as prices were peaking. Meanwhile, NET LENGTH heating oil and gasoline futures increased further, and NET SHORT for natural gas futures declined. Speculative long positions of crude oil...
Dollar Surged on Treasury Yields and Bets on Fed Hikes, Except Versus Sterling
It's another week's that's full of headlines. Sterling ended as the strongest one on revised hope of a Brexit deal with the EU despite all the rhetorics. UK Prime Minister Theresa May also survived the Conservative Party conference without dance but no disaster. Dollar followed as the second strongest...
Dollar Steady after Mixed NFP, But Risks More Downside as Consolidation Extends
Dollar stays steady in early US session after mixed non-farm payrolls report. Even though Canada reported a set of far more impressive data, USD/CAD is back into tight range after initial knee-jerk reactions. For now, Sterling is the strongest one for today, followed by the greenback. Yen is the...
Democrats Might Regain Control of House, And Then?
Opinion polls suggest that the upcoming US midterm elections, scheduled on November 6, would lead to a split Congress – Democrat regaining control of the House and Republic retaining majority of the Senate. Such outcome could lead to political gridlock and more vigilant oversight of Trump’s administration. Yet, the...
Dollar Firms Up as Markets Await Non-Farm Payrolls from US
Dollar firm up mildly together with Yen as markets await non-farm payroll report today. The greenback suffered brief setback overnight as traders turned a bit cautious ahead of job report. But Dollar quickly find footing from surging treasury yields. Canadian Dollar also firm up slightly today. BoC is widely...
Dollar Pares Gains after Strong Rally, Sterling Recovers
Dollar retreats broadly in early US session as this week's rally lost some momentum. The greenback might need some help from tomorrow's non-farm payrolls report if it's to extend the rise. Still, Australian and New Zealand Dollar are the weakest ones on monetary policy divergence and risk aversion. Sterling...
Dollar Surged on Hawkish Fed While Treasury Yield Broke Significant Resistance
Dollar surged sharply overnight as boosted by hawkish Fedspeaks, strong rally in treasury yields as well as, solid services data. The greenback is paring some gains in Asian session, to Yen and Swiss Franc on risk aversion. But overall, Dollar remains firm, awaiting tomorrow's non-farm payroll report for more...
Crude Oil Price Firmed at 4-Week High Despite Surprising Inventory Build
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products stocks jumped +7.96 mmb to 1248.71 mmb in the week ended September 28. Crude oil inventory rallied +7.98 mmb (consensus: +1.99 mmb) to 403.96 mmb. Inventories increased in 6 out of 5...
Dollar Regains Control as Euro Recovery Fades, Strong ADP Job Gives an Extra Push
Dollar is back in control today and it's trading as the second strongest one in early US session, next to Sterling. Stronger than expected ADP employment report, which showed 230k growth in September, gives the greenback an extra push. Sterling is rather steady as UK Prime Minister Theresa May's...
Italy Rating Downgrade Inevitable Although Government Might Water Down Stimulus
(Update: The Italian government has announced that it would now set the budget deficit targets to 2.4% of GDP for 2019, 2.1% for 2020 and 1.8% for 2021. Given short-lived and fractious nature of Italian government, we view these targets with suspicion. Suggest to continue monitoring the debt problems of...
Euro Recovers on Italy Budget Rumor, Risk Aversion Persists in Asia
Euro recovers broadly today on new that the final version of Italy's budget could be less worse than originally reported. More details could be published today and we'll see how the common currency, as well as German and Italian yield react. Meanwhile, Sterling also recovers as markets prefer for...
Risk Aversion Dominates as Australian Dollar, Sterling and Euro Slide
Euro suffered heavy selling today as Italy and EU stepped up rhetorics on budget clashes. But even heavier selling is seen in Australian, New Zealand Dollar and Sterling. Steep decline in Hong Kong stocks hints that China markets will likely come back from holiday next week facing much troubles....
Trump’s USMCA – NAFTA 2.0 or Old Wine in New Bottles? And, Prepared for China Too?
Canada and the US eventually reached a preliminary trade deal, named USMCA, just a few hours before the US-imposed negotiation deadline. Obviously, the market was thrilled by the “breakthrough”, evidenced by the rally of Canadian dollar and, to a lesser extent, Mexican peso against the greenback. While there are...
Euro Weakens as Italy on Track to Clash with EU on Budget, Aussie steady after RBA
Canadian Dollar remains firm on the USMCA trade deal but it's waiting for fresh stimulus to extend rally against Dollar and Yen. Australian Dollar is also steady after RBA stands pat and published a neutral statement as widely expected. Meanwhile, Euro is suffering some fresh selling on persistent worries...