Dollar Trying to Recover as NFP Beat Expectations, Euro Strong as German-Italian Spread Narrows
After being pressured for most of the day, Dollar is trying to recover in early US session after better than expected job data. Though, momentum remains weak so far, and the greenback is trading mixed only. On the other hand, there is little change in Yen's fortune, which remains...
Progress in US-China Trade Talks Boosts Sentiments and Australian Dollar, Non-Farm Payroll Watched
Asian stocks, as well as Australian and New Zealand Dollar, are shot up by optimism that US-China trade negotiation is having some nice progress. At the time of writing, Hong Kong HSI is leading the way up with 2.4% gain. China Shanghai SSE is up 1.21%. Nikkei and Singapore...
Hawkish Carney Signals Overheating Economy Could Accelerate BOE Rate Hikes
As widely anticipated, BOE voted unanimously to keep all monetary policies unchanged in November. The Bank rate stays unchanged at 0.75%. Meanwhile, purchases of gilts and corporate bonds remain at 435B pound and 10B pound, respectively. The central bank sent a more hawkish-than-expected message to the market. While reiterating...
Sterling Strong as Supported by More Confident BoE, Ignores Brexit Deal Dismissal and Weak Data
Sterling remains strong in general today, next to Australian and New Zealand Dollar. UK and EU officials came out dismissing the news regarding a Brexit financial services deal. But that didn't harm the Pound a bit. Instead, Sterling ignore weak manufacturing data and is supported by slightly more confidence...
US Crude Oil Inventory Increased for Another Week as Output Soared
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products stocks declined -6.4 mmb to 1248.6 mmb in the week ended October 26. Crude oil inventory increased +3.22 mmb (consensus: +4.11 mmb) to 426 mmb. Inventories increased in 3 out of of...
Sterling Rides on Brexit Optimism, Look into BoE Economic Projections
Sterling surged overnight on Brexit optimism and is boosted further in Asia with more Brexit-positive news. Though, for today, it's overwhelmed by Australian and New Zealand Dollar on strong risk appetite. The Pound will need to look into BoE economic projections for more inspirations. Dollar, on the other hand,...
Dollar Lifted by Strong ADP Employment, EUR/USD to Take on 1.13 Key Support
Dollar is trading broadly higher today. In particular, new buying emerges after stronger than expected ADP employment report. USD/CHF breaches 1.0067 key resistance. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is also closing in on 1.1300 key support. Nonetheless, Dollar is overwhelmed by Sterling, which is the strongest one today. There is practically no...
Brexit: No News is Bad News
At the meeting later this week, we expect BOE members to vote unanimously to keep the Bank rate unchanged at 0.75% and the asset purchase program at 435B pound. The macroeconomic indicators released during the inter-meeting period are mixed, while no progress on Brexit negotiations although the deadline is...
Dollar Regains Control as Stocks and Yield Rebound, Facing Key Levels Against Euro, Sterling and Franc
Dollar index jumped overnight and breached 96.98 key resistance, with the help from rebound in stocks and treasury yields. But strength of the greenback mainly centered against Sterling, Swiss Franc and Yen. It's holding in range against Euro, Canadian and Australian for the moment. As for today, Sterling is...
Yen Extends Fall as Calm Markets Shrug US-China Trade War Threats
Yen trades broadly lower today as stock markets stabilized in both Asian and Europe. Meanwhile, Sterling, and Euro are following as the weakest. There is no sign of breakout of any kind in Brexit negotiation. Economic data out of Eurozone were also disappointing and point to further slow down....
Populist Sentiment Still Evolving – Brazil and Germany Markets Responded Positively
The Brazilian presidential and German state elections over the weekend have sent a common message - the desire for change. The election results reveal that the anti-establishment and populist sentiment continues to ferment. Both elections have led to severe loss of the establishment and upsurge in the right-wing, populist...
Asian Markets Rebound as Trump Toned Down Trade War Threat, Dollar and Yen Soften
Early rebound in US stocks overnight initially supported Dollar. But the greenback couldn't hold on to the gains as stocks suffered steep reversal. Fed's rate hike was not the reason for the selloff. Instead, the trigger of the late selloff in US equities was threat of Trump's escalation of...
Yen Broadly Lower as European Stocks Surge on Italy, Dollar Mixed after PCE
Improved risk sentiment is the main theme of today. Italian stocks lead other Europeans higher as investors responded well to S&P's decision to keep Italy's ratings unchanged, two notches above junk. Additionally, auto shares are lifted by report that China is considering to cut car purchase tax by half....
Italy Credit Rating – Further Downgrades are Yet to Come
Italy's budget problem continues to haunt. S&P refrained from downgrading Italy's sovereign credit rating, keeping it at BBB, two notches above junk grade. Yet, the relief might just be temporary as the rating agency has placed the country in "negative" watch, suggesting a downgrade can come with the 24-month...
Muted Reaction to S&P Rating Review on Italy, UK Hammond’s Budget Speech Awaited
Commodity currencies are trading mildly higher today as Asian markets turned mixed. Australian Dollar is the stronger one, followed by New Zealand. On the other hand, Swiss Franc is the weakest, followed by Euro and Yen. Reactions to S&P's rating review on Italy were rather muted. Sterling is also...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – All Major Currencies in NET SHORT, Except USD
The CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended October 23 shows that all major currencies (except USD) were in NET SHORT positions. Bets on USD index increased on both sides. Speculative longs gained +2 989 contracts while shorts added +2 837, sending the NET LENGTH higher, by...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Longs as Oil Price Slump Accelerated
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended October 23, NET LENGTH for crude oil, heating oil and gasoline futures all continued to drop. Oil prices dived during the reporting week, with the front-month WTI crude oil contract sinking -7.63% while the Brent contract was...
Investors Starting to Change Their Mind on Fed Hike Path after Global Stock Market Rout
Global stock market rout intensified last week with major indices ended in deep red. Over the week, Nikkei was the worst performing one and lost -5.98%. S&P 500 was the worst one in the US and dropped -3.94%. NASDAQ closed down -3.78%, DOW down -2.97%. In Europe, DAX was...
Dollar Firm as Q3 GDP Beat Expectations, Yen Even Stronger as Risk Aversion Intensifies Again
Yen and Dollar are trading as the strongest ones today as risk aversion intensifies again in European session. Stronger than expected Q3 GDP growth in the US is giving Dollar some support. But it's so far not enough to turn the tide with Yen. Commodity currencies are the weakest...
Australian Dollar Extends Down Trend, Yen Strong as Asian Stocks Ignore US Rebound
US equities staged a strong rebound overnight with DOW ended up more than 400 pts. But positive sentiment didn't carry on in Asia as major indices are all in red. Intensification in selloff in the Chinese Yuan is a possible factor even though we're not too convinced by this...