Traders Deepened Bets on Higher US Dollar; Long Positions for Safe Haven Currencies Might Turn Positive Next Week on Heightened Geopolitics
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended August 7, speculative long positions increased +1 039 contracts in USD index futures, while shorts dropped -607 contracts, resulting in an increase in NET LENGTH to 30 102 contracts for the week.
For European currencies, traders...
CFTC Commitments of Traders: Gold Lost Safe Asset Appeal
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended August 7, traders turned less bullish towards the energy complex. They trimmed bets for crude oil and heating oil futures, while raising short positions on gasoline futures. Net LENGTH for crude oil futures fell -4 473 contracts...
Looking Through the Turkish Currency Crisis, Dollar is Strong Anyway
It was one of those wild week in the financial markets with a number of market moving themes. New Zealand Dollar was the worst performing one after RBNZ made itself clear that interest rate is going to stay low for longer. And the next move could either be up...
Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc Surge as Turkish Crisis Prompts Flight to Safety
Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc are trading as the strongest ones today as supported by solid safe haven flow. The free fall in Turkish Lira raised concerns of contagion to Eurozone financial system. Such worries sends the Euro broadly lower, even though Australian Dollar performs even worse. Crisis speech...
Erdogan is to Blame For Turkish Lira’s Free Fall
While US sanctions against Turkey have dominated news headlines, recent selloff of Turkish lira is a vote of dissent to the policy of the new government. After his “re-election”, President Tayyip Erdogan has grabbed tighter control of the economic and monetary policies. However, the policies implemented have failed to...
Euro Takes Center Stage With EUR/USD Breaking 1.5 Critical Support, Dollar and Yen Rally
The focus in the forex market shifts just before weekly close. Selloff in Euro has clearly intensified, in particular with EUR/USD finally breaking through 1.5 support level. The development also drags down Australian Dollar as both are now trading as the weakest ones. That could partly be attributed to...
Sterling Recovers, Dollar Mixed in Listless Trading
The forex markets are relatively directionless today, except overwhelming weakness in New Zealand Dollar. Sterling recovers broadly today on rumor that the EU is considering to offer a major Brexit concession to the UK. But there is so far no detail on the deal. Oversold condition also helps the...
New Zealand Dollar Dives after Dovish RBNZ, Sterling Stays Weak
New Zealand Dollar is clearly the biggest loser today after more dovish than expected RBNZ rate decision. Sterling is following as the second weakest, continues to be weighed down by no-deal Brexit worries. On the other hand, Canadian Dollar is staging a strong rebound as markets look pass the...
US Crude Oil Inventory Fell Less Than Expected, Fuel Stockpiles Climbed Higher
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products stocks increased +3.28 mmb to 1209.86 mmb in the week ended August 4. Crude oil inventory dropped -1.35 mmb (consensus: -3.33 mmb) to 407.39 mmb. Inventories decreased in 3 out of 5...
RBNZ Delays Timing for Rate Change and Inflation to Reach +2%, Kiwi Slumps
RBNZ’s August statement comes in more dovish than we had anticipated. While leaving the OCR unchanged at 1.75%, the members pushed backward expectations for the next interest rate adjustment. Moreover, they pushed back the timing for inflation to reach the +2% target. New Zealand dollar slumped after the announcement....
Sterling Plunges as No-Deal Brexit Becoming More Likely, Yen Shows Broad Based Strength
Sterling plunges sharply today as markets are seeing increasing change of a no-deal Brexit. Adding that, GBP/USD's break of 1.2956 earlier this week and EUR/GBP's break of 0.8957 resistance yesterday also adds to broad based pressure on the Pound. Australian Dollar follows as the second weakest at this point....
Euro Rebound Accelerates as China Turned to EU for Imports Overwhelmingly Amid Trade War with US
Euro trades broadly higher in Asian session today, except versus New Zealand Dollar. The common currency is extending this week's powerful rebound. Meanwhile, Canadian Dollar is trading as the weakest one, followed but Dollar as the second weakest. For the week, Euro remains the strongest one on a powerful...
Dollar Selloff Accelerates after Failing Resistance, Australian Dollar Strong on Fading Risk Aversion
Dollar trades broadly lower today and selloff accelerates in early US session. EUR/USD's reversal ahead of 1.1507 key support level is a factor pressing the greenback. The Chinese Yuan is also attempting another rebound after yesterday's brief setback, with USD/CNH back pressing 6.82.
The overall development helps lifted global equities...
RBA Keeps Policy Rate at Record Low for Two Years; Might Downgrade 2018 Inflation Forecast
RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% for the 22nd meeting today. The accompanying statement continued to deliver a “neutral” tone on the future path of the monetary policy. Since the last meeting, domestic economic growth has stayed, and will stay, “above trend” while the job market has...
Australian Dollar Steady after RBA Stands Pat, Dollar Pare Gains But Stays Firm
The forex markets are rather steady in Asian session today. Dollar is paring some gains and trades slightly lower. But it remains the strongest one for the week together with Canadian Dollar. New Zealand Dollar, however, trades broadly lower as markets expect that RBNZ could be slightly dovish in...
RBNZ Preview – Policy Rate On Hold, Overall Tone Neutral or Slightly Dovish
At the August 9 meeting (this Thursday), we expect RBNZ to leave the OCR unchanged at 1.75% and deliver a neutral to slightly dovish policy statement. Since the June meeting, data showed that economic growth moderated while inflation picked up. In the job market, the unemployment rate climbed higher...
Sterling Sold Off on Worries of No-Deal Brexit, Dollar Strong
Sterling is trading as the weakest major currency today as the talks on no-deal Brexit heat up. UK Prime Minister Theresa May's spokesman tried to tone down the risks but the markets simply don't listen. Swiss Franc follows as the second weakest as major European indices rebound. in early...
PBOC Imposes FX Reserve Requirement as Renminbi Selloff Gets Alarming
PBOC announced last Friday to impose 20% reserve requirement ratio (RRR) on onshore (CNY) FX forward transactions. Despite the central bank’s denial, the move is obviously to moderate recent sharp depreciation of renminbi. Such measure was implemented on October 15, 2015, before removal on September 11, 2017, in an...
Dollar Gains Broadly, as the Impact of Chinese Yuan Intervention Fades Quickly
Dollar gains broadly in a rather quiet start to the week. Asian stocks are given a lift by China's move to stabilize the Yuan. But the impact quickly fades. At the time of writing, Nikkei is nearly flat after initial rally to 22635. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.7%...
Traders Trimmed USD Positions ahead of FOMC and Job Data Last Week
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended July 31, traders trimmed bets on USD index (DXY) futures. Speculative long positions slid -372 contracts while shorts declined -3 557 contracts, resulting in an increase in NET LENGTH to 28 456 contracts for the week....