Muted Reaction to S&P Rating Review on Italy, UK Hammond’s Budget Speech Awaited
Commodity currencies are trading mildly higher today as Asian markets turned mixed. Australian Dollar is the stronger one, followed by New Zealand. On the other hand, Swiss Franc is the weakest, followed by Euro and Yen. Reactions to S&P's rating review on Italy were rather muted. Sterling is also...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – All Major Currencies in NET SHORT, Except USD
The CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended October 23 shows that all major currencies (except USD) were in NET SHORT positions. Bets on USD index increased on both sides. Speculative longs gained +2 989 contracts while shorts added +2 837, sending the NET LENGTH higher, by...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Longs as Oil Price Slump Accelerated
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended October 23, NET LENGTH for crude oil, heating oil and gasoline futures all continued to drop. Oil prices dived during the reporting week, with the front-month WTI crude oil contract sinking -7.63% while the Brent contract was...
Investors Starting to Change Their Mind on Fed Hike Path after Global Stock Market Rout
Global stock market rout intensified last week with major indices ended in deep red. Over the week, Nikkei was the worst performing one and lost -5.98%. S&P 500 was the worst one in the US and dropped -3.94%. NASDAQ closed down -3.78%, DOW down -2.97%. In Europe, DAX was...
Dollar Firm as Q3 GDP Beat Expectations, Yen Even Stronger as Risk Aversion Intensifies Again
Yen and Dollar are trading as the strongest ones today as risk aversion intensifies again in European session. Stronger than expected Q3 GDP growth in the US is giving Dollar some support. But it's so far not enough to turn the tide with Yen. Commodity currencies are the weakest...
Australian Dollar Extends Down Trend, Yen Strong as Asian Stocks Ignore US Rebound
US equities staged a strong rebound overnight with DOW ended up more than 400 pts. But positive sentiment didn't carry on in Asia as major indices are all in red. Intensification in selloff in the Chinese Yuan is a possible factor even though we're not too convinced by this...
ECB Reveals No Details about Reinvestment. December in Focus
ECB left it policy rates and the asset purchase program unchanged. The members remained confident over the economic outlook but acknowledges some risks, including protectionism and financial market volatility, that could derail the recovery path. As we had anticipated, ECB has kept the details of the reinvestment schedule after...
Euro Recovers Briefly on Confident ECB Draghi, But Strength Fades Quickly
Euro enjoys a brief recovery after ECB stands pat on monetary. ECB President Mario Draghi expressed his confidence on inflation outlook due to underlying strength of the economy. But together with other European majors, the common currency is quickly under selling pressure again. Dollar is trading to rally in...
Yen Rally Continues as Nikkei Suffers Worst Selloff in Asia, Euro Decline Halts ahead of ECB
Risk aversion is back as the main theme in the global financial markets. The crash in the US overnight has spreaded to Asia. At the time of writing, Japanese Nikkei is down -756 pts or -3.42%, being the worst performer in Asia. 10 year JGB yield also suffers another...
BOC Review – Hiking Policy Rate to 1.75% with Hawkish Bias
The market was thrilled by BOC’s hawkish comments accompanying the widely-anticipated +25 bps rate hike. With the uncertainty of future trade relationship with the US reduced and economic growth on track, the members judged that it is prudent to move to “neutral” interest rate. Removal of the “gradual” rate...
US Crude Oil Inventory Jumped Significantly, Fuel Stockpiles Declined
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products stocks declined -7.99 mmb to 1254.99 mmb in the week ended October 19. Crude oil inventory rallied +6.35 mmb (consensus: +3.69 mmb) to 422.79 mmb. Inventories increased in 4 out of of...
Euro Tumbles as PMI Readings Suggest ECB Easing Bias, Dollar Firm With Canadian and Australian
The theme of the markets have switched from risk aversion to selloff in European majors today. In particular, Euro leads other down after weak PMIs point to further slow down in the economy. Even worse, Markit expects that the PMI readings are now consistent with ECB easing bias. And...
Yen Lower as Risk Aversion Recedes, Canadian Dollar Awaits BoC Hike
Despite initial steep selloff, US equities staged a strong rebound before close and closed just slightly lower. The turnaround in sentiments carried on in Asian session with major indices all trading in black. With receding risk aversion, Australian and New Zealand Dollar are trading as the strongest one for...
Yen Surges as Global Stock Rout Extends, Sterling Lifted by Brexit Rumor
Risk aversion is the main theme in the financial markets today and all major global stock indices are in deep red. DOW futures are also down more than -400 pts at the time of writing. However, Sterling defies gravity and is trading as the strongest together with Japanese Yen...
Yen Rises & Aussie Falls as Nikkei Leads Asian Stocks Lower
Australian and New Zealand Dollar are trading as the weakest ones today. Nikkei's sharp, over -2% decline led Asian markets lower. Risk aversion is popping up the Japanese Yen. For today, Canadian Dollar is the second strongest, followed by Dollar. For the week, though, Sterling is the worst performing...
ECB Likely More Cautious amid Soft Core Inflation and Italy. Reinvestment Details to be Revealed in December
We expect ECB to emphasize downside risk to growth in this week's meeting on October 25. That would be a slight shift from the more hawkish stance at the last meeting six weeks ago. With the path of QE announced in June, the focus is on the reinvestment arrangement....
Euro Rally Falters on Italy, Sterling Extending Selloff on Brexit
Italy is the center of focus in a rather quiet day. The highly anticipated response to EU on its budget is delivered. And there is little surprise that Italy insists on sticking with it's budget deficit target of 2019. Euro's rally attempt falters after that and turned mixed. Nonetheless,...
BOC Preview – Rate Hike Fully Priced but Future Decision Still Data- Dependent
The market has fully priced in that BOC would raise its policy rate by +25 bps to 1.75% this week. With Canada-US trade uncertainty eased and the employment market staying strong, the focus is on whether policymakers would consider accelerating the pace of normalization. Notwithstanding a rosier picture, the...
Chinese Stocks Lead Asia Higher, But Australian Dollar Soft
Asian stocks are in full risk-on mode as the week starts. China's Shanghai SSE leads the way by rising 4.56% at the time of writing, back above 2600 handle at 2666. Some attribute the rebound to words of top Chinese official, including President Xi Jinping who vowed to "unwavering"...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Speculations on Currencies amid Looming Uncertainty
The CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended October 16 indicates that positioning on major currencies lowered as a whole. Speculative long positions for USD index futures dropped -2 635 contracts while shorts fell -2 802, sending the NET LENGTH higher, by +167 contracts, to 37 876...