Yen Weakens as Stocks Rebound, But Dollar Fails to Capture after Weak Data
Overall, market sentiments stabilized today as started in Asian session. With the help of rebound in Asian and strengthen Europe, US stocks are set to open higher to pare some of yesterday's steep losses. As a result, New Zealand and Australian Dollar are the strongest ones for today so...
Risk Sentiments Stabilized in Asia, Brexit and Italy Budget Back in Spotlight
While Asian markets initially opened lower following the US, major indices turned positive after lunch. The development lifted Australian and New Zealand Dollar slightly. But Canadian Dollar is treated differently as weighed down by resumption of free fall in oil prices. The Loonie is trading as the weakest for...
Oil Update – Oversupply Likely Continues to Weigh on Oil Prices Next Year
Crude oil prices have declined for 6 consecutive weeks. A confluence of factor has triggered the sharp selloff: concerns that the slowdown of Chinese economic growth would accelerate, reports that Russia would not join OPEC to cut output further, Trump called for Saudi Arabia to raise output, news of...
Risk Aversion Intensifying, Yen and Swiss Franc Rally
Risk aversion dominates the global markets today and is intensifying. Major European indices are trading broadly lower with sign of downside acceleration. US futures also point to lower open, with DOW having triple-digit loss. In the currency markets, Australian Dollar is the weakest one for today. Euro follows as...
RBA Minutes Upbeat, But Australian Dollar Weakens on Risk Aversion
Australian Dollar is under broad based selling pressure today. RBA minutes reiterated the non-urgency for any rate move. IMF report pointed out risks are tilted to the downside in Australia. But risk aversion is more likely the factor driving Aussie down. Major Asian indices are in deep red following...
Australia: Low Unemployment Rate Masks Underlying Problems in Job Market
RBA has sounded confident in the domestic growth outlook in both. On the job market, the members acknowledged the decline in unemployment rate and indicated the “notable” fall in youth unemployment. The central bank forecast that employment growth would be slightly above average in the period ahead, facilitated by...
Swiss Franc Surges While Commodity Currencies Weaken
Swiss Franc is clearly the strongest one for today but the underlying reason is not apparent. There is no clear problem in emerging markets. Meanwhile, Euro is indeed following Swiss Franc, as another strong one. Sterling is a bit mixed as there is no new developments regarding May's leadership...
Sterling Stabilizes as PM May Survived the Weekend, Dollar Recovers But Stays Soft
The forex markets are generally trading in tight range as the week starts. Yen, Dollar and Sterling are generally firmer. Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar are the weaker ones, together with Euro. But movements in the markets are very limited. Overall, the greenback stays relatively soft as markets...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bulls Outweighed Bears Amidst Thin Trading in USD
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended November 13, NET LENGTH in USD Index persisted despite little volume. All other major currencies stayed in NET SHORT positions. This came in line with the FX movement that the greenback strengthened against major currencies with...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bears Raised Bets on Oil
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended November 13, NET LENGTH for crude oil, heating oil and gasoline futures all declined sharply. Selloff in oil prices exacerbated during the reporting week, with the front-month WTI crude oil contract slumping -10.48% while the Brent contract...
Brexit, Italy and Trade War as Focuses in Holiday Shortened Week
Sterling was overwhelming the weakest one last week on Brexit political drama in the UK. It's now even uncertain for how long Prime Minister Theresa would stay in position, not to mention if there would be an agreement for orderly Brexit. Dollar followed as the second weakest after cautious...
Yen Gathers Stream For Rebound ahead of Close, Sterling Pares Losses
Yen and Sterling are the two strongest ones today, but what they're doing are very different. Yen is extending this week's rebound. But Sterling is paring back Brexit triggered losses. Meanwhile, commodity currencies turned generally weaker as they're paring some of recent gains. Overall, after a rather volatile week,...
Sterling Takes a Breather after PM May Pledged to Hold On, How Long Could It/Her Last?
Sterling recovers mildly today but remains the weakest one on political turmoil in the UK. There is no clear sign of a come back in the Pound and it remains vulnerable for more selloff, even before weekly close. The markets are rather quiet in Asian overall. Australia, New Zealand...
Surprising Increase in Crude Inventory Aggravates Weakness in Oil Prices
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products stocks dropped -1.41 mmb to 1252.02 mmb in the week ended November 9. Crude oil inventory jumped +10.27 mmb (consensus: +3.18 mmb) to 442 mmb. Inventories increased in 4 out of of...
UK in Political Turmoil as No Confidence Vote Waiting on the Line, Pound Tumbles Broadly
Sterling is sold off broadly today as Brexit optimism quickly turned into political turmoil. UK Prime Minister Theresa May appeared to have secured Cabinet support on her Brexit agreement with EU. But in less than 24 hours, four ministers resigned in protest, including the high profile figure in Brexit...
Sterling & Euro Firm on Brexit Progress, But Australian Dollar Steals the Show with Job Data
Both Sterling and Euro trade firmer after UK Prime Minister Theresa May got Cabinet support for her Brexit deal. But no significant technical development is seen with these two currencies yet. Instead, Australian Dollar steals the show with strong employment data. Additional support to Aussie was given by news...
Brexit Update – EU and UK Agree on Draft Deal, Still More Challenge Ahead
Brexit news again dominates the headline as UK Prime Minister Theresa May announced that she has gained support from the Cabinet the Withdrawal Deal hammered out between the UK and EU. End of the story? Not yet. If both the UK Cabinet and the EU approve the deal, the...
Sterling Turned Cautious as Markets Await May’s Brexit Cabinet Meeting
Sterling turned cautious as markets are now awaiting the result of UK Prime Minister Theresa May's Cabinet meeting on Brexit. The withdrawal agreement text should have been agreed with the EU. Approval by the Cabinet will give the green-light to EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier to declare that "decisive...
Sterling Firm, But Uncommitted, as Markets Await UK Cabinet Meeting on Brexit Agreement
Sterling is trading generally firm today as the EU and UK finally agreed on the withdrawal agreement. It will now have to go through Prime Minister Theresa May's Cabinet today. That shouldn't be too much a problem despite some open objection from Brexiteers. The main hurdle lies in the...
China’s October Data Encourage More Easing From Government
The latest set of macroeconomic data in China was mixed. Retail sales grew +8.6% y/y in October, weaker than consensus of, and September's +9.2%. Automobile sales, contributing 10% to retail sales, declined -11.7% in October, marking the first annual contraction in almost 3 decades. Alongside the personal tax reform,...