Yield Curve Inversion and Global Slowdown Hammered Stocks, Not US-China Trade Talks
It was another volatile week with multiple theme working on the markets. US-China trade truce, arrest of Chinese business executive, stock market routs, treasury yield free fall, US yield curve inversion, weak economic data and global slow down, OPEC+ production cut, UK Brexit parliament debate, Italy budget. All have...
Canadian Dollar Strikes Back on Stellar Job Data, Dollar Shrugs NFP Miss
Dollar spikes lower in early US session after non-farm payroll report showed lower than expected job and wage growth. That adds to argument that the momentum US job growth has peaked. Nevertheless, there is no follow through selling in the greenback seen. The only exception is USD/CAD with Canadian...
Sentiments Stabilized with DOW’s Late Rebound, Dollar Turns to Non-Farm Payrolls
Risk sentiments generally stabilized after the late rebound in US stocks overnight. DOW hit as low as 24242.22 but closed at 24947.67. Down just -0.32%. S&P 500 also hit as low as 2621.53 but closed at 2695.95, down only -0.15%. NASDAQ even reversed and closed up 0.42% at 7188.26....
Dollar Slightly Lower on Job Data Miss, But Risk Aversion Still the Main Theme.
Dollar softens mildly against European majors in early US session after weaker than expected job data. But risk aversion remains the overall theme of the market. Australian Dollar stays the weakest one, followed by Canadian and New Zealand Dollar. WTI crude oil is back at 51.2 as even though...
Australian Dollar Dives Again as Risk Aversion Intensifies on Chinese Tech Giant Huawei
Risk aversion intensifies in Asian session again. In particular, Hong Kong stocks lead the decline on news of arrest of Chinese tech giant Huawei's CFO Meng Wanzhou. The arrest is reported to be in relation to Huawei violating US sanctions by shipping US originated products to Iran and some...
Sterling Rebounds on Brexit Rethinks and Technical Support
Sterling stages a broad based rebound today despite poor PMI services data. The Pound is partly helped by technical support from GBP/USD (at 1.2661) and EUR/GBP (at 0.8939). Additionally, traders are probably reassessing Brexit scenarios. A tricky point is on what would Common's rejection of Prime Minister Theresa May's...
ECB Preview – Focus on Reinvestment Plan, New Round of TLTRO
The market is closely watching ECB’s policy after QE. At the upcoming meeting next week, ECB would announce its plan to reinvest the maturing bonds. Meanwhile, market speculations are rising that the central bank would soon announce a new round of its targeted long-term refinancing operations (TLTRO). Given recent...
Dollar Regains Ground as Investors Rush from Stocks to Bonds, Aussie Additionally Pressured by GDP Miss
The US stock markets closed sharply lower overnight while treasury yields also dived. Such patterns continue in Asia, seeing major indices pressured while JGB year yields also drop. There are clear flows out of stocks into bonds. Fed has already turned less hawkish with Chair Jerome Powell's turn last...
Dollar Broadly Lower as 10 Year Yield Breaks Below 3%
Dollar is under broad based selling pressure on falling treasury yields, globally. In particular, 10 year yield drops below 3% level for the first time since September. Canadian Dollar and Swiss Franc are following as the next weakest. On the other hand, return to risk aversion and falling global...
BOC Preview: Will Poloz Maintain Hawkish Stance?
Bank of Canada is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.75%, after a rate hike of +25 bps in October. Despite bets of another move this month, we believe policymakers would take a wait- and- see mode to assess the impact of the sharp fall of oil...
Yen Surges as Nikkei Tumbles and JGB Yield Falls
Yen jumps broadly today as Asian stocks weaken, moving past the positive catalyst of US-China trade truce quickly. Nikkei closed down -2.39%, more than enough to reverse Monday's 1.00% gain. Additionally, 10 year JGB yield is down is down -0.010 at 0.073, comparing to October's high at 0.162. There...
RBA More Concerned about Housing Markets, Disinflation Likely Keeps Policy Rate Unchanged for 2019
As widely expected, RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% for the 26th consecutive meeting. The accompanying statement contained little new information. Yet, it revealed that the members were dovish about the housing market. Meanwhile, disinflation in Australian economy should likely lead the central bank to keep its...
US-China Trade Ceasefire: Too Early to be Relieved
We remain cautious over the 90-day ceasefire on US- China trade dispute. Over the weekend, the US agrees to postpone raising tariff on US$200B worth of Chinese goods from 10% to 25%. In return, China would buy significant amount of US goods within agriculture, energy and industry products. Meanwhile,...
Sentiments Supported by Trade Truce, But Sterling Down on Renewed Brexit Worries
The global financial markets are blessed by strong risk appetite today, as US and China agreed on 90 days ceasefire on trade war. US stock futures point to sharply higher open, following strengthen and European and Asian markets. Australian Dollar, being a close trade partner of both the US...
US-China Trade War Ceasefire, Stocks and Aussie Surge, Dollar and Yen Weaken
US and China agreed not to escalate trade war after meeting between Trump and Xi. A cease-fire agreement was reached. Even though it's just for 90 days, Asian markets responded positively to the development with all major indices recording solid gains. DOW futures are also pointing to a day...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets for Higher Euro Fell Sharply as Confidence Data Soured
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended November 27, NET LENGTH in USD Index slipped slightly whilst bets increased on both sides. All other major currencies stayed in NET SHORT positions. During the week, the greenback strengthened against major currencies. Note that the...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets Trimmed on Oil and Petroleum, Traders Turned Cautious ahead of OPEC
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended November 27 NET LENGTH for crude oil and gasoline futures continued to fall. Speculative long positions of crude oil futures declined -17 170 contracts, while shorts gained +1 896 contracts, resulting in a fall in NET LENGTH,...
A Look at Market Pricing on Fed Rate Path after Powell’s U-Turn
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech last week was sort of a turning point. Stocks staged a strong rally and helped lifted Kiwi and Aussie as the strongest ones. Nevertheless, despite being sold off steeply, Dollar has indeed reversed much the the losses and ended as the third strongest one....
Euro Lower after Inflation Data, Dollar Pare Losses ahead of Trump-Xi Meeting
The forex markets are generally staying in familiar range as traders turn cautious ahead of G20 summit and, of course, the highly anticipated Trump-Xi summit. There are rumors flying around on whether there will be a deal of no deal. But it's no to productive to guess at this...
Dollar Recovers after FOMC Minutes, But Overall Markets in Consolidative Mode
Dollar is trying to recover again today, with rather weak momentum so far. FOMC minutes released overnight didn't prompt renewed selling in the greenback. Instead, traders are turning cautious ahead of the highly anticipated meeting between Trump and China Xi in Argentina. For now, Yen is the second strongest...