CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets Trimmed on Oil and Petroleum, Traders Turned Cautious ahead of OPEC
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended November 27 NET LENGTH for crude oil and gasoline futures continued to fall. Speculative long positions of crude oil futures declined -17 170 contracts, while shorts gained +1 896 contracts, resulting in a fall in NET LENGTH,...
A Look at Market Pricing on Fed Rate Path after Powell’s U-Turn
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech last week was sort of a turning point. Stocks staged a strong rally and helped lifted Kiwi and Aussie as the strongest ones. Nevertheless, despite being sold off steeply, Dollar has indeed reversed much the the losses and ended as the third strongest one....
Euro Lower after Inflation Data, Dollar Pare Losses ahead of Trump-Xi Meeting
The forex markets are generally staying in familiar range as traders turn cautious ahead of G20 summit and, of course, the highly anticipated Trump-Xi summit. There are rumors flying around on whether there will be a deal of no deal. But it's no to productive to guess at this...
Dollar Recovers after FOMC Minutes, But Overall Markets in Consolidative Mode
Dollar is trying to recover again today, with rather weak momentum so far. FOMC minutes released overnight didn't prompt renewed selling in the greenback. Instead, traders are turning cautious ahead of the highly anticipated meeting between Trump and China Xi in Argentina. For now, Yen is the second strongest...
FOMC Minutes Signals Rate Hike “Fairly Soon”, Policy Outlook Masked by Tariff and Debts
The FOMC minutes for the November revealed that the members still considered a rate hike in December is appropriate. Yet, they debated on the change in forward guidance regarding the pledge on “further gradual increases” in the policy rate. Some judged that the policy rate is near to the...
Dollar Rebound Attempt Capped by Weaker Core Inflation, Yen Gains ahead of G20
After yesterday selloff triggered by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Dollar turns mixed today. It did try to regain some grounds in early European session. But the attempt falters after weaker than expected inflation reading from the US. Focus will now turn to minutes of the November FOMC meeting. It's...
Dollar Tumbled on Fed Powell’s Awkward Dovish Turn, FOMC Minutes Now Awaited
Dollar tumbled steeply overnight on Fed chair Jerome Powell's awkward dovish turn. Within a matter of weeks, interests rate went from being "long way from" to "just below" neutral. Markets took that as a sign Fed is nearing a pause in the current hike cycle. DOW staged a decisive...
Fed Chair Powell’s U-Turn on Interest Rates?
Stock markets rallied after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Economic Club, New York. Market players were thrilled amid their interpretation that Powell has turned dovish, probably succumbed to Trump’s endless criticism. We do not see an abrupt turn on Powell’s stance.
What the market focused on was Powell’s...
Sterling Makes a Come Back, Dollar Awaits Fed Powell
The British Pound makes a strong come back today and is trading as the strongest one at the time of writing. UK government released its long term Brexit economic analysis, showing that Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal could bring as little as -0.1% drag in GDP in 15...
OPEC+: To Cut or Not to Cut?
Crude oil prices have steadied after the sharp correction over the past 7 weeks. Supporting the recovery are hopes of OPEC or OPEC+ production cut next month. OPEC and non-OPEC producer would meet in Vienna on December 6, discussing ways to defend oil prices. While the market generally expects...
Dollar Turns Mixed as Rally Attempt Lost Steam, Trump Attacks Fed Again
Dollar turned mixed after yesterday rally attempt met with no follow through commitments from bulls. Trump reiterated his attack on Fed and on Jay Powell personally. Comments from Fed officials were mixed. But the greenback paid little attention overall. Australian and New Zealand Dollar are again the strongest ones...
Sterling and Euro Turn Weaker, But Dollar Struggles to Extend Gain
Sterling and Euro are trading as the weaker ones today, in otherwise mixed markets. Dollar appeared to be lifted by Trump's renewed threats to China on tariffs. He said it's "highly unlikely" to drop the planned tariff hike on Jan 1 and more could come if no deal is...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Bets on USD, GBP, JPY and AUD on Rising Uncertainty
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended November 20, NET LENGTH in USD Index persisted although bets were trimmed on both sides. All other major currencies stayed in NET SHORT positions. This came in line with the FX movement that the greenback strengthened...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Commodities Shrank. Oil’s Outlook Dependent on OPEC
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended November 20 NET LENGTH for crude oil, heating oil and gasoline futures continued to fall. Speculative long positions of crude oil futures declined -32 596 contracts, while shorts slipped -18 585 contracts, resulting in a fall in...
USD/JPY Surges in Mixed Markets, Euro and Sterling Lost Momentum
The forex markets are in a rather mixed mode this week so far, except that clear strength is seen in USD/JPY. Euro's rebound yesterday was rather brief as Italy eventually decided to stick with its 2019 budget plan despite rumors of some adjustments. Sterling did get any sustainable boost...
Sentiments Lifted as Italy Shows Budget Flexibility, But No Follow Through Buying in Euro
Euro, Sterling, Australian and New Zealand Dollar are so far the stronger ones today. Euro is lifted by news that Italy is finally showing some flexibility to adjust it's 2019 budget deficit target. The development also send European stocks higher and Italian yield lower. Improvement in risk appetite helps...
Euro and Sterling Mixed after EU Approved Brexit Deal, Yen and Dollar Turn Softer
Australian Dollar leads commodity currencies mildly higher as week starts, following rebound in Asian markets. On the other hand, Yen, Dollar and Swiss Fran turn softer. Nevertheless, Chinese stock lack behind other hand Asian indices and struggle to gain. There's a risk of a turn in market sentiment later...
Brexit Update – The Remaining 1%, The Most Challenging
UK PM Theresa May demonstrates to us that her way to end dispute is compromise (to counterparty) and threat (to own people). After months of negotiation, the Withdrawal Agreement for Brexit was approval unanimously by EU member states on Sunday. The final draft has not addressed the concerns of...
Dollar Higher but Trump-Xi Meeting is a Wild Card
It's another week with multiple theme happening at the same time. Swiss Franc ended as the strongest on risk aversion. Oil's free fall could be that extra lift the the Franc. Dollar ended as the second strongest, but that's mainly due to relatively smaller problems in the US. Sterling...
Euro Down on Growth Worry, Canadian Follow Oil Lower
Yen rises broadly today as risk aversion is back. Chinese stocks dived sharply in otherwise quiet Asian session. The Shanghai SSE closed down -2.49% at 2579.48 has likely completed recent corrective rebound. European indices also reversed initial gain and are trading broadly lower at the time of writing. Weak...