Chinese Data Show Stabilization Sign, UK May’s Brexit Plan B Awaited
The financial markets are rather quiet today. Asian stocks trade higher despite data showing China's growth in 2018 slowed to lowest since 1990. But December data painted a picture of stabilization. Also, there is optimism on US-China trade talks, despite a lack of detail on the progress. Meanwhile, Yen,...
ECB Preview – ECB to Turn More Dovish as Economic Data Surprise to Downside
We expect ECB to turn more dovish at the meeting later this week, as economic data have pointed to further weakness. There are several issues worth watching for the meeting: rhetoric on economic outlook, instruments to alleviate tightening of credit conditions after the end of QE, and forward guidance...
Trade Optimism Lifted Stocks, Yields and Dollar
Brexit and US-China trade negotiation were the two major themes last week. After a week of drama, it's still unclear exactly what kind of Brexit deal would get through the Parliament. There's some anticipation for UK Prime Minister Theresa May on her plan B on Monday. Yet she could...
Canadian Dollar Jumps on CPI and Oil, Sterling Pares Gain after Weak Retail Sales
Canadian Dollar strengthens mildly in early US session and is trading as the strongest one for today so far. Recovery in oil price has been supporting the Loonie through the day. And, further lift is given by stronger than expected CPI reading. Euro is following as the second strongest,...
Sterling Extends Rally, Yen Lower on Risk Appetite, Dollar Follows Yields Higher
Yen trades generally lower in rather quiet markets today. Risk appetite strengthens mildly despite extended record run in US government shutdown. There were rumors that US is considering to roll back tariffs to facilitate trade negotiation with China. But that was quickly denied. Nevertheless, Fed's "patience" rhetorics continued which...
Sterling Enjoying Renewed Buying, But Traders Remain Cautious
Renewed buying emerges in early US session for Sterling and it's trading as the strongest for today so far. But for now, the Pound's strength is relatively limited against Yen and Dollar. Investors would need to know more about the Brexit plan B before committing. Yen is supported by...
PBOC’s Aggressive Liquidity Injection Reveals Severe Growth Slowdown
PBOC has aggressively increased market liquidity. In the form of reverse repo operations, the central bank announced Wednesday that a total of RMB 570B would be pumped to the market. With RMB 10B of previous reverse repo maturing, the net injection would be RMB 560B. While the central bank...
Sterling Stays Firm after May Won Confidence Vote, Euro and Swiss Franc Turning Softer
Sterling is staying as the strongest one for the week after UK Prime Minister Theresa May narrowed survived the confidence vote in Commons. Though, there is no follow through buying against Dollar. Upside momentum in the Pound is also relatively weak against Euro and Yen. Traders would probably stay...
US Crude Oil Inventory Fell More than Expected, While Production Climbed Higher
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks gained +5 mmb to 1260.4 mmb in the week ended January 11. Crude oil inventory fell -2.68 mmb to 437.06 mmb (consensus: -1.32 mmb). Inventories decreased in 3 out of...
Sterling Firm in Tight Range as Focus Turns to PM May’s No-Confidence Vote
The forex markets are rather quiet today. Sterling, US Dollar and Canadian Dollar are the stronger ones The Pound is supported by increasing chance of a delay in Brexit, or no Brexit at all. Canadian Dollar is lifted as WTI crude oil rebound and is back at 51.8. Meanwhile,...
Sterling Steady after May’s Humiliating Brexit Defeat, Euro Weakens on Slowdown Worries
The historic defeat of UK Prime Minister Theresa May over the Brexit deal triggered some volatility in the Pound. But no clear direction is seen in Sterling after all the moves. It's staying bounded in relatively tight range overall, with a bias for further rise. UK CPI is usually...
PM May’s Brexit Deal Rejected. What Next?
The UK Parliament rejected the Brexit deal (Withdrawal Agreement) proposed by PM Theresa May at 432 to 202 votes. The 230- vote margin marks the biggest defeat in the country’s political history. The government now has three days to work on a new plan, which has to be agreed...
Euro Weighed Down by Germany Slowdown Worries, Sterling Pares Gain ahead of Brexit Vote
European majors are trading notably lower today. Euro is weighed down by concerns over slowdown in Germany, which might already had a technical recession in Q3 and Q4 already. Sterling also pares back some gains again traders turn cautious, ahead of the Brexit meaningful vote. Commodity currencies are relatively...
FX 2019 – EUR’s Upside Limited by Growth Deceleration and Political Risks
GDP growth should have moderated in 4Q18 and would remain lukewarm 1H19. Although the Italian government eventually backed down in the budget plan, political risks in the region have not yet abated. European Parliament election scheduled in mid-May and ongoing uncertainty about Brexit would still cause the euro to...
Pound Strong ahead of Brexit Vote, Yen Soft as China Pledges Strong Start
Risk appetite stages a come back in Asian session today as China pledged to "strive for a good start" in 2019. With Asian markets having broad based gains, New Zealand Dollar is leading commodity currencies higher. On the other hand, Yen is back under pressure, followed by Swiss Franc....
Brexit and China Dominates Headlines, Yen Stays Strong
Brexit and China are the two main themes in the markets today. For now Yen is the strongest one so far followed by Swiss Franc. Risk aversion is triggered by terrible trade data from China which intensified worries over slow down. Both imports and expects contracted in the fastest...
Yen Broadly Higher on Risk Aversion after Ugly Chinese Trade Data
Yen strengthens broadly today as Asian stocks are weighed down by rather terrible Chinese trade balance data. Trade war with the US is hurting both exports and imports. But judging from the data alone, it's unsure who suffered more. Nevertheless, the situation could change in the months ahead as...
Brexit to Take the Spotlight from Fed, Trade War and US Government Shutdown
Risk sentiments continued to recover last week as Fed officials indicated they would be patient before making the next rate move. Positive developments of US-China trade talks also helped. One notable development was the rebound in US treasury yields as 10-year yield reclaimed 2.7 while 30-year yield is back...
Sterling Jumps on Brexit Delay Talks, Dollar Steady after CPI
Sterling surges broadly today on rumor that there will be delay in the Brexit date. Even though the government came out quickly denying intention for Article 50 extension, the Pound stays firm. As next Tuesday's Brexit meaningful vote looms, it's just getting less and less likely for the Brexit...
Dollar Stays Soft as Fed Powell and Clarida Called for Patience, But No Extended Selling
Dollar continues to trade as the weakest one for today and the week. The chorus of Fed's "patience" rhetoric continued overnight with the top two men in Chair Jerome Powell and Vice Chair Richard Clarida. But the marginal impact in the markets seem to be diminishing. Stocks were just...