Markets Hold Steady with Fed’s Rate Cut and 2025 Outlook in Focus
The forex and stock markets are holding steady today, with limited volatility as traders anticipate FOMC rate decision and updated economic projections. A 25bps rate cut, reducing the target range to 4.25–4.50%, is virtually certain. However, the market’s focus lies on the tone and guidance Fed delivers. Critical questions...
Dollar Awaits Fed Clarity on Easing, Sterling Shrugs Strong Inflation Data
Dollar has strengthened against commodity currencies this week but remains range-bound against Euro and Pound, as markets await Fed’s rate decision to gauge the next move. While a 25bps rate cut is fully expected in with no chance of deviation, the focus is on how hawkish Fed's messaging will...
Canadian Dollar Weakens on CPI; Dollar Firm After Retail Sales
Canadian Dollar trades broadly lower today while commodity currencies are generally soft. Canada's CPI report reinforced the outlook of stable inflation hovering around target. BOC has likely completed its aggressive rate-cutting phase and pauses in policy easing are anticipated at some meetings next year. Nonetheless, the direction remains clear:...
Sterling Holds Firm on Strong Wages Growth, GBP/CHF Upside Breakout
Sterling remains resilient, as supported by UK employment data indicating that wages remain robust. This development aligns with improved conditions in the UK’s services sector, as seen in yesterday’s PMI release, and suggests that underlying price pressures have not diminished despite growing pessimism tied to the Autumn Budget’s uncertainty....
Yen Under Pressure on BoJ Expectations; Bitcoin Soars on Trump’s Bold Crypto Vision
Yen weakened across the board today in an otherwise consolidative market , as traders increasingly anticipate that BoJ will hold steady on monetary policy at its upcoming this week. BoJ policymakers appear to see no urgency in extending the tightening cycle this month, preferring instead to wait for January’s...
Markets Start With Mild Risk-Off Mood, Central Bank Bonanza Continues
The forex market began the week on a subdued note, with mild risk-off sentiment setting the tone. China's latest economic data painted a bleak picture, with retail sales significantly underperforming expectations and fixed asset investment experiencing a deeper decline. While industrial production growth met forecasts, it failed to offset...
Inflation Pressures and Yield Surge Anchor Dollar as Top Performer
Dollar ended as the strongest performer last week, boosted by a surge in U.S. Treasury yields following persistent inflation data. Despite expectations of another 25bps rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, stubborn price pressures are likely to slow the pace of policy easing next year. Adding to the...
Euro Rebounds on ECB Gradualism, Sterling Struggles
The Euro rebounded broadly today, buoyed by reassurances from a number of ECB officials that the central bank remains committed to a gradual approach to policy easing. Yesterday's 25bps rate cut appears to have had solid consensus backing, with no indications that a more aggressive 50bps cut was even...
Sterling Drops on Surprise UK GDP Contraction, Dollar Strengthens
Sterling slumped broadly today after UK GDP unexpectedly contracted in October, missing forecasts of modest growth. This contraction underscores the challenges facing the UK economy, which has been grappling with persistent inflation and uncertainty following the Autumn Budget. The government’s recent pledge to transform the UK into the fastest-growing...
European Majors Struggle After SNB, ECB Cuts
European majors are broadly under pressure today, with Swiss Franc leading losses. SNB’s unexpected 50bps rate cut caught markets off guard, and its significantly downgraded inflation projections suggest more easing is on the table for 2025. Meanwhile, Euro managed to hold steady after ECB’s widely anticipated 25bps cut. ECB...
SNB and ECB to Cut, Aussie Rebounds on Job Data
Australian Dollar staged an impressive rebound today, driven by robust employment data that surprised markets and cast doubt on the likelihood of a February rate cut by RBA. The stronger-than-expected labor market performance challenges the dovish sentiment established earlier in the week when RBA softened its inflation vigilance stance.
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Dollar Steady Post-CPI as Yen Slips; Aussie Faces Key Jobs Test
Dollar showed minimal reaction, other than some initial jitters, to November’s US CPI data, holding steady within its range as the report largely aligned with expectations. Headline inflation edged up, while core inflation remained flat, refusing to trend lower. With no surprise, the data cleared the way for a...
Aussie Slumps on Yuan Depreciation Speculation; US CPI and BoC Loom
Australian Dollar continued its decline today as speculation mounted that China might allow Yuan to weaken in 2025 to counteract the economic impact of increased US trade tariffs under the incoming Trump administration. While no official announcement has been made, Beijing appears to ready to signal greater reliance on...
Euro Hits 2024 Low vs Sterling as ECB Dovish Expectations Build
Euro's selloff accelerated today, breaking to a new 2024 low against Sterling. The common currency also weakened notably against the Swiss Franc, even as it remained relatively steady against other peers. Market sentiment appears to be pricing in dovish guidance from ECB at its upcoming meeting, where a standard...
Aussie Falls on RBA Dovish Shift; China’s Stimulus Optimism Wanes
Australian Dollar dropped sharply in Asian session following a significant dovish turn in RBA's communication. After holding rates steady at 4.35%, the central bank signaled growing confidence that inflationary pressures are easing, marking a departure from its previously vigilant tone. While May remains the most likely timing for a...
Aussie and HSI Gains Ignited by China’s Policy Pledges Again
Commodity currencies found significant support today after China pledged to intensify its economic stimulus efforts, aiming to secure next year’s growth targets. Australian Dollar led the charge, followed by New Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar, as risk-sensitive assets reacted positively to the news. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s HSI surged, reflecting...
China’s Inflation Weakness and South Korea’s Political Chaos Weigh on Risk Sentiment
Dollar and Yen saw modest recoveries in Asian session, driven by the cautious tone in financial markets as traders positioned themselves ahead of a crucial week for economic data and central bank announcements. Risk sentiment was subdued, with equities weakening on concerns over weaker inflation data from China. Adding...
Trump Trade Roars Back, Dollar in Correction, Commodity Currencies Tumble
The resurgence of "Trump Trade" last week reignited optimism across financial markets, driving US stocks to fresh record highs and propelling Bitcoin past the critical 100k psychological level. Investors appeared largely unfazed by a slew of top-tier US economic data and the solidification of expectations for a 25bps Fed...
Dollar Slips Versus European Peers Post-NFP, Maintains Ground Against Others
Dollar came under pressure against European currencies following release of US non-farm payroll report, despite the data being robust overall. In contrast, the greenback held firm against Yen and Aussie, while advancing against Loonie, with the latter pressured by surprisingly large increase in Canada’s unemployment rate, signaling sharp loosening...
Dollar Finds Support as Traders Turn to NFP for January Fed Guidance
Dollar steadied after yesterday’s selloff, recovering slightly as markets braced for the non-farm payroll report. Traders appear increasingly confident about a December rate cut, shifting the focus of today’s employment data toward its implications for January's FOMC meeting. While the report may still trigger some market volatility, many participants...