Dollar Weakens on Core Inflation Relief, But Bullish Bias Holds
Dollar extended its near-term pullback in early trading after core inflation data for December came in slightly below expectations, offering a degree of relief to traders and investors. Treasury yields also retreated, with the 10-year yield falling back below the 4.7% mark.
Core CPI rose by 3.2% yoy, down from...
Yen Gains BoJ Hike Speculations, Sterling Steady after Inflation Data, Dollar Awaits CPI
Yen's recovery gained some momentum today on as speculation over an imminent BoJ rate hike. Governor Kazuo Ueda reinforced Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino’s earlier comments, suggesting that next week’s policy meeting could bring a shift in monetary policy. The unified tone from BoJ’s leadership is seen a calculated effort...
Greenback Holds Ground After Slight PPI Miss, Sterling Weakens Again as Gilt Yields Eye 5%
Dollar is holding steady against its peers in early U.S. trading, with softer-than-expected PPI report failing to trigger significant selling pressure. Market sentiment continues to shift toward the possibility that the Fed might refrain from additional rate cuts in 2025. Fed funds futures are currently pricing in less than...
Tariff Rumors Shake Markets Again, Dollar Retreats Ahead of PPI
Speculation surrounding the incoming US administration's tariff strategy continues to rattle global markets. Reports suggest that President-elect Donald Trump’s economic team is exploring a phased approach to tariffs, gradually increasing rates by 2% to 5% per month. This tactic, if adopted, would utilize executive powers under the International Emergency...
Sterling Slumps Further as UK Bond Yields Hit Multi-Decade Highs
Sterling's selloff continues today as UK government bond yields surged to new highs, underlining deep market concerns over the nation’s fiscal outlook. 10-year Gilt yield breached 4.8%, a level not seen in 17 years, while 30-year yield climbed past 5.4%, marking its highest point in 27 years.
At the core...
Sterling Slides Further as UK Fiscal Concerns Persist, UK-China Trade Efforts Fail to Reassure Markets
Sterling extended its losses at the start of the week as deepening concerns over the UK’s fiscal situation continued to dominate market sentiment. Yields on 10-year UK Gilts surged above 4.88%, inching closer to the psychologically significant 5% mark. Market participants remain skeptical about the government’s fiscal discipline, despite...
Dollar Gains Momentum as Fed Cuts Come Into Question
The US markets last week were shaped by two dominant themes: uncertainty surrounding trade policies of the incoming US administration and the impact of robust US economic data. Initial market confusion, driven by ambiguous signals regarding tariffs, created significant volatility. However, this indecisiveness gave way to clarity as strong...
Strong NFP Boosts Dollar Amid Rising Bets on Extended Fed Pause
Dollar is charging higher in early US session, buoyed by a strong set of employment data. Non-farm payrolls surged well above expectations in December, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked lower. This set of data solidified the market's belief that Fed will pause rate cuts at its upcoming meeting...
NFP Set to Boost Dollar, But Trump Inauguration Risks May Limit Sustained Gains
Dollar holds onto its leadership position as markets await the US non-farm payroll report. Investors expect the data to reinforce Fed’s decision to pause rate cuts this month, particularly if the report confirms continued labor market strength. In such a scenario, rising US Treasury yields could further bolster the...
NFP to anchor Fed pause, 10-year yield eyes higher level
US non-farm payroll report is taking center stage today as markets look for confirmation of Fed’s anticipated decision to pause rate cuts this month. Recent comments from multiple Fed officials have highlighted a cautious approach to further monetary easing, with a consensus forming that the central bank is nearing...
Yen Outperforms as Investors Turn Defensive, Sterling’s Downward Spiral Persists
While Sterling continues to be the market's primary focus as it faces heavy losses, Japanese Yen is quietly staging a modest, but broad-based recovery. However, Yen’s rally appears driven more by position adjustments ahead of tomorrow’s US non-farm payrolls report, as risk sentiment has across markets has turned more...
Sterling Tumbles Amid UK Bond Selloff, Dollar Backed by Resilient Data
Sterling plunged across the board as the sharp selloff in UK government bonds sent shockwaves through financial markets. Yields on 10-year gilts surged to their highest levels since August 2008, while 30-year yields reached a 26-year high. These developments have reignited concerns about the UK’s fiscal health and are...
Dollar Soars and Yields Spike Fuels on Talk of Trump’s Emergency Tariffs
Volatility soared across markets today as reports of emergency trade measures by President-elect Donald Trump overshadowed the day’s economic data. According to CNN, which cited four unnamed sources, Trump is weighing the option of declaring a national economic emergency to justify widespread tariffs on all trade partners, including allies...
Dollar Regains Ground Ahead of FOMC Minutes, Aussie Weakens on RBA Cut Prospects
Dollar regained some traction overnight, supported by strong services sector data that bolstered expectations for Fed to hold interest rates steady this month. Fed fund futures now imply a 95% probability of no rate cut in January, up from 90% last week. The upbeat economic performance placed moderate downward...
Swiss Franc Under Pressure as Deflation Risks Spur Speculation of Aggressive SNB Easing
Swiss Franc weakened across the board today after inflation data revealed a reversal in annual CPI back 0.6% in December. This marks the fourth consecutive month of deflationary pressure, as monthly CPI continues to slide. With inflation well below 1% for the past four months, concerns over a return...
Dollar Struggles on Trade Policy Ambiguity, Yen on Watch as USD/JPY Approaches 160
Dollar remains under some pressure as markets digest conflicting signals about the trade policy direction of the incoming Trump administration. President-elect Donald Trump dismissed media reports suggesting a sector-specific tariff plan as "fake news" but provided no further clarification. The lack of concrete details leaves markets grappling with uncertainty,...
Dollar Falls as Trump Considers Sector-Specific Tariffs Over Blanket Approach
Dollar weakened significantly, while stock futures rebounded, amid reports suggesting that the incoming Trump administration may scale back its plans for sweeping tariffs. According to The Washington Post, discussions among President-elect Donald Trump’s aides now lean toward imposing tariffs only on critical sectors tied to national or economic security,...
Yen Weakens Despite Risk-Off Sentiment,Jobs and Inflation Data to Drive Markets Ahead
Yen struggles today even as risk aversion set the tone across Asian markets. Nikkei extended its retreat after briefly breaching 40k psychological level last week, as the rally proved unsustainable for investors. Adding to Yen's woes, December PMI Services data highlighted only marginal growth, failing to provide a meaningful...
Dollar Starts Strong vs Europe, Sets Sights on Yen and Commodity Currencies Next
Dollar Index started the new year with a pronounced surge. Sterling, Euro, and Swiss Franc bore the brunt of this strength, reflecting the sluggish economic outlook in Europe and ongoing concerns about the impact of new US tariffs. Despite these gains, Dollar's performance against other currencies, including Yen and...
Manufacturing Stabilization Supports Dollar, European Struggle Continues
Dollar strengthened modestly following the latest ISM Manufacturing PMI, which indicated some stabilization in the US manufacturing sector toward the end of 2024. Despite the improvement, the sector continues to face challenges, with half of its industries still contracting.
The ISM report did little to shift expectations that Fed will...