US-China Trade Talks to Continue Next Week, Sentiments Lifted
Risk appetite seems to be given a lift again by words regarding US-China trade negotiations. There seems to be some consensuses and progress made even thought it's unsure what they exactly are. Nevertheless, at least, trade talks will resume next week in Washington, which is a positive sign. Yen...
Yen Strikes Back and Investors Dissatisfied With Lack of Trade Talk Progress
Yen is making a strong come back today and surges broadly. Investors are clearly unhappy with the lack of concrete progress with US-China trade negotiations. Sterling follows as the second strongest but it's just recovering some of this week's losses. Never-ending Brexit uncertainty is weighing on the Pound. Dollar...
China’s Inflation Weakened Sharply. Trade Improvement Masked by Seasonal Factor
Headline CPI eased to +1.7% y/y in January, missing consensus of and December’s +1.9%. The slowdown was mainly driven by food price which fell -0.6 percentage point to +1.9%. Non-food inflation steadied at +1.7%. PPI decelerated sharply to +0.1% y/y, from +0.9% a month ago. The market had already...
Dollar Dives as Retail Sales Dropped Most in 9-Years, But GBP and CAD Even Worse
Dollar suffers steep selloff in early US session after shockingly poor retail sales data. The release of December's sales was delayed due to government shutdown. And we've finally got some clues on how bad the US economy performed on double whammy on shutdown and trade war. Nevertheless, for now,...
BOJ Tapers? It’s Only Yield Curve Control Adjustment. Fragile Growth Outlook Despite Rebound in 4Q18
BOJ’s asset purchase activities have again caught market attention. Talks of tapering heightened last week as the central bank offered to buy 180B yen of 10- to 25-year JGBS. Concerns over a less accommodative monetary environment eased as the central bank offered to buy 430B yen of 5- to...
Japan & Germany Avoided Recession, Trade Talk Optimism, Yen Pressured
Australian and New Zealand Dollar are the strongest ones for today so far as the forex markets seem to be cheering positive developments in US-China trade negotiations. The idea of 60-day extension to trade truce is certainly welcomed given the complexity in the deal, in particular enforcement. Data from...
US Inventory Rose More than Expected. Yet, Crude Oil Price Strengthened on US-China Trade Hopes
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks jumped +6.53 mmb to 1265.51 mmb in the week ended February 8. Crude oil inventory added +3.63 mmb to 450.84 mmb (consensus: +2.67 mmb). Inventories increased in 3 out...
Dollar Trying to Rebound on CPI, Risk Appetite Continues
Strong risk appetite remains the main theme for today on trade optimism. Though, Dollar is trying to steal the show in early US session with stronger than expected inflation data. For now, Yen remains the weakest one for today. Euro follows as weighed down by poor industrial production data,...
Yen & Dollar Tumbles on US-China Trade Optimism, Kiwi Surges on RBNZ
Strong risk appetite dominates the financial markets today. Investors are getting more optimistic on US-China trade negotiations, with another round of talks happening in Beijing now. Both sides seem to express more desire to make a deal. Trump hinted that he's willing to let the March 1 trade truce...
NZD Jumped although RBNZ Postponed Timing of Rate Hike (At Least Not Expecting a Cut)
Kiwi rallied although RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 1.75% as anticipated. The central bank did turn slightly more dovish than in November but the market had expected more. The central bank indicated that “the tailwinds to growth have eased” while “trading-partner growth is starting to slow”. It also...
Risk Appetite Extends, Swiss Franc Decline Accelerates
Swiss Franc is overwhelmingly the weakest one today with fresh selling in early US session. While Japanese Yen is also weak, it's a relatively distant second. Both are pressured by extended rebound in global stocks. Meanwhile, additional pressure is seen on Franc from strong rebound in oil prices and...
Dollar Paring Gains, Focus Turns Back from Government Shutdown to Trade Talks
Dollar is paring some gains today after yesterday's rally, but remains the strongest one for the week. A temporary agreement was reached in the US Congress to avert another government shut down. Focus is turning back to trade negotiation with China in Beijing. There is little news regarding the...
Dollar Surges Against Yen and Swiss as US-China Trade Talks Resume
Yen and Swiss Franc are trading broadly lower today thanks to rebound in global equities. Fresh selling is seen on news that White House senior counselor Kellyanne Conway said Trump may still meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in the near future. And she said that it looks like US...
Sterling Soft as GDP, Productions and Trade Balance Awaited
Sterling is trading generally soft today, except versus Yen, as market focus turns to UK data. GDP, productions and trade balance will be featured. BoE just downgraded both growth and inflation forecasts last week, based on assumption on smooth Brexit. The Pound would be vulnerable to another round of...
Sanction on Venezuelan Exports Poses Little Impact on Oil Prices
Oil prices have got limited boost after the US imposed sanctions on Venezuela’s oil exports. The direction of oil price movement is ultimately driven by the expectations of demand and supply balance. Oil demand is anticipated to reduce for the years ago amidst global economic slowdown, which is intensified...
Dollar Emerged as Strongest in a Bad Batch on Global Slowdown Worries
Dollar ended last week as the strongest ones, mainly due to weakness elsewhere. Worries of global slowdown, or even recession, sent Germany and Japanese stocks sharply lower. Global treasury yields also tumbled on safe haven demand. Adding to that, renewed concern over re-escalation of US-China trade war also weighed...
Canadian Dollar Jumps on Job Data, Risk Aversion Dominates on Trade War Worries
Risk aversion is the main theme in the financial markets today. Worries over US-China trade tension escalation resurfaced after Trump said he will not meeting Chinese President Xi this month. This came despite Trump's schedule to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un on February 27-28 in Vietnam, just next...
RBNZ Preview – Turning More Dovish while Affirming Next Move Can be Up or Down
We expect RBNZ, at next week’s meeting, to leave the OCR unchanged at 1.75% and downgrade its economic growth forecasts. We believe the tone would be tilted to the dovish side as both global and domestic environment deteriorated since November. Increased downside risks and heightened uncertainty likely warrant a...
Yen Rises as Trade War Concern Resurfaces, RBA Hammers Aussie Again
Global markets are in mild risk averse mode on concerns over US-China trade talk. That came after Trump said he will not meet Chinese President Xi this month to complete the trade agreement. Yen and Swiss Franc are trading as the stronger ones, as lifted by falling treasury yields...
BOE Downgrades Growth and Inflation Forecasts, Expects Fewer Tightening Despite Retaining Forward Guidance
BOE joined other central banks in downgrading the economic growth outlook. In addition to heightened risks of global growth slowdown, ongoing Brexit uncertainty is the key concern for the members. The members voted unanimously to keep the Bank rate at 0.75% and the asset purchase program at 435B pound....