Dollar Stays Firm ahead of Fed Powell’s Testimony, UK GDP & BoC Watched Too
Dollar remains the strongest one for the week even though upside momentum is diminishing today. The single most important factor for Dollar's next move is whether Fed would cut interest rate at this month's meeting. A 50bps cut is basically priced out by the markets, but futures still indicate...
Dollar Stays Firm as Fed Powell Offers No Rate Clue Yet, Sterling Weak
Dollar, Swiss Franc and Yen remain the strongest ones for today. Risk aversion mode was turned on in European session and is carried forward to US session. Investors are turning cautious as expectation for Fed rate cut this month is being adjusted. Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn't comment on...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bulls Outweighs Bears in Canadian Dollar’s Outlook
For that first time since March 2018, CAD futures recorded NET LENGTH of 6 293 contracts, as suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended July 2. Recent bullish sentiment about the loonie has been driven by policy divergence. While the Fed is widely expected...
CFTC Commitments of Traders -Traders Bet Higher Crude Oil Price ahead of OPEC+ Meeting. Net Length Likely Drops in the Coming Week
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended July 2, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures rose +14 007 contracts to 392 810 for the week. Speculative long positions jumped +16 239 contracts and shorts added +2 232 contracts. Crude oil prices continued recently ahead...
Australian Dollar Softer on Weak Business Confidence and Chinese Stocks
Following mild pull back in US equities overnight, Asian markets are mixed. Though, apparent weakness in China and Hong Kong stocks are dragging down Australian Dollar, which is the weakest one for today so far. Sterling is the next weakest as data showed retail sales suffered the worst June...
Euro Lower on Deteriorated Eurozone Investor Confidence
Euro trades broadly lower today as investor confidence deteriorated further despite slightly easing US-China trade tensions. German 10-year yield also weakens again following weaker investor sentiments, as German lender Deutsche Bank AG started its most aggressive restructuring and layoff. Sterling and Yen are also among the weakest ones. On...
Dollar Paring Gains as Focus Turns to Fed Powell’s Testimony and FOMC Minutes
Asian markets tumble broadly, partly as reactions to Japan's export controls on certain Korean semiconductor materials. Also, the weakness is partly due to adjustment in expectations on Fed's rate cut this month, after Friday's solid US job data. Though, the currency markets are steadily mixed. Yen is one of...
BOC Preview – Not Following Fed’s Footstep
BOC is expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% this week, and for the rest of the year. Data flow since the last meeting has remained resilient, offering the central bank more room to take a wait and see mode and assess the economic developments. We believe...
Markets Still Believe in a July Fed Cut, But Powell Has the Last Chance to Correct It
Major global treasury yield tumbled sharply last week on expectations of policy easing by central banks. In particular, ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn issued panic call for further monetary stimulus "now". German 10-year bund yield hit as low as -0.407, below ECB's -0.40% deposit rate. UK 10-year gilt...
Dollar Rebounds as Strong NFP Puts Fed Cut into Question
Dollar rebound strongly today after much better than expected job data. 10-year yield also jumps sharply and is currently up 0.083 at 2.022, back above 2% level. DOW futures, on the other hand, tumble notably. Analysts reactions regarding to the data are divided. Some are more aligned with fed...
Dollar Recovers Mildly as NFP Awaited, Could It Deter Fed’s Cut?
Dollar recovers mildly today as US markets will be back from holiday. But understandably, upside momentum is rather weak so far as the crucial non-farm payroll report is awaited. Overall trading is mixed this week, as some technical level are not firmly take out, even breached. For example, Gold...
German 10-Yr Yield Hits Record Low on ECB Easing Expectations
Trading in the currency markets are relatively subdued today as US is on holiday. Major volatility is seen in the bond markets, as German 10-year yield hits another record low. Expectations on ECB easing continues to intensify, with an official explicitly calling for action now. Swiss Franc is currently...
Market Quiet in Holiday Mood, Aussie and Canadian Firm
The forex markets are generally steady in Asian session today. Trading is rather subdued with US markets on holiday. But volatility will definitely come back with job data tomorrow. For the week, Canadian Dollar is currently the strongest one but USD/CAD is still struggling take out last week's firmly....
US Crude Oil Inventory Continued To Drop
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks increased +2.47 mmb to 1307.35 mmb in the week ended June 27. Crude oil inventory fell -1.09 mmb to 468.49 mmb (consensus: -2.96 mmb). Inventories rose in 4 out...
Free Fall in Yields Continue, Dollar Softer as ADP Jobs Missed Expectations
Free fall in major treasury yields remain the main focus in the markets today. German 10-year bund yield hit another record low at -0.397 and is now back at -0.378, down -0.013. It closed at -0.324 last week. UK 10-year gilt yield also dropped to as low as 0.67...
Yen Surges on Falling Yields Again, Ready to Resume Up Trend
Yen surges broadly again today as major global treasury yield resumed recent free fall. US 10-year yield down -0.058 to 1.976 overnight and it's now trading further lower to 1.947. German 10-year bund yield opens lower and is down -0.025 at -0.390, continuing to make new record low. Japan...
Slump in Crude Oil Price after OPEC+ Announcement Signals More Cuts Needed to Correct Imbalance
OPEC+ agreed to extend production cuts of -1.2M bpd 9 months to March 31, 2020. The extension came in longer than market expectations of 6 months, when the group meets to renegotiate further extension in December 2019. Another surprise was the price actions of crude oil. Both benchmarks -...
Aussie Talked Up by RBA Lowe after Rate Cut, Yen Rises as German Yield Hits Record Low
Australian Dollar is trading as the strongest one for today in spite of RBA's second consecutive rate cut. Additionally buying is seen after RBA Governor Philip Lowe talked about four positive developments that could help the economy in a speech. Though, the Aussie is held in range against Dollar...
RBA Lowers Policy Rate to Fresh Record Low of 1%
As widely anticipated, RBA lowered the cash rate for a second consecutive month today. After the -25 bps cut, the policy rate has reached a fresh record low of 1.00%. At the concluding statement, it pledged to adjust the monetary policy if needed”.
On recent economic developments, RBA acknowledged that...
Australian Dollar Recovering Despite RBA Rate Cut, Dollar Maintains Gain
Dollar's rally extended overnight, following record close in S&P 500 and mild recovery in treasury yields. The greenback is retreating some gains for now. But with near term resistance against European majors broken, further rebound is now mildly in favor. Though, Dollar will still need to survives tests from...