US-China Trade War Intensifies as China Retaliates
Financial markets are in turbulence as China announced to raise tariff of US$60B of US exports to 25% from 10%, effective June 1. This was followed by US’ threat to levy tariff on the remaining Chinese exports (worth of about US$ 300B) in as soon as summer. While China's...
China Announced Retaliations as Nobody Read Trump’s Threat Tweets
Rallies in Yen and Swiss Franc accelerate while selloffs in commodity currencies intensify on US-China trade war today. Trump "stepped up" his pressure on China and warned the latter not to retaliate. But it's actually unsure who he was talking to as it's a known that Twitter is blocked...
Risk Aversion Staying after US and China Admitted the Gulf of Differences in Trade
Markets are back in risk averse mode in Asian session, with heavy selloff see in Chinese stocks and Yuan. Some noted that the gulf between US and China in trade talks have widened since last week's development. But the "gulf" has always been there. The negotiations just reached a...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Bets (on Both Longs and Shorts) in Major Currencies as Trump Escalated Trade War with China
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended May 7, NET LENGTH in USD Index decreased -716 contracts to 28 233. Both speculative long and short positions fell during the week. All other major currencies stayed in NET SHORT positions.
Concerning European currencies, NET...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Bet Lower Energy Prices as Trade War Concerns Reignited
Trump's announcement of raising tariff of Chinese imports to 25%, from 10%, has renewed concerns over the US-China trade war, and its impacts on global economic outlook. The uncertainty has dampened energy prices. According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended May 7, NET LENGTH...
US-China Trade War Escalated, No End in Sight as Principle Differences Remain
US-China trade war was the center of global focus last week. Markets were expecting a deal with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He visited Washington Instead Trump announced to escalate to full-blown level after China reneged on its commitments during the negotiations. Trump's decision was understandable even though it may...
Canadian Dollar Surges on Strong Job Data, Markets Shrug New Tariffs
A new round of US tariffs on Chinese imports took effect today and market reactions are rather muted. Trump stepped up his hard-line rhetorics and tweeted he's in no rush to make a trade deal. Yet investors shrug off such comments. Sterling also paid little attention to UK GDP...
Markets Steady as New Tariffs on China Take Effect, No Apparent Progress in US-China Negotiations
The financial markets are relatively steady today as new round of US-China trade war formally starts. Asian index are just mixed, with gains even seen in Hong Kong and Chinese stocks. In the currency markets, Dollar is currently trading as the weakest for today, followed by Sterling, and New...
Expecting Limited Price Impact of Trump’s Sanctions on Iran Metal Sector
One year after US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, Donald Trump has signed an executive order to impose sanction on Iran’s base metal sector. The sanction covers iron, steel, aluminum and copper. While the move might further cripple the Middle East country’s economic growth, its impact on the...
New “Season” of US-China Trade War to Start Soon, Sentiments Weak
Risk aversion Dominates the market today as the world awaits a new "season" in US-China trade war drama. At this point, with Trump's hard line rhetoric, it's very doubt if Chinese Vice Premier Liu He could turn around the situation in his visit to Washington today. New rounds of...
Stocks in Free Fall Again as Trump Vows Not to Back Down on Tariffs
Risk aversion took a breath overnight in the US. But selloff in stock markets intensified again after Trump condemned that China "broke the deal" and pledged "we won't back down" on tariffs. It's so far highly doubtful if Chinese Vice Premier Liu He could turn around the situation in...
Sterling Tumbles on Brexit Impasse Again, Yen Stays Strong
Sterling suffers steep selling today after the UK Government conceded that there will be no Brexit compromise with opposition Labour any time soon. Thus, UK is prepared to participate in European election on May 23. New Zealand Dollar pared back much of the post RBNZ rate cut spike losses....
Decline in Chinese Exports Signals Global Demand Slowdown. Renewed Trade War Forces PBOC to Ease Further
Disappointing trade data in China was mainly driven by the large contraction in exports. Instead of merely bilateral trade conflict between the US and China, the broadly based slowdown in exports to China's major trading partners indicates that global demand is weakening again. Donald Trump's threat of raising tariff...
New Zealand Dollar Tumbles on RBNZ Dovish Rate Cut, Yen Firm as Global Stocks Tumble on Trade War
Yen remains the strongest one for today, extending this week's rally on risk aversion. Following steep decline in the US, Asian markets open broadly lower and stay pressured. Threat of full-blown trade war continues to weigh on investors' sentiments. New round of tariffs on Chinese imports is ready to...
RBNZ Cut Policy Rate to 1.5%, Resuming Rate Cut for the First Time since 2016
For the first time since November 2016, RBNZ lowered the OCR, by +25 bps, to 1.5% in May. At the monetary policy statement, it indicated that “a lower OCR is necessary to support the outlook for employment and inflation consistent with its policy remit”. Some banks, including ANZ and...
Yen and Dollar Take Spotlights on Risk Aversion, Trade War Concerns Stay
Risk aversion remains the dominant theme in the global financial markets on trade war threats. In particular, German 10-year yield turns negative again on safe haven flows. Based on currently available information, the trigger for Trump's escalation was China's pull back on its commitments in the negotiation progress. And...
RBA Left Rate at 1.5%. Pledged to Monitor Job Market
RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% in May. Yet, the accompanying statement remained dovish, citing sharp deceleration in core inflation, decline in house price and subdued household consumption as key areas of concerns. On the monetary policy outlook, the members would monitor the employment situation closely, as...
The Show of US-China Trade Talks Will Go On Despite Tariff Threats
Markets sentiments stabilized as more information was revealed regarding escalation of US-China trade tensions. The Chinese delegation will still travel to the US, with Vice Premier Liu He remaining as the lead negotiator. While there are still a lot of uncertainties with tariffs threats on, there is a least...
Yen and Dollar Stand Tall on US-China Trade War Threat
Imminent threat of full blown US-China trade war is the dominant theme in the global financial markets today. Chinese stocks were hardest hit, down the most in more than three years. Other Asian markets were generally down while Japan continued to enjoy its ultra-long 10-day holiday. European markets are...
RBNZ Preview – Chance of Rate Cut Increases as Job Market and Inflation Disappoint
The market has priced in over 50% chance that the RBNZ would lower the OCR, by -25 bps, to 1.50% in May. Major economic indicators since the last meeting weakened. In particular, disappointing employment report and inflation in the first quarter appear to have increased the odds of a...