Yen and Franc Strong on Trade War, Dollar Mixed Despite Solid NFP
Swiss Franc and Yen continue to trade as the strongest ones for today on risk aversion, as US-China trade war escalates. Global equity markets are under heavy selling pressure, with DOW futures down around -100 pts. German 10-year yield hits another record low at -0.499 and stays soft. Dollar...
Yen Surges on Risk Aversion as US-China Trade War Escalates
Risk aversion dominates the markets as US-China trade war escalates again with Trump's new tariffs. In particular, 10-year yield dived through 2% handle with ease and determination, to close at 1.894, lowest since November 2016. In the currency markets, Yen and Swiss Franc overtake Dollar's position as the strongest...
Sterling Softens after BoE, Yen Surges Through Key Resistance
Sterling weakens broadly today and remains the worst performing one for the week. BoE rate decision provided little inspiration while growth forecasts are notably lowered in the Inflation Report. Euro is the second weakest one on expectation of ECB easing in September. On the other hand, Yen is currently...
Dollar Powered Up by Fed Powell, Broke Key Resistance Against Euro
Dollar was shot up overnight as Fed's rate cut was, overall, less dovish as expected. At least, Chair Jerome Powell clearly indicated that it's not the start of a lengthy easing cycle. The greenback remains firm in Asian session, together with Australia and New Zealand Dollar. The latter two...
US Oil Inventory Extends Recent Decline
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks sank -10.14 mmb to 1298.4 mmb in the week ended July 25. Crude oil inventory slumped -8.5 mmb to 436.55 mmb (consensus: -2.59 mmb). Inventories fell in ALL 5...
FOMC Review – Market Disappointed as Powell Described Rate Cut as “Mid-Cycle Adjustment”
Fed announced to lower the policy rate by -25 bps to 2-2.25% in July. US dollar jumped while Wall Street declined although the decision came in widely anticipated. The market was probably disappointed by the lack of commitment of future rate cuts. The members remained confident about the domestic...
Dollar Shrugs Solid ADP Report as Fed Awaited
Dollar continues to trade with a soft tone in early US session. Job data from US is slightly better than expected. US-China trade negotiations concluded in Shanghai without any concrete progress. But traders' minds remain on FOMC rate cut later today. For now, New Zealand Dollar is the weakest...
Dollar Weakens Mildly as Focus Turns to FOMC Rate Cut
Dollar trading generally lower today as markets await Fed's highly anticipated rate cut. Though, the greenback is just the second weakest. New Zealand Dollar is the worst performing one for today so far on deteriorating business confidence. Swiss Franc is the third weakest as markets turned mixed. Australian Dollar...
Dollar Mixed after Core PCE Inflation Miss, Aussie Tumbles on Risk Aversion
Sterling remains the overwhelmingly weakest one on no-deal Brexit concerns. New Prime Minister Boris Johnson is pushing EU to re-open Brexit negotiation. But there is no sign from EU on a position shift yet. Australian and New Zealand Dollars are the next weakest as markets turn into risk averse...
Sterling Selloff Continues as No-Deal Brexit Risks Intensify
Selloff in Sterling remains the focus in Asian session today, as markets are adding their best to no-deal Brexit. The currency markets are relatively quiet elsewhere. Canadian Dollar is currently the second weakest, then Euro. Yen and Swiss Franc are the strongest, with help by falling treasury yields. Dollar...
BOE Preview – Standing On Sideline and Sending More Neutral Bias
We expect BOE to leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.75% and keep the size of the asset purchase program at 435B pound. Heightened risk of no-deal Brexit, downside risks to economic outlook, market pricing of a rate cut later this year, and easing bias from the Fed and...
Sterling in Free Fall as Johnson’s Government Steps Up Hard Line Brexit Rhetorics
Sterling drops broadly today as the new government is starting step up their hard line rhetorics on Brexit. Australian and New Zealand Dollar are also weak as markets await US-China trade negotiations that start tomorrow. Expectations for the talks in Shanghai are so far rather low. Swiss Franc and...
Yen Higher as Markets Turn Cautious in a Week of Fed, BoJ, BoE and Important Data
Yen opens the week broadly higher, following mild risk aversion in Asian markets. Traders are turning cautious ahead of FOMC rate decision, a string of worldwide economic data, as well as resumption of US-China trade negotiations. Swiss Franc is the second strongest so far while Dollar is the third....
FOMC Preview – Expecting -25 bps Cut From a Divided Fed
We expect the Fed to announce a rate cut of -25 bps, bringing the Fed funds rate target to 2-2.25%, this week. Yet, this decision is unlikely unanimous. Although there has been voice suggesting a deeper cut is needed, we do not it will happen this month. The plan...
Fed Rate Cut Still Expected after Solid Data, But Dollar Could Rally Further After That
Dollar ended as the strongest one last week as boosted by solid economic data from the US. While markets are still pricing in full chance of a Fed rate cut this week, strong data argue against the chance of further easing after that. Euro and Canadian Dollar were the...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Raised Bets for Higher Precious Metal Prices
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended July 24, NET LENGTH for gold futures gained +5 749 contracts to 251 250. Speculative long positions rose +2 346 contracts, while shorts fell -3 403. For silver futures, speculative long positions rose +9 680 contracts while...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Gains in Long Bets Narrowly Outweighed Shorts ahead of Fed’s Rate Cut
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended July 24, NET LENGTH in USD Index gained +1 796 contracts to 29 128. Speculative long positions gained +5 766 contracts while short positions added +3 970 contracts during the week.
Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for...
Dollar Jumps on Strong Q2 GDP, Yet to Break Key Resistance
Dollar rises notably in early US session after stronger than expected US GDP data. The solid data rises further question on whether Fed would really cut interest rate next week. Even so, a -50bps cut is basically out of question. The greenback is followed by Yen and the Euro....
Japan- Korea Trade Tensions – Removal of Preferential Treatment to Korea Signals Trade Tension Should Escalate
As trade tensions between Japan and Korea evolve, the latest development is that Japan is preparing to remove Korea from its “white list”. Countries in the list can enjoy preferential treatment on trade with minimum retractions. The move marks escalation after Japan imposed control measures for exports of three...
Dollar Cautiously Firm As GDP Awaited, Euro Recovery Lost Steam
Dollar turns mixed in Asian session today but remains the strongest one for the week. Recent economic data from US, including yesterday's durable goods orders, have been solid, and raised some doubts on the need for Fed easing. Sterling is currently the second strongest for the week, followed by...