China’s Economic Data Prove Economy Slowing Down. PBOC Could Follow FOMC in Cutting Interest Rate
Despite the mixed headline readings, China's macroeconomic data in May were in line with our view that the country's economy continues to slow.
Growth in industrial production fell to 5% y/y, missing consensus of , and April's, 5.4%. IP growth in May marks the lowest growth since 2002. Moreover, this...
Dollar Rises Broadly on Retail Sales and Industrial Production
Dollar jumps broadly in early US session after solid gain in retail sales in May, with upward revision in April figures. Yen is following as the second strongest on risk aversion, followed by Canadian Dollar. Geopolitical tensions heightened after US blame Iran for attacks on oil tankers yesterday. New...
Geopolitical Tensions and Poor China Down Weigh on Sentiments, Gold Shines and Yen Jumps
The financial markets are generally weighed down by risk aversion. Geopolitical tensions heightened after US blamed Iran for involving in the oil tanker attacks near the entrance to the Persian Gulf on Thursday. But Iranian officials denied any involvement and reiterated calls for a regional dialogue. Adding to that...
SNB Maintained Pledge to Intervene FX Market if SNF Too Strong. Question is How to React if Fed and ECB Ease Further
In its quarterly meeting, SNB announced to leave the policy rate – the interest rate on sight deposits, unchanged at -0.75%. On a technical change, the central bank introduced a new benchmark – the SNB policy rate- in replacement of the 3-month LIBOR. The members acknowledged recent strength in...
Swiss Franc Lifted by Attacks on Oil Tankers, Shrugs SNB
Attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman is the biggest news in early US session. WTI oil price is up 3.5% and is back pressing 53 handle after dipping to 50.85 yesterday. The news is both supportive Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar, which are currently the...
Australian Dollar Dives as Job Data Gives Nod to More RBA Rate Cuts
Australian Dollar tumbles broadly today as weak employment data solidifies the case for more RBA rate cut ahead. The headline number might be strong but the details are generally weak. The Aussie is also generally pressured by mild risk aversion in Asian markets. For now, Dollar is following Aussie...
US Inventory Increased for Another Week as Economic Outlook Remains Hazy
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks rose another week, by +9.56 mmb to 1317.18 mmb in the week ended June 7. Crude oil inventory gained +2.21 mmb to 485.47 mmb (consensus: -0.48 mmb). Inventories rose...
Dollar Survives Slight US CPI Miss, But No Turnaround Yet
The forex markets are rather mixed today. Dollar suffered very brief selling after CPI miss. But the greenback quickly regains footing as the readings are not bad enough to push Fed for a cut. For now, Sterling is the strongest one for today, followed by Yen and then Dollar....
Aussie Lower on Deteriorating Consumer Sentiment, Risk Appetite Recedes Mildly
ommodity currencies trade broadly lower today as risk appetite lost momentum. Major US indices reversed earlier gains to close mildly lower. Asian stocks generally follow with the exception of Singapore. Aussie is also weighed down by deteriorating consumer sentiment. Swiss Franc and Yen gearing up some momentum but for...
Sterling Recovers on Wage Growth, Euro Shrugs Poor Investor Confidence
Sterling recovers broadly today as lifted by stronger than expected wage growth. A key BoE official also noted that interest rate might have to rise more quickly than market expected. Though, upside of the Pound is capped so far, by Brexit uncertainty and worries over slowdown if such uncertainty...
Closer Look at China’s Trade Data Reveals that Trade War is Eating Into Economy
The US-China trade war continues to evolve. The upcoming important event would be the G-20 summit on June 28 and 29. US' Donald Trump has recently noted that he expects to meet China's Xi Jinping, or would impose 25% tariff on the rest of US$300B Chinese exports. The latest...
Australian Dollar Pressured Despite Improvement in Risk Appetite
US stocks closed generally higher overnight even though the rally looks a bit stretched. Positive sentiments continue in Asian session today. Yen is naturally one of the weakest on risk appetite. But Australian and New Zealand Dollar are also among the weakest, continuing recent decoupling with risk markets. We'll...
Sterling Tumbles on GDP Contraction and Weak Manufacturing Outlook
Sterling trades broadly lower today after data showed unexpected GDP contraction in April. More importantly, the deterioration in manufacturing after Brexit stockpiling appeared to be much worse than expected. Other survey data indicated little recovery momentum in Q2 so far, which could be heading for a contraction. Meanwhile, Australian...
Dollar Recovers on US-Mexico Deal, Aussie Weighed Down by China Imports
Dollar recovers broadly today while stocks markets rebound. Threat of US-Mexico trade war vanished after Trump announced to suspend indefinitely the plan to impose tariffs on all Mexican imports. An agreement was made between the US and Mexico on migration issue. At this point, there is no confirmation of...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – USD to Weaken Further as Rate Cut Hopes Loom
The CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended June 4 shows bets for US dollar dropped on bog long and short sides. NET LENGTH in USD Index dropped -864 contracts to 26 234. Both speculative long and short positions decreased during the week. Traders continued to trim...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Energy Prices Weakened Further on Gloomy Global Outlook
Energy prices remained weak. We expect the bearish trend to carry on although OPEC+ would likely announce to extend output cut at the June 25 meeting. According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended June 4, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures slumped -38 770...
Dollar in Steep Decline… Before Trump Drops Mexico Tariffs
Dollar weakness was the main theme over the whole week. It started with worries over Trump's tariff threats to Mexico. Then Fed officials came out acknowledging the risks from Trump's tariff policies and signaled their openness to rate cuts should trade tensions worsen. Selling reached its peak after poor...
Dollar and Yield Tumble as Poor NFP Affirms Fed’s Rate Cut
Dollar tumbles sharply in early as poor non-farm payroll report affirms the case for Fed rate cut this year. The headline number of 75k is a big miss. Equally importantly, weaker than expected wage growth argues that inflation pressure could remain subdued ahead. The question now is on whether...
Dollar Recovers ahead of Job Data, But More Downside Still in Favor
Dollar recovers mildly today, continuing to stabilize from this week's selloff. The greenback is staying in range established earlier except versus Canadian. There is some optimism on the outcome of US-Mexico negotiations. Or at least, tariffs won't go up to the worst case of 25% down the road. Together...
ECB Not Dovish Enough – Low Rate to Stay until Mid-2020 and TLTRO Pricing Revealed.
We believe ECB’s more dovish tone in June is insufficient to stimulate the economy. As expected, ECB extended the timing that the historically- low interest would remain. It also released the pricing of the TLTRO-III. We were slightly disappointed that the interest rates offered was higher than those in...