China Watch – Tariff Exemption Further Evidenced Weakness in Underlying Economy
China announced that 16 types of US exports will be exempted from tariff. While this may be a gesture ahead of the October trade negotiation, we view this as a sign of further weakness in china’s economic outlook. Trade data surprised to the downside in August with both exports...
Euro Lower as Traders Prepare for ECB, Dollar Shrugs Trump’s Tweets
Euro weakens broadly today, in relatively quiet markets, as traders are probably adjusting their positions ahead of tomorrow's ECB rate decision. A new package of stimulus is widely expected. Yet, opinions on the exact composition of the package is divided. Meanwhile, steady market sentiments is keeping Yen and Swiss...
Sentiments Lifted as China Exempt Some Tariffs on US, Removes QFII Quota
Market sentiments are generally lifted in Asia, by China's announcement to exempt some US imports from tariffs, ahead of next month's meeting. Also, while symbolic, investors also cheer China's move to remove quota for foreign institutional investors on the capital market. Yen and Swiss Franc are under selling pressure...
Sterling Lifted Mildly by Job Data, Markets Steady Overall
The financial markets are generally steady today, with stock and bond markets bounded in tight range. Most major currency pairs and crosses are also staying inside yesterday's range. Swiss Franc is currently the firmer one, followed by Sterling is mildly firmer on solid employment data, but upside is capped....
Yen Lower as Yields Recover, Aussie Falls on Business Confidence
Yen weakens broadly today following recovery in major treasury yields, as a sign of stabilization in sentiments. Most notably, German 10-year yield closed above -0.6% at -0.585, while US 10-year yield closed above 1.6% at 1.622. Australian Dollar is currently the second weakest, after poor business condition and confidence...
ECB Preview – Awaiting New Easing Package
We expect ECB to deliver a easing package at this week’s meeting. Economic developments since the last meeting have remained steady. However, growth is limited and risk is skewed to the downside. The latest economic projections will show downgrades in both GDP growth and inflation outlook.
We expect the easing...
Sterling Extends Rally as GDP Data Suggests Receding Recession Risks
Sterling rises broadly today as recession risk recede after better than expected GDP data. While it's unsure whether growth could sustain, the Pound cheers the improved outlook anyway. At this point, Australian Dollar is second strongest, followed by New Zealand Dollar. On the other hand, Swiss Franc is the...
Sterling Mildly Lower in Quiet Trading, More Brexit Drama Ahead
Markets are generally quiet in a typical Monday. Sterling is trading generally lower. Prime Minister Boris Johnson's push for general election ahead of Brexit deadline will likely be voted down today. But it's reported that he's planning to block the parliament's attempts at enforcing Brexit extension. At this point,...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets for Higher Crude Oil Price Continued to Fall
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended September 3, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures fell -7 493 contracts to 384 157 for the week. Speculative long positions dropped -4 525 contracts and shorts gained +2 968 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Greenback Lacks Direction Ahead of FOMC Meeting
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended September 3, NET LENGTH in USD Index added +1 839 contracts to 31 336. Speculative long positions rose +6 308 contracts and short positions also added +4 469 contracts. Greenback becomes directionless ahead of the FOMC...
Risk Markets Surged on Receding Political and Trade Uncertainties
Risk aversion eased notably further last week as some of the imminent risks receded. New Italian government was sworn in as 5-Star Movement and bitter rival Democratic Party agreement to form a coalition. UK lawmakers passed a bill to force Prime Minister Boris Johnson to delay Brexit if no...
Dollar Lower on NFP Miss, Supported by Wage Growth
Dollar drops mildly in early US session after weaker than expected employment data. Yet, downside is limited as support by stronger than expected wage growth. At the time of writing, commodity currencies are the strongest one for today with help from China's RRR cut. Canadian Dollar is additionally supported...
Markets Remains Risk On as Focus Turns to Non-Farm Payrolls
The financial markets remain in risk on mode today. Yen, Swiss Franc and Dollar continue to feel tremendous selling pressure. Meanwhile, commodity currencies are generally the strongest. Euro and Sterling are mixed for now as it's still unsure where Brexit uncertainty is heading to. The common currency's rally attempt...
US Oil Inventory Fell Further, In Contrast with API’s Forecast
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks sank -4.95 mmb to 1299.1 mmb in the week ended August 30. Crude oil inventory declined -4.77 mmb to 422.98 mmb (consensus: -2.49 mmb). Inventories decreased in ALL 5...
Risk Appetite Strong on Trade, Brexit and Italy
Risk appetite is general strong today on rather positive news. Firstly, US and China both confirmed that trade negotiations are continuing and both teams are in preparing for a high-level face to face meeting in October. There is no specific date for the meeting yet. But with new tariffs...
Sentiments Lifted as US-China Trade Talk Will Resume Next Month, Yen Weakens
Asian markets are generally lifted by confirmation that US-China trade talk is going to resume next month. Commodity currencies gain most as led by Australian Dollar. Swiss Franc and Yen are pressured in risk seeking environment naturally. But Sterling also turns softer on overnight condition. It's getting much more...
BOC Sounds Less Dovish than Expected, as Housing Market and Wage Growth Improve
BOC left the policy rate unchanged at1.75%. Policymakers’ monetary policy stance was less dovish than previously anticipated. While showing more concerns about US-China trade war and downplaying GDP growth in the second quarter, the members described the current monetary policy as appropriate. They also appeared upbeat about the situation...
Yen Lower on Return of Risk Appetite, Sterling Support by Hope of No No-Deal Brexit
Yen drops broadly today, as stock markets rally on supposed easing tension in Hong Kong. After more than two months of continuing protests, Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam finally announced withdrawal of the controversial extradition bill today. HSI closed up 3.9% on rumors leading to the announcement while HK...
Brexit Update – MPs Move to Pass a Bill to Reject No Deal Brexit
The Brexit drama continues. The bill that allows MPs to take over the parliamentary business on September 4 was passed with a 328-301 vote. This has paved the way for debate on whether MPs reject a “no-deal” Brexit. This motion proposes that PM Boris Johnson would have to seek...
Australian Dollar Rebounds on GDP and Services, Sterling also Recovers
Australian Dollar rebounds notably today as GDP data met market expectations while services data showed improvement. Though, upside is capped so far as RBA is still on track to another rate cut later in the year. Sterling is the second strongest after lawmakers cleared a hurdle to block no-deal...