Sterling Surges as YouGov Poll Lifts Brexit Optimism
Sterling surges broadly today as YouGov predicts a Conservative Win in the upcoming UK election, which puts Brexit on the right track. The Pound also takes Euro slightly higher somewhat. On the other hand, Australian Dollar is generally weaker after poor capital expenditure data. Yen recovers mildly but stays...
US Oil Inventory Increased Across the Board
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks added +0.15 mmb to 1268.76 mmb in the week ended November 22 . Crude oil inventory added +1.57 mmb to 451.95 mmb (consensus: -0.42 mmb). Inventory gained in 3...
Dollar Lifted Mildly by Solid Durables, Euro and Swiss Soft
Dollar trades generally higher today as supported by better than expected economic data, in particular, durable goods orders. Though, Sterling is so far even stronger, as consolidations extend. On the other hand, Euro is the worst performing one, followed by Swiss Franc. For the week so far, the Pound...
Dollar Firms Up Mildly as Brief Consolidation Might Be Finished
Dollar firms up mildly in Asian session as this week's brief consolidation seems to be completed. Stocks were given another lift by trade hope overnight, with major indices extending record runs. Optimism somewhat continues in Asia but investors there seem to be relatively unconvinced. Kiwi is currently the second...
UK Election – Conservatives Majority May Lead to Smooth, but Hard, Brexit
With UK elections approaching in two weeks’ time (December 12), opinion polls suggest that both Conservatives and Labors have consolidated support. Poll of polls indicates that support for Tories have risen to 43% as of November 26. This marks an increase of 4 percentage points from 3 weeks ago....
Dollar Firm on Fed Comments, Capped by Trade Uncertainty
Dollar remains generally firm today but there is not follow through buying so far. Comments from Fed officials affirm that the mid-cycle adjustment in monetary policy has completed. But upside is capped by uncertainty over trade negotiations with China. Also, traders seem to be already in holiday mood ahead...
Trade Optimism Pushed US Stocks to New Records, But Asia Doesn’t Follow
Trade optimism pushed US stocks to new record highs overnight but markets are just mixed in Asia. While US and China held another trade phone calls, there is no clear sign of any breakthrough. In the currency markets, New Zealand Dollar is the strongest one today so far, lifted...
PBOC to Ease Monetary Policy Further Despite Strong Inflation
We expect China’s monetary policy will be more expansionary in coming months as the economy slows further. Struggling between boosting growth and curbing CPI acceleration, the authority has probably chosen the former. Meanwhile, PBOC is obliged to do more as fiscal stimulus remains modest.
PBOC has lowered interest rates three...
Dollar Rises on Trade Hope, Yen Back Under Pressure
Global equities strengthen mildly today on some trade optimism. China's announcement to tighten up intellectual property protection rules might boost the chance of finally an agreement with the US. Also, even the hawkish tabloid Global Times said they're close to a deal. In the currency markets, Yen trades broadly...
Dollar and Yen Retreat as Hong Kong Stocks Lead Asia Higher
Yen and Dollar trade mildly lower in Asian session today. Hong Kong stocks lead Asian markets higher, as the landslide pro-democracy victory in Sunday's election would give China more pressure to end the city's unrest. Meanwhile, New Zealand and Australian Dollars are trading higher on easing risk aversion. Sterling...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET SHORT in GBP Gained as Elections Approach
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended November 19. NET LENGTH in USD Index dropped -3 159 contracts to 24 625. Speculative long positions fell -2 408 contracts and short positions added +751 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures gained...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Bet for Higher Oil and Gold Prices
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended November 19, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures gained +5 378 contracts to 429 975 for the week. Speculative long positions gained +2 338 contracts while shorts dropped -3 040 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
Trump and Xi, Trade Deal and Hong Kong
Market sentiments turned generally more cautious last week on renewed uncertainties over US-China trade negotiations. Yen ended as the strongest one on weakness in stocks and treasury yields. New Zealand Dollar was the second strongest, extending prior week's rebound. Dollar was the third strongest helped by late buying. Meanwhile,...
Sterling Tumbles after Poor PMIs, Loonie Higher after Retail Sales
Sterling drops broadly today as poor PMIs suggest quarterly GDP contraction. Following the Pound, Swiss Franc is the second weakest for today, and then Dollar. On the other hand, commodity currencies are generally higher are sentiments recover mildly ahead of weekly close. The Loonie is also supported by slightly...
Forex Markets Await Eurozone PMIs and Canada Retail Sales for Guidance
Sentiments remain generally cautious in Asian session today. Major indices are mixed following slight weakness in US stocks overnight. The Pound failed to break through near term resistance against Dollar for the second time and retreated. Euro's rebound against Dollar also lost momentum. Canadian Dollar recovered after BoC Governor...
Sterling Regains Strength, Markets Unsure on US-China Trade Deal
The forex markets are rather mixed today even though stocks are generally in risk averse mode. Sterling regains some strength and takes Euro higher with it. Yet, there is no follow through buying through near term resistance against Dollar and Yen yet. Yen and Dollar turned mixed as markets...
Sentiments Weighed Down by US-China Uncertainties, Yen Higher
Commodity currencies are back under pressure as Asian markets tumble on uncertainties over US-China relations. It's unsure whether the phase-one trade deal could be completed in time to avert the December batch of new tariffs. The situation is further complicated by US passage on an Act to support Hong...
FOMC Minutes Revealed that Most Members Saw Current Rate Level as Appropriate
The FOMC minutes for the October meeting revealed that most members judged that the monetary easing was enough to support growth. However, they continued to see downside to the economic outlook.
In October, the members voted to cut the Fed funds rate by -25 bps to a range of 1.5-1.75%....
Dollar and Yen Rise on Concerns Over US-China Relations
Dollar and Yen are the two strongest ones today so far as investors are turning cautious regarding US-China relations. The so called phase-one trade was was supposed to be signed at the cancelled APEC summit in Chile last week. But there is no concrete news regarding the progress yet....
Sentiments Hurt as US-China Political Tensions Intensify Over Hong Kong
Yen and Swiss Franc are back in driving seats, together with Dollar. US stocks hit new record highs overnight reversed to closed lower. Asian markets follow and trade broadly lower. While there is no "concrete" good news regarding US-China trade deal, political tensions between the two super power intensified...