Markets in Holiday Mood, USD/CAD to Decide Next Direction
Australian and New Zealand Dollar strengthen mildly in Asia today. But markets remain quiet overall, very much in holiday mood. Dollar and Canada are the weaker ones. US President Donald Trump's tweet late Friday indicated that US-China trade deal is still on the right track. China also announced to...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Length on USD Index Futures Halved on Improved Risk Appetite
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended December 17. NET LENGTH in USD Index declined -10 565 contracts to 11 696. Speculative long positions fell -7 706 contracts and short positions gained +2 859 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets for Higher Oil Price Remained Though Momentum Eased
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended December 17. NET LENGTH for crude oil futures jumped +40 838 contracts to 536 377 for the week. Speculative long positions gained +34 897 contracts while shorts declined -5 941 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
Canadian Dollar Tumbles after Poor Retail Sales, Sterling Pares Losses
Canadian Dollar drops sharply in early US session after much weaker than expected retail sales data. Euro and Swiss Franc are also under some selling pressure. On the other hand, Sterling is paring some losses ahead of weekly close while Australian Dollar is generally firm. Over the week, Swiss...
Yen Trying to Rally as 10-Yr JGB Yield Turns Positive
The forex markets are relatively quiet today, with little reactions to the record run in US stock markets overnight. Yen is indeed to trying to rally risk appetite markets, drawing support from 10-year JGB yield which turns positive. Swiss Franc is generally firm as this week's rally is maintaining...
BOE Left Policy Rate Unchanged. Neutral Tone Maintained
At the last BOE meeting headed by Mark Carney, the members voted 7-2 to leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.75%. The members voted unanimously to maintain the purchase of government bonds at 435B pound and corporate bonds of 10B pound. The members maintained a neutral stance in the...
Yen Higher after Poor US Data, Sterling Tumbles after BoE
Yen is trading broadly higher today as buying rushes in after weaker than expected US economic data. Nevertheless US stocks open mildly higher while 10-year yield is also trading up. Australian Dollar is currently the second strongest for today, still feeling the support from employment data. On the other...
Aussie Rebounds on Strong Job Growth, Sterling Awaits BoE
Australian Dollar recovers broadly today on stronger than expected job data. Though, upside is limited so far as unemployment rate remains a long way from RBA's rate of full employment. New Zealand Dollar is also among the strongest following better than expected GDP growth. Sterling is mixed as focus...
Canadian Dollar Supported by CPI and Oil Price, European Majors Weak
Canadian Dollar is trading as the strongest one for today, as helped by resilience in oil price and solid consumer inflation data. Dollar is currently following closely as the second strongest. On the other hand, European majors are the weakest ones so far, including Swiss Franc. Though, while Sterling...
Dollar and Yen Mildly Higher, Sterling Weak ahead of CPI
Dollar and Yen trade mildly higher in Asian session as markets turned into mild risk avers mode. Sterling remains the weakest one on concern of another Brexit cliff-edge at the end of transition period. The Pound will face another test from UK inflation data today, before heading to BoE...
Trade Deal and Strong November Data will Not Derail PBOC’s Easing Bias
A number of good news has increased optimism over China. Following announcement of a Phase I trade deal with the US, the latest set of economic data surprised to the upside in November. However, we expect the bullishness will be short-lived. For the year ahead, the government will have...
Euro and Swiss Lifted by Pull Back in Sterling, Dollar Mixed
Sterling's pull back extends deeper today on renewed Brexit concern. Setting a hard deadline of December 2020 for trade negotiations UK and EU could create another Brexit cliff-edge. Meanwhile, Australian and New Zealand Dollars follow the Pound as next weakest, partly weighed down by risk aversion. On the other...
BOE Preview – Members might Set a Dovish Tone while Leaving Rate Unchanged
BOE will likely leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.75% this week. There will be no press conference or inflation report accompanying the meeting. However, it will be interesting to see if the members adjust its tone after UK elections. We expect the central bank to skew to the...
Sterling Extends Retreat on Johnson’s New Brexit Move, Aussie Soft on RBA
Trading in the forex markets continue to be relative quiet today. Sterling is mildly softer as consolidations continues. It's weighed down slightly by Boris Johnson's move to block transition period extension. Australian Dollar is the second weakest after RBA minutes affirm the chance of more easing. On the other...
RBA Hinted Further Easing in 1Q20
At the RBA minutes for the December meeting, policymakers affirmed that it was appropriate to leave the cash rate unchanged at 0.75%. While acknowledging stabilization in the economy, the members, however, noted that further easing would be possible. They pledged to reassess the economic development in February 2020 and...
Investors Shrug Poor Eurozone and UK Data, Risk Appetite Continues
Commodity currencies are general higher today, with the help from risk appetite in European markets, and US futures. Poor Eurozone and UK data are largely shrugged off by investors. Canadian Dollar is so far the strongest, additionally supported by mild strength in oil prices. On the other hand, Yen...
Risk Appetite Takes a Back Seat, Sterling to Face More Event Risks Ahead
Risk appetite is taking a back seat for now as investors are not too satisfied with the tiny tariff rollback in the US-China phase one trade deal. Better than expected economic data from China also provide little inspiration. Australian Dollar trades mildly lower in relatively quiet markets in Asia....
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Short of GBP Declined Sharply as Brexit Uncertainty Diminished
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended December 10. NET LENGTH in USD Index dropped -1 616 contracts to 22 261. Speculative long positions slipped -428 contracts and short positions addd +1 188 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures fell...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Improved Risk Appetite Lifted Bets on Oil Prices
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended December 10. NET LENGTH for crude oil futures jumped +67 504 contracts to 495 539 for the week. Speculative long positions gained +46 096 contracts while shorts declined -21 408 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
Dissatisfied With Tiny US-China Tariff Rollbacks, Risk Appetite Might Struggle to Push Forward
The markets were rocked by three key events last week, UK Election, US-China trade deal and FOMC rate decision. Sterling ended as the strongest one last week as boosted by the Conservative's landslide victory in UK election, removing a large of of Brexit uncertainty. Canadian Dollar followed crude oil...