UK Election – Conservatives Majority May Lead to Smooth, but Hard, Brexit
With UK elections approaching in two weeks’ time (December 12), opinion polls suggest that both Conservatives and Labors have consolidated support. Poll of polls indicates that support for Tories have risen to 43% as of November 26. This marks an increase of 4 percentage points from 3 weeks ago....
Dollar Firm on Fed Comments, Capped by Trade Uncertainty
Dollar remains generally firm today but there is not follow through buying so far. Comments from Fed officials affirm that the mid-cycle adjustment in monetary policy has completed. But upside is capped by uncertainty over trade negotiations with China. Also, traders seem to be already in holiday mood ahead...
Trade Optimism Pushed US Stocks to New Records, But Asia Doesn’t Follow
Trade optimism pushed US stocks to new record highs overnight but markets are just mixed in Asia. While US and China held another trade phone calls, there is no clear sign of any breakthrough. In the currency markets, New Zealand Dollar is the strongest one today so far, lifted...
PBOC to Ease Monetary Policy Further Despite Strong Inflation
We expect China’s monetary policy will be more expansionary in coming months as the economy slows further. Struggling between boosting growth and curbing CPI acceleration, the authority has probably chosen the former. Meanwhile, PBOC is obliged to do more as fiscal stimulus remains modest.
PBOC has lowered interest rates three...
Dollar Rises on Trade Hope, Yen Back Under Pressure
Global equities strengthen mildly today on some trade optimism. China's announcement to tighten up intellectual property protection rules might boost the chance of finally an agreement with the US. Also, even the hawkish tabloid Global Times said they're close to a deal. In the currency markets, Yen trades broadly...
Dollar and Yen Retreat as Hong Kong Stocks Lead Asia Higher
Yen and Dollar trade mildly lower in Asian session today. Hong Kong stocks lead Asian markets higher, as the landslide pro-democracy victory in Sunday's election would give China more pressure to end the city's unrest. Meanwhile, New Zealand and Australian Dollars are trading higher on easing risk aversion. Sterling...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET SHORT in GBP Gained as Elections Approach
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended November 19. NET LENGTH in USD Index dropped -3 159 contracts to 24 625. Speculative long positions fell -2 408 contracts and short positions added +751 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures gained...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Bet for Higher Oil and Gold Prices
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended November 19, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures gained +5 378 contracts to 429 975 for the week. Speculative long positions gained +2 338 contracts while shorts dropped -3 040 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
Trump and Xi, Trade Deal and Hong Kong
Market sentiments turned generally more cautious last week on renewed uncertainties over US-China trade negotiations. Yen ended as the strongest one on weakness in stocks and treasury yields. New Zealand Dollar was the second strongest, extending prior week's rebound. Dollar was the third strongest helped by late buying. Meanwhile,...
Sterling Tumbles after Poor PMIs, Loonie Higher after Retail Sales
Sterling drops broadly today as poor PMIs suggest quarterly GDP contraction. Following the Pound, Swiss Franc is the second weakest for today, and then Dollar. On the other hand, commodity currencies are generally higher are sentiments recover mildly ahead of weekly close. The Loonie is also supported by slightly...
Forex Markets Await Eurozone PMIs and Canada Retail Sales for Guidance
Sentiments remain generally cautious in Asian session today. Major indices are mixed following slight weakness in US stocks overnight. The Pound failed to break through near term resistance against Dollar for the second time and retreated. Euro's rebound against Dollar also lost momentum. Canadian Dollar recovered after BoC Governor...
Sterling Regains Strength, Markets Unsure on US-China Trade Deal
The forex markets are rather mixed today even though stocks are generally in risk averse mode. Sterling regains some strength and takes Euro higher with it. Yet, there is no follow through buying through near term resistance against Dollar and Yen yet. Yen and Dollar turned mixed as markets...
Sentiments Weighed Down by US-China Uncertainties, Yen Higher
Commodity currencies are back under pressure as Asian markets tumble on uncertainties over US-China relations. It's unsure whether the phase-one trade deal could be completed in time to avert the December batch of new tariffs. The situation is further complicated by US passage on an Act to support Hong...
FOMC Minutes Revealed that Most Members Saw Current Rate Level as Appropriate
The FOMC minutes for the October meeting revealed that most members judged that the monetary easing was enough to support growth. However, they continued to see downside to the economic outlook.
In October, the members voted to cut the Fed funds rate by -25 bps to a range of 1.5-1.75%....
Dollar and Yen Rise on Concerns Over US-China Relations
Dollar and Yen are the two strongest ones today so far as investors are turning cautious regarding US-China relations. The so called phase-one trade was was supposed to be signed at the cancelled APEC summit in Chile last week. But there is no concrete news regarding the progress yet....
Sentiments Hurt as US-China Political Tensions Intensify Over Hong Kong
Yen and Swiss Franc are back in driving seats, together with Dollar. US stocks hit new record highs overnight reversed to closed lower. Asian markets follow and trade broadly lower. While there is no "concrete" good news regarding US-China trade deal, political tensions between the two super power intensified...
Sentiments Lifted as China Will Step Up Credit Support, Dollar Mixed after Housing Data
Sentiments in the markets were lifted by news that China is going to step up credit support to the economy. Commodity currencies strike a strong come back, as led by New Zealand and Australian Dollar. On the other hand, Swiss Franc and Yen are back under pressure. Sterling also...
Aussie Weak after Dovish RBA Minutes, Dollar Mixed on Trade
Australian Dollar weakens broadly today following more dovish than expected RBA minutes. New Zealand Dollar is currently the second weakest together with Swiss Franc. On the other hand, Euro, Sterling and Yen are the stronger ones. Dollar is mixed on confusing messages regarding US-China trade deal. So far, it...
RBA Minutes: Members Considered Rate Cut This Month. Disappointing Job Report Raises the Case for Further Easing
RBA’s minutes for the November meeting sent a more dovish tone than expected. At the Statement of Monetary Policy, the members noted that “the Board was mindful that rates were already very low and that each further cut brings closer the point at which other policy options come into...
Yen Rebounds on Talks of China’s Pessimism on Trade Deal
Yen rebounds strongly in early US session on talks that China is pessimistic on US trade deal. But still, at this point, Sterling remains the strongest one for today as lifted by hope of a Conservative win in the upcoming election in December. For now, Euro is also firm...