BOC Unexpectedly Turned More Upbeat in December
BOC left the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% in December. The accompanying statement turned more hawkish than October. Despite ongoing trade war uncertainty, policymakers remained upbeat about the domestic economic growth. They also acknowledged that the global economy has stabilised. It now appears that the central bank would prefer...
US Crude Oil Inventory Dropped by Almost 5M barrel, Sending Price Up by 4%
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks declined -4.93 mmb to 1263.83 mmb in the week ended November 29 . Crude oil inventory declined -4.86 mmb (consensus: -1.73 mmb). Inventory declined in 4 out of 5...
Dollar Dives after ADP Job Miss, Sterling Shines
Dollar is under much selling pressure after another data miss in ADP employment. Markets are starting to worry that slowdown in the USA economy is not over. Road ahead could be even more bumpy with persistent trade risks. Bloomberg reported that US and China are still close to the...
Markets in Risk Aversion on US-China Tensions, Yen Jumps Broadly
Markets turn into deep risk averse mode on concerns over US-China relations. . It's not getting more unlikely that the phase one trade deal would be agreed in time to avert tariff escalation on December 15. Political tensions also intensified after House passed the the Uighur Act, just a...
Stocks and Dollar Plummet as Trump Say China Trade Deal May Drag On
US stocks futures and Dollar tumble broadly today after US President Trump indicated that he has no deadline for China trade deal, and could even wait until after 2020 election to make it. If the phase one deal is dragged on, through December 15 "natural deadline", new round of...
BOC to Stand on the Sideline in December, while Noting Possible Rate Cut
Despite the dovish surprise in October, we expect BOC to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% this week. Economic data released during the inter-meeting period stayed firm, allowing the central bank to take more time to monitor the situation. However, it will continue to warn that US-China trade...
RBA Left Cash Rate Unchanged but Hinted To Ease Further
As widely anticipated, RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 0.75% in December. The central bank was cautiously optimistic about domestic economic development. While seeing turning points on the economic in general and the housing market in particular, the members remained concerned about consumption and the job market. They...
Dollar Tumbles on Poor Data and Tariff Threats, Risking More Downside
The US markets were sold off deeply overnight after after poor ISM manufacturing data and renewed tariff threats. Dollar also suffered deep selling pressure, together with Canadian. Though, there was no clear fund flows into the Japanese Yen, as risk aversion was countered by surge in major treasury yields....
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Selling Pressure in GBP Increased as Elections Approach
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended November 26. NET LENGTH in USD Index slipped -487 contracts to 24 138. Speculative long positions fell -2 276 contracts and short positions dropped -1 789 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures fell...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Bet for Higher Crude Oil Price ahead of OPEC+ Meeting
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended November 26, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures soared +40 961 contracts to 470 936 for the week. Speculative long positions rose 12 317 contracts while shorts declined -26 844 contracts. Traders were speculating that OPEC and...
Dollar Tumbles after Trump Restore Steel Tariffs on Brazil and Argentina
Market sentiments are generally weighed down by renewed trade concerns after US President Donald Trump's decision to restore steel and aluminum tariffs on Brazil and Argentina. Additionally, China formally started some form of retaliation against US on its support on Hong Kong's democracy movement. Dollar is trading broadly lower...
Strong Manufacturing PMI Sent Hope of Stabilization in Chinese Economy
Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) suggested that the manufacturing China improved in November. Improvement in manufacturing PMIs signaled that upcoming industrial production data can surprise to the upside.
The official PMI improved +0.9 point to 50.2 in November. This marks the first expansion (above 50) since March and the second largest...
Yen Lower as Markets Cheer China Manufacturing Data
Yen trades broadly lower while Australian and New Zealand Dollars strengthen in Asia. Stock markets are cheering better than expected manufacturing data from China. Nikkei leads the way higher but gains in Hong Kong and Shanghai are limited. Yen is also additionally pressured by extended rebound in JGB yields....
Sterling Jumped on Election and Brexit Hopes, US Stocks Hit Records ahead of Important December
Sterling ended as the strongest one last week as it looks like Conservative is set to have a majority win in the upcoming elections. If materialized, UK is finally heading for an orderly Brexit next January, clearing all uncertainties. On the other hand, Japanese Yen was the weakest one,...
European Majors Lower ahead of Month End, USD/CHF Breaks Parity
European majors are trading generally lower today, in quiet markets just ahead of monthly close. On the other hand, Dollar is among the strongest together with Aussie and Kiwi. Despite steep selloff in Asian stocks, European markets recover after initial weakness. Bond markets are steady with major treasury yields...
Yen Soft on Treasury Yields, Shrugs Free Fall in Hong Kong Stocks
The forex markets are rather quiet in Asian session today, but risk aversion is dominating in stocks as lead by deep decline in Hong Kong. Institutional investors could be starting to light up their positions just ahead of an important December. US support of Hong Kong autonomy and democracy...
Sterling Surges as YouGov Poll Lifts Brexit Optimism
Sterling surges broadly today as YouGov predicts a Conservative Win in the upcoming UK election, which puts Brexit on the right track. The Pound also takes Euro slightly higher somewhat. On the other hand, Australian Dollar is generally weaker after poor capital expenditure data. Yen recovers mildly but stays...
US Oil Inventory Increased Across the Board
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks added +0.15 mmb to 1268.76 mmb in the week ended November 22 . Crude oil inventory added +1.57 mmb to 451.95 mmb (consensus: -0.42 mmb). Inventory gained in 3...
Dollar Lifted Mildly by Solid Durables, Euro and Swiss Soft
Dollar trades generally higher today as supported by better than expected economic data, in particular, durable goods orders. Though, Sterling is so far even stronger, as consolidations extend. On the other hand, Euro is the worst performing one, followed by Swiss Franc. For the week so far, the Pound...
Dollar Firms Up Mildly as Brief Consolidation Might Be Finished
Dollar firms up mildly in Asian session as this week's brief consolidation seems to be completed. Stocks were given another lift by trade hope overnight, with major indices extending record runs. Optimism somewhat continues in Asia but investors there seem to be relatively unconvinced. Kiwi is currently the second...