Dollar Recovering as Risk Appetite Recedes, Euro Turns Softer after ECB
Risk appetite recedes mildly today as European indices turn negative after initial gain, dragging US futures lower too. Euro is originally rather unmoved by ECB's policy decision as well as press conference. But some weakness is seen at the time of writing. Traders seem to be betting more on...
Dollar Shrugs FOMC While Euro Awaits ECB and GDP
Commodity currencies remain the strongest one today as supported by risk appetite. Sentiments are lifted by expectations of lockdown exits as well as optimism on coronavirus treatment. Dollar remains generally weak with Fed providing little inspirations. Euro and Swiss Franc are not much better than the greenback. Euro's weakness...
Crude Oil Selloff Could Resume in Weeks as Cushing Approaches Full Capacity
WTI crude oil price consolidated after the collapse in the previous week. Crude oil inventory continued to increase despite slowdown in pace. The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks rose +10.41 mmb to 1377.51 mmb in...
Fed Markedly Downgraded Economic Assessments on Sharp Decline in Activities and Surge in Unemployment
While maintaining all monetary policy measures unchanged in April, FOMC sent a more negative message about the economy. The members noted the sharp deterioration in economic activities and a jump in unemployment, cautioning that the negative impacts could prolong in the medium term. The Fed pledged to maintain the...
Dollar Weakness Continues after GDP Contraction, FOMC Next
Dollar's weakness continues today as largest GDP contraction in more than a decade gives no help. A wave of selling is seen in Sterling in European session. Yet there was no sustainable momentum so far. Yen is follow as the third weakest on mild yet solid risk appetite. Commodity...
Aussie Extends Rally on Strong CPI, Weak Dollar Awaits Fed and GDP
Australian Dollar remains the strongest one for the week as stronger than expected CPI data prompted another round of buying in Asia. Other commodity currencies are also firm, but the Japanese Yen is not too far away. Dollar, on the other hand, is the worst performing one for the...
ECB to Send a Dovish Tone and Pledge to Take Further Actions if Needed. Rate Cut Appears Less Relevant than QE
We expect ECB to keep its powder dry at this week’s meeting, after launching several stimulus measures last month. The central bank should maintain a dovish tone, indicating disappointing economic data and pledging the take further actions if needed. As EU has so far failed to agree on substantial...
Dollar Under Broad Based Pressure on USD/JPY Downside Breakout
Dollar's broad based decline resumes today with the help from downside break out in USD/JPY. Risk sentiments are firm on reopening optimism, with generally rally in European indices. Swiss Franc is pressured as the third weakest, following Dollar and New Zealand Dollar. Yet, Yen is not too bothered and...
Asian Markets Turned Mixed With Falling Oil and Gold, Kiwi Weakest
Despite extended stock rally in the US overnight, Asian markets turned mixed. Renewed weakness in oil price is a factor weighing on sentiments, as WTI crude oil is down at 11 handle, threatening 10 handle again. Gold also dips below 1700 handle, as Dollar is trying to recover. For...
Stocks Lifted by Lockdown Exit Optimism, Dollar and Swiss Weaken
Dollar and Swiss Franc weaken broadly today on optimism that many countries are heading towards lockdown exit. New Zealanders will return to work on Tuesday as alert level is shifted down at midnight. Even Italy is talking about reopening factories and buildings sites from May 4. New York is...
BOJ’s QE Expansion Likely Ineffective Despite Pledge of Unlimited Purchases
BOJ announced to expand QE today. It will increase support on corporate financing and remove the annual purchase limit for JGBs, from 80 trillion yen previously. Meanwhile, the central bank left the overnight rate unchanged at -0.1%, and the yield curve control (YCC) program in order to keep the...
FOMC to Highlight Weakness in Economy and Reinforce Dovish Stance in April Meeting
Following unprecedented measures announced in March, we expect the Fed to leave the policies unchanged at the April meeting. The focus will be on the economic assessment and the forward guidance. We expect the members to acknowledge the rapid deterioration in employment, demand, and confidence since the coronavirus outbreak....
Yen Mixed after BoJ’s Additional Easing, Aussie and Kiwi Strong
Yen is trading mixed after BoJ announced additional easing measures, following shortened monetary policy meeting. Australian and New Zealand Dollars are the strongest ones. Both countries have been performing extraordinarily well in containing the coronavirus spread and are planning for lockdown exits. On the other hand, Dollar and Swiss...
Aussie and Yen Ended as Strongest as Conoslidative Markets Remained Indecisive
The unimaginable negative oil price was the biggest head-liner last week. But the impact on other markets were relatively short lived. Canadian Dollar was much bothered for most of the week, but eventually it's just the second worst performing, following Sterling. On the other hand, Australian Dollar ended as...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Bet Crude Oil Price to Rebound after Collapse
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended April 21, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures soared +76 511 contracts to 587 180 for the week. Speculative long positions jumped +35 774 contracts while shorts added -40 737 contracts. The WTI contract for May delivery...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Lower British Pound Rose on Disappointing UK Data
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended April 21, NET LENGTH in USD Index added +259 contracts to 15 616. Speculative long positions gained +989 contracts and short positions added +723 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures rose +601 contracts...
Dollar Dips after Durable Goods Orders Contractions, Euro Pare Losses
The currency markets are relatively quiet today, with major pairs bounded inside yesterday's range. Dollar weakens after poor durable goods orders data, but New Zealand Dollar is even weaker. Euro recovers after yesterday's selloff, followed by Canadian Dollar ans Swiss Franc. For the week, Aussie is the strongest one,...
Euro Stays Weak in Mixed Markets, Canadian Attempting a Rebound
Euro and Swiss Franc remains broadly pressured today even though there is no follow through selling yet. But markets elsewhere are relatively mixed. While Australian and New Zealand Dollar attempted for a rebound, Dollar and Yen are not overwhelmed yet. Canadian Dollar is slightly stronger for now as oil...
Euro Downside Breakout after Terrible PMIs, Dollar Dragged by Jobless Claims
Euro suffers heavy selling in today on terrible PMI data, which suggests that the coronavirus pandemic damage could be far more severe than imaginable. The common currency drags down the Swiss Franc too. Dollar couldn't ride on Euro's weakness and even faces some selling after another set of astronomical...
Canadian Dollar Weakness Expected to Catch Up with Recent Oil Price Collapse
Canadian dollar has only edged lower amidst the recent collapse in crude oil price. This is not usual given the strong correlation between the loonie and oil price, as well as the contribution of the energy sector to the country’s economy. We believe the FX market has not fully...