Markets Shrug Record Labor Down Turn, Dollar Soft With Yen on Risk Sentiments
Economic data from the US shows the sharpest labor downturn in history due to coronavirus pandemic. Yet, the financial markets have little reactions to the terrible data. US futures are pointing to higher open while European indices are in black. Investors are somewhat relieved by a formal statement by...
What to Expect from CCP’s Two Sessions?
After two months' delay, the long-awaited “two sessions” will be held in two weeks’ time. The National People’s Congress (NPC) is scheduled on May 22 while the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Committee (CPPCC) is scheduled on May 21. The meetings this year have symbolic meaning from the perspective of...
RBA Forecasts Double-Digit Contraction and Unemployment in First Half of the Year
As revealed in the latest Statement of Monetary Policy (SMP), RBA sharply cut economic forecasts for this year. GDP is projected to record double-digit contraction in the first half of the year before recovery in 2021. The unemployment rate could peak at 10%, while inflation could fall the negative...
Dollar Softens on Negative Rate Talks, US-China Trade Deal Made Progress
Dollar turned weaker overnight as markets on talks that Fed could eventually go into negative interest rates. Safe haven flows also continued to recede in generally, with NASDAQ extending recent rebound, even though DOW's rally was still capped. Australian Dollar continues to surge higher, shrugging off RBA's economic projections....
Yen Dips on Higher Stocks and Oil, Dollar Shrugs Job Numbers
Risk sentiments seem to have firm up again today despite rather poor economic data. Major stock indices in Europe are in black while US futures point to higher open. WTI crude oil is also extending recent rebound, with June contract now above 26.2. Commodity currencies are generally higher as...
Sterling Recovers after BoE, Yen Paring Gains
Sterling recovers mildly today after BoE left monetary policy unchanged as widely expected. Two members voted for an increase in asset purchase but that was shrugged off by the markets. Though, Australian Dollar is even stronger for the moment. Yen weakens mildly together with Swiss Franc. But for the...
Crude Oil Price Recovers as US Stockbuild Slowed and OPEC+ Began Output Cut
Crude oil price continued to recover after the collapse two weeks ago. Slowdown in the build-up of oil inventory, hopes of demand improvement, and expectations of demand/supply re-balance as OPEC+ began output cut in May are key driving forces. The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows...
Dollar Firm Despite Historic ADP Job Loss, But Yen Stronger
Yen is staying as the strongest one today while the financial markets are generally mixed. Dollar is not too bothered by the ADP report which showed -20m private job losses. It's currently trading as the second strongest, followed by Australian. Sterling is currently the weakest ones with Euro, after...
Yen Surges Through Resistance Against Dollar and Euro
Yen is trading generally higher is Asian session and broke some near term resistance level. Risk sentiments are mixed in major Asian markets. While US stocks ended with gains overnight, the closes in major indices were indeed lower then opens. That's a signal of indecisiveness among the bulls. Commodity...
Euro Tumbles as German Court Judges ECB Bond Buying Partially Contravenes the Law
Euro tumbles broadly today, together with the Swiss Franc, after Germany's constitutional court has ruled that ECB's stimulus program is partly in conflict with the country's law. ECB has to prove that it's QE program isn't providing monetary financing to heavily indebted governments. The German government is also required...
Aussie Follows Stocks Higher, Steady after RBA
Australian Dollar strengthen mildly today following recovery in the stock markets. It remains steady after RBA left monetary policy unchanged as widely expected. Rally in oil price, with WTI crude oil up 6.5% at 21.7, is helping sentiments in general, as well as the Canadian Dollar. On the other...
Euro Weighed Down by Sentiment Indicators, Markets in Mild Risk-Off
US-China tension continues to be a major theme today, driving global stocks and US futures down. Developments are happening on many fronts. There will be proposed law changes to allow private entities to sue China for coronavirus damages. Investment of federal retirement funds in Chinese stocks could be blocked....
BOE to Keep Stimulus Measures Unchanged in May. Could Announce QE Extension in Coming Two Months
We expect BOE to leave both the policy rate and other liquidity expansion measures unchanged this week. Despite government’s plan to ease lockdown measures amidst stabilization of coronavirus cases, the process will be gradual. Meanwhile, social distancing measures will remain for an extended period of time. These suggest that...
Markets in Defense on US-China Tensions, Dollar and Yen Higher
Yen and Dollar trade generally higher in Asian session today. Trading is relatively subdued with Japan and China on holiday. Yet, the theme of US-China tension drives some risk-off moves. May didn't start well as investors seemed to be rushing to reverse April's risk-on moves. As for today, New...
RBA to Stay on Hold in May. Economic Forecasts to be Downgraded
RBA is widely expected to leave the cash rate unchanged at 0.25% on the May 5 meeting. It will also keep other stimulus measures, including targeting 3-year bond yield, term funding facility operation and QE, announced in March the same. The members will, however, markedly revise lower economic projections.
In...
From Coronavirus Lockdown Exit to New US-China Tariff war
Economic data releases have probably never been that meaningless in history. Traders were not too concerned that the Q1, March or even April data were worse than terrible. Instead, hope of lockdown exit, at least partially, have lifted risk markets for the initial part of the week. Risks of...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Higher Safe Haven Currencies Increased
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended April 30, NET LENGTH in USD Index added +472 contracts to 16 088. Speculative long positions gained +1 425 contracts and short positions added +953 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures declined -7...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET LENGTH on Crude Oil Increased on Bargain Hunting
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended April 30, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures added +2 208 contracts to 589 388 for the week. Speculative long positions gained +1 530 contracts while shorts dropped -678 contracts. While the front-month WTI crude contract rebounded ...
May Starts in Risk Aversion, Yen and Franc Surge
Yen and Swiss Franc surge broadly today as risk aversion seems to be back as May starts. Warnings from Amazon and Apple are cited as the reason for the decline in US futures. On the other hand, Chinese is trading sharply lower on concerns that US President Donald Trump...
Aussie Turns Lower as Markets Reversing April’s Moves
Australian Dollar is leading commodity currencies broadly lower in Asian session today, as markets seem to be rushing to reverse April's moves. Euro has somewhat taken the lead overnight, pulling Swiss Franc higher too, after initial reactions to non-eventful ECB. Yen is also trading generally lower in relatively quiet...