US Crude Oil Inventory Sank for Second Consecutive Week, While Refined Product Stocks Increased
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks fell -2.11 mmb to 1452.57 mmb in the week ended July 31. Crude oil inventory declined -7.37 mmb (consensus: -3 mmb) to 518.6 mmb. Stockpile fell in 3 out...
Dollar Selloff Intensifies after Huge Miss of ADP Job Data
Dollar's selloff intensifies in early US session after ADP job report hugely missed expectations. The strong upward revision in prior month's figure just make the picture looks worse, exaggeration the steep slowdown in labor market rebound. At this point, Yen is following the greenback as then second weakest, then...
Gold Breaks US$2000/oz as US dollar Loses Credibility as Reserve Currency
Breaking yet another new record, gold price has surpassed psychological level US$2000/oz. As we mentioned in last week’s report, the key drivers for the rally are low real yields and rising inflation expectations. Weakness is US dollar is another driver for the yellow metal's strength. However, the negative correlation...
Dollar Tumbles as Gold and NASDAQ Hit New Records
Dollar is back in selloff mode again after rebound attempt failed. The broad based trend against the greenback is clear, with gold hitting new record high above 2000 handle. WTI crude oil is also back above 41, pressing 42 handle. Overall risk-on sentiments, with NADSAQ making new record high,...
Dollar Having Another Rebound Attempt, Sterling Pulls Back
Dollar is having another rally attempt today and appears to be making some progress, at least against the relatively weaker Sterling. At this point, Swiss Franc is the strongest one, followed by the greenback. Australian Dollar is also firm after a non-eventful RBA rate decision. On the other hand,...
Aussie Firmer after RBA, Dollar Rebound Fades
Dollar turns soft again after momentum for rebound faded quickly. Euro and Swiss Franc are back in control even though they're still generally range bound. Australian Dollar is following closely after RBA stands pat as widely expected. Recovery is still expected and the central didn't sound concerned with recent...
RBA Cautioned over Uneven and Bumpy Recovery amidst Second Wave of Outbreak. Maintained All Easing Measures
At the July meeting, RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 0.25% and maintained yield curve targeting for 3-year bonds at 0.25%. While acknowledging that economic contraction has been less severe than previously anticipated, policymakers left economic forecasts largely intact. The cautiousness was driven by the latest round of...
BOE Preview – Expecting More Hint on Lowering ELB while Near-Term Outlook Might be Upgraded
BOE is widely anticipated to leave the Bank rate unchanged at record low of 0.1% this week. The asset purchase program (QE) will also be maintained at 745B pound. Of most interest in the meeting are the updated economic assessments, discussions on the effective lower bound (ELB) and negative...
Dollar Extending Recovery, Turning Around the Corner
Dollar starts the month with a much firmer footing, trading broadly higher as the strongest one so far. The rally is particular against Swiss Franc, which is currently the weakest one. Yet the greenback will firstly need to overcome some near term technical levels to convince traders about its...
Trading Subdued in Cautious Mood, Dollar Still Finding Momentum for Rebound
Trading in forex markets is rather subdued today in overall mixed mood. Better than expected manufacturing data provides little lift to sentiments. Coronavirus curfew in Australia's Victoria state is also shrugged off. Instead, traders are generally cautious ahead of a very busy week. RBA and BoE will meeting while...
RBA to Caution about Economic Impacts of Renewed Lockdown, Relying on Fiscal Policy for Stimulus
RBA will most likely leave all of its monetary policy measures unchanged in August.
The cash rate will stay on hold at 0.25%, the yield curve control program remains targeting 3-year government bonds at 0.25% and the Term Funding Facility will remain in place. However, the officials’ view on the...
Yen, Dollar, Aussie, Gold and Stocks in Focuses in a Busy Week
Dollar's selloff extended last week, after rather uneventful Fed meeting. The decline was particularly serious against generally strong European majors. Sterling ended as the strongest one this time, followed by Euro and Swiss Franc. While the greenback was weak, New Zealand and Canadian Dollar were even worse, with the...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET LENGTH on Crude Oil and Gold Futures Declined on Profit Taking
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended July 28, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures plunged -16 307 contracts to 532 569 for the week. Speculative long position slumped -11 088 contracts, while shorts gained +5 219. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH for...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Higher Euro Sharply Increased as the Currency Rose to Highest to about 2 Years
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended July 28, NET SHORT for USD Index futures increased +934 to 6 727 contracts. Speculative long positions gained +3 856 contracts and short positions added +4 790 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures...
Dollar Recovers Mildly ahead of Monthly Close, CAD Lifted Slightly by GDP
Dollar recovers mildly as markets turned mixed ahead of monthly close, but remains the second weakest for the week. Canadian Dollar is currently still the worst performing, as dragged by oil selloff. But we'll see if better than expected GDP data could give the Loonie a lift before the...
China’s Economy Continued to Improve in July, but Pace Varied Across Sectors
China’s official PMI report reveals that economic activities continued to expand in July. However, the pace of recovery varied across sectors. Manufacturing and construction activities improved faster than expected, thanks to better overseas demand government’s stimulus measures. However, the services sector was dragged as household demand remained weak. Although...
Euro Power Continues ahead of GDP, Dollar Drags Further by Falling Yields
Dollar's broad based selloff continues in Asian session today. There are increasing concerns that momentum of US economic recovery is starting to falter. The pessimism is somewhat reflected in persistent decline in treasury yields too. Though, Canadian Dollar is even worse as pressured by sharp decline in oil prices....
Risk Sentiments Weaken on Record GDP Contractions, Canadian Follow Oil Lower
Commodity currencies are general under pressure today, following global stock markets lower. Record Q2 GDP contraction in Germany and US are weighing on sentiments. Rebound in jobless claims add to concern of double dip recession. US futures also tumble after President Donald Trump floats the idea of delaying 2020...
US Crude Oil Inventory Surprisingly Plunged, While Petroleum Stockpile Gained
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks soared +8.82 mmb to 1461.16 mmb in the week ended July 24. Crude oil inventory slumped -10.61 mmb (consensus: +0.36 mmb) to 525.97 mmb. Stockpile fell in 4 out...
Dovish Fed Warned that Recovery Path Dependent on Virus, Pledged to Add More Stimulus when Needed
The Fed sent a more dovish message at the July meeting, although the monetary policy, as well as the accompanying statement, stayed largely unchanged. Despite improvement of data flow, the members warned that the pace of recovery is depending on the developments of coronavirus pandemic. Fed Chair Jerome Powell...