China’s Retail Sales Shrank Further, Evidencing Weak Domestic Demand
The latest set of macroeconomic data suggests that the pace of recovery in China remained slow, as a result of flooding and second wave of coronavirus outbreak. Improvement industrial activities decelerated, while retail sales continued to shrink. Weak domestic spending was evident in subdued core CPI released earlier this...
Dollar Shrugs Jobless Claims, Yen Selloff Accelerates
Dollar continues to trade with a soft tone despite better than expected jobless claims data. The decline in claims data is seen more as a result of expiration USD 600 a week supplemental federal benefits, rather than the improvement in the labor market conditions. For now, though, New Zealand...
Euro Higher in Consolidative Markets, Yet to Break Resistance Against Dollar
European majors turn slightly stronger today, in mixed markets. Euro appears to be supported by news that US is refraining from tariffs hikes on Airbus subsidies retaliation. Though, except versus Yen, Euro's strength is not too convincing yet. Dollar turns soft again following strong rally in US stocks overnight....
US Oil and Petroleum Product Stockpile Fell Across the Board Last Week
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks fell -2.11 mmb to 1452.57 mmb in the week ended August 12. Crude oil inventory declined -4.51 mmb (consensus: -2.88 mmb) to 514.08 mmb. Stockpile fell in 2 out...
Yen Accelerates Lower on Rebound in Yields, Strength in US Stocks
Yen is trading as the worst performing today so far, as pressured by surge in US treasury yields. In particular, 10-year yield is above 0.68 handle in pre-markets and could even challenge 0.7% today. US futures also point to higher open with S&P 500 could finally challenge record high....
Dollar Rebounds on Gold and Yield, NZD Hammered by Double Whammy
New Zealand Dollar tumbles broadly today as weighed down by double-whammy of RBNZ QE expansion and return to lockdown. The selloff in Kiwi is somewhat dragging down Aussie and Canadian too. On the other hand, Dollar is staging a strong rebound, with help from much steeper than expected correction...
Gold in Steep Correction as Global Stocks in Strong Rally
The global financial markets continue to trade in full risk-on mode today. In particular, US futures point to sharply higher open as S&P 500 would likely take on new record high. Canadian Dollar is currently the strongest one for today, as lifted by mildly higher oil price. Australian Dollar...
Crude’s Strength Might Pause as OPEC+ Output Set to Increase Further this Month
Crude oil prices remained firm, after the rally in July. The front-month WTI crude oil contract gained +2.36% in the first week of August, after gaining +2.55% in the month of July. The Brent contract rose +2.54%, following a +5.22% rally in July. Profit-taking might be seen in coming...
Markets Back in Risk-On Mode While Dollar, Yen and Franc Weaken
Asian markets surge broadly today, following the strong close in US stocks. DOW is finally catching up by a powerful break through June's high while S&P 500 is closing in on record high. Investors welcomed the news of falling coronavirus hospitalizations in New Work, California and Texas. The trade...
Swiss Franc Weakens While Markets Tread Water
Markets continue to tread water today with little movements. European indices are fluctuating in tight range between gain and loss. US futures point to mildly higher open. In the currency markets, most major pairs and crosses are stuck in side Friday's range. Swiss franc is currently weakest, followed by...
Subdued Trading With Japan and Singapore on Holiday, Dollar Yet to Confirm Rebound
The week starts with a rather subdued tone without much activity. It's National Day of Singapore while Japan is also on Mountain Day holiday. There is also no further price movements on US-China tensions. Major forex pairs and crosses are stuck inside Friday's range, with Dollar and Swiss Franc...
RBNZ Preview: Expect QE Size Expansion and More Discussion on Negative Rates
We expect RBNZ to leave the OCR unchanged at 0.25% this week. It will likely increase the size of the Large-Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) Program (QE) to NZD 80-90B from the current NZD 60B. The accompanying statement would contain a dovish tone, with policymakers discussing more alternative policy tools...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Gold’s Net Length Climbed Slightly as Short Positions Emerged after Weeks’ of Rally
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended August 4, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures gained +3 697 contracts to 536 266 for the week. Speculative long position rose +16 930 contracts, while shorts gained +13 233. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH for...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Bets on USD amidst Hopes of Recovery
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended August 4, NET SHORT for USD Index futures decreased -252 to 6 475 contracts. Bets fell on both sides as the greenback is still finding bottom after losing almost -10% against a basket of currencies since...
Dollar Trying For Rebound after Trump’s Combination Move Against CCP
Dollar was under pressure most of the week on risk-on sentiments. NASDAQ gapped higher and marched to new record highs. Nevertheless, the greenback staged a notable comeback after combination move by the US administration against the Chinese Communist Party, with bans on TikTok and WeChat, as well as sanction...
Dollar Shrugs Better Than Expected NFP, Still Struggling to Extend Rebound
Reactions to the better than expected job data from US and Canada are rather muted. The greenback is currently trying to extend recovery. Yet, it's still the worst performing one for the week. Eyes remain on developments of US-China relations. But it probably takes a bit more time for...
China’s Trade Surplus Widened in July, Trade Deal Review Next Week In Focus
China’s trade data surprised to the upside in July. This was mainly driven by strong exports, offsetting decline in imports. Exports gained +7.2% y/y in July, following a 0.5% increase a month. This has beaten consensus of a -0.6% drop. From a month ago, exports rose +5.7$, after climbing...
Dollar Recovers on US-China Tech War, But Big NFP Challenge Ahead
The markets turn into mild risk-off mode in Asia, after US President Donald Trump stepped up the tech war with China, by banning TikTok and WeChat. Commodity currencies are generally lower as lead by Australian Dollar. On the other hand, Dollar and Yen strengthen broadly. Nevertheless, for the week,...
Dollar Stabilizes after Jobless Claims, But No Rebound Yet
Sterling remain remains the strongest one for today, as it's maintaining post BoE gains. Nevertheless, there is no apparent follow through buying after the initial surge. On the other hand, Dollar appears to be stabilizing mildly, and it's receiving some support from better than expected jobless claims. Though, the...
Sterling Lifted after BoE, Dollar Remains the Worst One for the Week
Sterling strengthens generally today after BoE stands pat. Even though investments remained weak, the central offered some optimism in the way that spending recovered significantly. At this point, Euro is the second strongest, followed by Yen. New Zealand Dollar and Canadian are the weaker ones. For the week, however,...