CFTC Commitments of Traders – Soaring market sentiment Increased Bets on Higher Commodity Prices, Except for Gold
With the exception of gold, commodities under our coverage saw net increase in long positions. Optimistic news about coronavirus vaccine lifted market sentiment, raising hopes that global economy could return to normal later next year. According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended November 10, NET...
Rebound in Crude Oil Price to be Short-lived as OPEC+ Cut Can Hardly Balance Market
Crude oil prices jumped amidst more optimistic news above coronavirus vaccine. The market also anticipates OPEC+ to extend the output cut deal until 1Q2021. For the latter, it appears that most OPEC+ producers agree to extend the cut as global oil demand should remain weak for the year ahead....
No Range Breakout in Dollar Yet Despite Vaccine Optimism
Vaccine optimism pushed DOW to new record high overnight and positive sentiment continues in Asian session. Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc are the weaker ones, while commodity currencies are strongest. Though, major pairs and crosses are generally bounded inside last week's range. That is, Dollar and Yen are holding...
RBA Minutes Affirm that Future Monetary Policy will Rely on QE
The RBA minutes for the November contained little news. After cutting the policy to a new low of 0.1%, policymakers suggested the policy tool in the future will mainly be asset purchases. While the members remained reluctant to lower interest rates to negative, they might have to follow if...
Stocks Cheer Moderna’s Vaccine News, Dollar Mixed
Global investor sentiments are boosted by more good news on coronavirus vaccines. Moderna said it's vaccine was 94.5% effective in preventing COVID-19, based on interim data from a late stage trial. Major European indices are trading up while DOW future is gaining over 450 pts. In the background, solid...
Sentiments Supported by Solid Japan and China Data, Dollar and Yen Soft
Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc are trading generally lower as the week starts with solid risk-on mode. In particular, Nikkei is up more than 2% after release on stronger than expected GDP data. A batch of solid Chinese data also provides support to overall sentiments. New Zealand and Australian...
China’s Economic Recovery and Less Policy Accommodation Lend Support to Renminbi
The latest set of economic data in China reflects that recovery continued in October. Growth was seen in both the supply and demand sides. However, while supply side continued to expand more than anticipated, the consumer spending did not perform as strong as market expectations. PBOC has recently mentioned...
Vaccine News Solidify Risk On Mode; But Yen Selling Lacks Conviction
News of coronavirus vaccine readiness was the biggest market mover last week, solidifying near term risk-on sentiments. Subsequent price actions in major global indices were clearly corrective looking, setting the stage for further rally. Swiss Franc and Yen ended as the worst performing ones, followed by Canadian Dollar, which...
Yen Extending Recovery as Treasury Yields Dip
Yen appears to be trying to reverse the losses posted earlier this week, as helped by pull back in treasury yields. US 10-year yield is trading at around 0.88 a the time of writing, well below this week's high at 0.975. German 10-year yield is also back pressing -0.55...
Yen Recovers Further as Stocks Pull Back Continues
Commodity currencies turn softer today, following pull back in stocks. On the other hand, Yen, Swiss Franc and Dollar are gaining some grounds. Euro and Sterling are mixed on the sideline. Over the week, Kiwi remains the strongest one, followed by Dollar and then Sterling. Swiss Franc and Yen...
US Crude Inventory Increased, Curbing Price Rebound
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks plunged -16.8 mmb to 1402.34 mmb in the week ended November 6. Crude oil inventory gained +4.28 mmb (consensus: -0.91 mmb) to 488.71 mmb. Stockpile increased in 2 out...
Sterling Reverses after GDP, Dollar Ignores Jobless Claims and CPI
Sterling suffers notable selling today after slightly weaker than expected Q3 GDP data. Though, pull back against Euro could be a bigger driver for the profit-taking. Elsewhere, better than expected US job data and worse than expected Eurozone production data were generally ignored. For now, Aussie is following the...
Yen Paring Losses as Markets Turn to Consolidation, Oil Faces Resistance
The financial markets are staying in consolidative mode. Asian stocks are mixed in tight range, following the mixed closes in US overnight. Gold is trading sideway ahead of key near term support. In the currency markets, Yen and Swiss France are mildly higher, paring some of this week's losses....
New Zealand Dollar Rises after RBNZ, US Yield Resilient
New Zealand Dollar surges broadly today as markets see that RBNZ has less need to cut into negative next year. Kiwi's strength is somewhat taking Aussie higher too. On the other hand, Sterling is paring some of yesterday's strong gain while Dollar is following as second weakest for now....
Chance of Negative OCR Reduces as RBNZ More Confident About Economic Outlook
RBNZ announced that a Funding for Lending Program (FLP) will be implemented in “early December” with an initial size of about NZD 28B. Further details will be announced in coming weeks. The program aims at providing loans to commercial banks at low cost (e.g.: 0.25%). The central bank left...
Sterling Surges on Johnson’s Defeat in Lords, Markets Mixed Elsewhere
Sterling surges broadly today, as traders apparently cheers Prime Minister Boris Johnson's defeat in the Lords regarding his internal market bill. But the forex markets are relatively quiet elsewhere. New Zealand Dollar is currently the second strongest, following the Pound. Swiss Franc is the weakest, followed by Canadian and...
China Data – Inflation Slowed Markedly on Food Price; Trade Surplus Widened as Exports Growth Strongly
China’s inflation moderated in October. Headline CPI eased sharply to +0.5% y/y, from +1.7% a month ago. The decline was mainly driven by food price, of which growth decelerated to +2.2% from September’s +7.9%. Non-food price actually stayed flat at 0%, while core CPI also steadied at +0.5%. Concerning...
Markets Mixed as Vaccine Boost Fades, Dollar Support by Yields
The forex markets turned mixed in Asian session today as the boost from coronavirus vaccine faded quickly. The close in US stocks overnight was rather disappointing and DOW ended up just 2.95%. NASDAQ has indeed closed with -1.53% loss. In the currency markets, Yen is trying to recover but...
Gold Got Dumped on Vaccine Hopes and Removal of Election Overhang
Pfizer coronavirus vaccine news has sharply lifted market sentiment. As the positive news raised hopes that the pandemic will soon be under control and global economy will be back on track, gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset, dived. The benchmark Comex contract slumped almost US$100/oz to settle at US$1853.2/oz....
Yen Selling Takes Off as World in Euphoria on Coronavirus Vaccine News
The world, at least the financial markets part, is in euphoria today on news that tens of millions doses of coronavirus vaccine are ready this year, to pull it out of the coronavirus pandemic that took away over 1.2 millions lives. DOW future is in massive rally, up around...