JPY to Continue Grind against USD on Policy Convergence, Reduced Capital Outflow and Current Account Surplus
Japanese yen gained +5% against US dollar last year. The strength was only modest, compared with about +9% gains of AUD, EUR and CHF. Notwithstanding the lackluster improvement in Japan’s inflation outlook and exhaustion of BOJ’s stimulus, we expect Japanese yen to extend its modest gain against the greenback...
Dollar Trades Lower as Markets Open the Year on Firm Footing
Dollar trades generally lower today as Asian markets ex-Japan open the year on strong footing. Investors are generally riding on optimism of vaccine rollouts and an eventual sustainable global recovery. Though, for the short term, Japan is facing risk of more lookdowns while coronavirus infections in the US could...
Euro to Stay Positive against USD in 2021, though with Upside Limited
After gaining almost +10% this year, we expect EURUSD to strengthen further in 2021. While Eurozone continues to struggle with slow recovery and subdued inflation, the broad-based weakness in US dollar is anticipated to support the pair. As we mentioned in the previous report, we are bearish over US...
USD/JPY Accelerating Down as Dollar Selloff Continues
Dollar remains the worst performing one for today, after earlier downside breakout. Though, selling focus has shifted away from Euro. Currently, Australian Dollar an Sterling are the strongest one, followed by New Zealand Dollar. But Yen buying is accelerating in early US session. It's unsure who will end up...
Dollar Sellers are Back as EUR/USD Makes New High
Dollar's selloff picked up again as year end approaches. While US stocks took a breath overnight, Asia markets ex-Japan is enjoying some solid buying for now. While Euro is strong against Dollar, it's mixed against other European majors. Meanwhile, Canadian Dollar is clearly lagging behind Aussie and Kiwi in...
Euro Surges in Quiet Markets, Yen Dives with Nikkei’s Strong Breakout
Euro's rally is a focus in rather quiet markets today. Clearance of no-deal Brexit risk was a positive for the common currency. There's additional boost from rumors that a EU-China investment deal is likely this week. However, we'd like to point out that European Commission formally (in a statement)...
Dollar and Yen Weaken Again on Strong Risk-on Market
Dollar turns softer again in Asian session today as markets are back in full risk on mode. Following the record runs in US, Nikkei is also hitting new 30-year high. Yen is following as second weakest for now. However, risk appetite is not clearly seen elsewhere. Australian and Canadian...
Sterling Retreats after Failing Breakout, Dollar Recovers
Global stock markets are lifted by US fiscal stimulus as well as Brexit trade deal. S&P 500 and NASDAQ are set to extend recent record runs, as indicated by futures. Though, the movements in the forex markets are relatively subdued. Sterling is paring some of last week's gains, after...
Dollar Softens after Trump Signed Pandemic Relief Bill, Sterling Mildly High on Brexit Trade Deal
Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc are the relatively weaker ones in quiet markets today. Asian investors are lifted slightly after US President Donald Trump signed the massive USD 2.3T package that contains a USD 900B pandemic relief, while also averted government shutdown. Sterling and Euro are the firmer ones...
Last-Minute Brexit Deal Reached. GBP Upside Limited with Good News Already Priced in
A last-minute Brexit trade deal has been reached just before the Christmas. the outcome is largely inline with our expectations. As a no-deal Brexit is avoided, BOE should be able to keep its powder dry for the year to come. The chance of negative interest rate has also been...
US Dollar to Weaken Further Gradually in 2021
The DXY index will likely record a -6% fall in 2020, the first decline in 3 years. Although US economic recovery should lend support to the dollar, exceptionally accommodative monetary policy, widening deficit (exacerbated by the new round of fiscal stimulus) and reduced demand for safe-haven asset should keep...
Sterling Rises as Brexit Deal Said to be Pretty Much There
Sterling rises broadly in early US session on rumor that Brexit trade deal is "pretty much there". But just like recent price actions, upside of the Pound is capped so far, waiting for confirmation. Dollar turns softer after a mixed batch of economic data, while firmer risk sentiment also...
Trading Remains Subdued as Some US Data Awaited
Trading remains rather subdued with markets already in holiday mode. Sterling has the potential to explode with wild moves, but we're so far disappointed by the lack of progress in Brexit trade negotiations. The surge in cases of the coronavirus, with threats of a new strain, also kept risk...
Euro and Swiss Franc Slightly Firmer in Subdued Trading
It seems that traders are already on holiday with the subdued market activity today. Sterling softens again on reports that EU rejected UK's latest proposal on fishing rights. Australia and Zealand Dollars also dip mildly. On the other hand, Swiss France firms up together with Euro, followed by Dollar...
Sterling Volatility Continues, Dollar Rebound Falters
Sterling's exceptional volatility continued as traders turned a bit more optimistic on a Brexit trade deal. But upside remains capped, as nothing is done until everything is done. Markets are also mixed elsewhere, with the positive impact of US fiscal stimulus being offset by worries over new strain of...
Renewed Coronavirus Worries Prompt Risk Aversions, Dollar Rebounds
European markets open the week in heavy selloff on worries over a new strain of coronavirus discovered in the UK, which was seen as "out of control" by the Health minister. At the time of writing, DOW future is also down around -500 pts. Dollar is staging a broad...
Gold’s Rally Supported by US Fiscal Package and Fed’s Pledge to Keep Stimulus Unchanged after 2% Inflation Exceeded
Gold’s rebound late November has continued for a third week. Besides bargain hunting, Fed’s pledge to keep the policy rate low and strengthening in the forward guidance in QE, as well as the latest fiscal package approved by the Congress are the key driving forces supporting the yellow metal.
The...
Sterling Dives Again on Brexit Deadlock and Coronavirus Spread
Sterling opened the week broadly lower after Brexit trade negotiations missed yet another deadline. Additionally, European countries rushed to ban travel from UK as coronavirus infections worsened. Aussie and Kiwi are trailing as the next weakest on mild risk aversion. On the other hand, Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc...
Dollar Resumed Down Trend, Pound Still Awaiting Brexit Trade Talks
Dollar's broad based down trend resumption was a major theme last week. Though, Canadian Dollar was the worst performing one, as it digested recent oil price supported rally. Overall risk appetite, with NASDAQ extending record run, kept Yen and Swiss Franc soft too.
As Brexit trade negotiations went into an...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Bets on US dollar. Better Sentiment Lifted Risk Currencies
US dollar's weakness continued as risk appetite improved. As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended December 15, NET SHORT of USD Index futures more than doubled to 14 056 contracts. Speculative long positions plunged -8 499 contracts and short positions dropped -929 contracts....