FOMC Minutes Revealed that Some Members Raised Discussion over QE Tapering
The minutes for the FOMC meeting in April revealed that policymakers discussed about QE tapering. This came in as a surprise to the market, sending USD higher and Treasury lower. Both the policy statement and the press conference of the April meeting downplayed the need of QE tapering. Recall...
US Crude Oil Inventory Increased for First Time in 3 Weeks
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks slipped -0.23 mmb to 1283.59 mmb in the week ended May 14. Crude oil inventory increased +1.32 mmb (consensus: +1.68 mmb) to 486.01 mmb. Stockpile increased in 4 out...
Stocks Fall on Inflation Data and Surging Yields, Dollar Recovering Mildly
Global equities are under selling pressure today with another round of rise in treasury yields. In particular, Germany 10-year yield jumped above -0.1% handle and hit the highest level since mid-2019. The development came after stronger than expected inflation reading from UK, which was later followed by Canada CPI....
Dollar Staying Weak ahead of FOMC Minutes, Canadian Dollar Lost Momentum
Dollar's decline slowed in Asian session today, but remains generally weak, in particular against European majors. Though, indecisive risk sentiment is somehow limiting upside in commodity currencies, with Canadian Dollar following oil prices lower today. There is prospect of more volatility in the markets today, with consumer inflation data...
Dollar Selloff Intensifies, European Majors Winning
Dollar's selloff intensifies today as risk-on sentiment is slowly coming back to the markets. Yen is following as the next weakest. European majors are currently the main winners. Commodity currencies are somewhat lagging behind. In other markets, European indexes are trading slightly higher while US futures also point to...
Sterling Jumps on Reopening Optimism and Job Data, Risk Appetite Returning
Dollar and Yen are both under pressure again today, as broad based risk sentiments improved. In particular, the volatile Nikkei managed to close up more than 2%. New Zealand Dollar is leading other commodity currencies higher too. But Canadian Dollar and Sterling are the strongest ones for the week...
RBA Minutes Reaffirmed Likelihood of QE Expansion in July
The RBA minutes for the May minutes reaffirmed our view that further expansion in the asset purchase program would be announced later this year. The most likely timing for the announcement would be July.
Domestically, the members noted that the economic was in the transition from recovery to expansion. The...
Weak Risk Sentiment Supporting Dollar, For Now
Commodity currencies are trading as the weaker ones for today so far, as risk markets turn softer. Major European indexes are in slight red,. while US futures point to lower open. Yen is currently the stronger ones, followed by Swiss Franc and then Dollar. But overall, major pairs and...
China’s Growth Slowed Across the Board in April
China’s April data sent a mixed message about the economy. Retail sales expanded +17.7% y/y in April, significantly weaker than consensus of +25% and March’s +34.2%. Urban fixed asset investment (FAI) growth moderated to +19.9% in the first 4 months of the year, from +25.6% in 1Q21. The market...
Dollar Recovers Mildly, Gold Extending Rise, Bitcoin in Free Fall
Dollar and Yen recover mildly in a mixed Asian session today, while commodity currencies are mildly today. But major pairs and crosses are all bounded inside Friday's range so far. China data provided some support to Hong Kong and China stocks but Japanese Nikkei is in another sharp decline....
Stocks Stayed in Up Trend, Yields Range Bound, Dollar Lost Downside Momentum
Market debates heated up last week with the influx of some US economic data. On the other hand, the concerns on overheating inflation was legitimate given the much stronger than expected headline and core CPI reading from the US. On the other hand, poor retail sales, and prior week's...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Length in Gold Futures Increased as Price Strengthened to 3-Month High
Precious metal prices gained ground last week as the surge in coronavirus pandemic in India raised safe haven demand. Traders signaficantly increased bets on high gold and silver prices last week.
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended May 11, NET LENGTH for crude oil...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Higher CAD Increased Markedly
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended May 11, NET LENGTH of USD index futures added +368 contracts to 2 423. Speculative long positions gained +5 095 contracts while shorts were up +4 727 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures...
Dollar Down, Futures Pare Gain after Poor US Retail Sales
Dollar is under selling pressure against after rather poor retail sales data. US futures also pare back some earlier gains and look vulnerable. Yen is currently following the greenback as the second weakest, while commodity currencies are the strongest, together with Euro. The question now is, whether Dollar's decline...
Rate and Crude Oil Price to Support CAD Outlook
Year-to-date, Canadian dollar is the best performing currency against US dollar. Indeed, most of the gains has been accumulated after the April BOC meeting, at which policymakers announced QE tapering and hinted about rate hike in as soon as next year. Despite recent disappointment in macroeconomic data, we expect...
Sentiment Further Stabilized as Focus Turns to US Retail Sales
The forex markets are steady in Asian session today as sentiment stabilized, following strong rebound in US stocks overnight. Dollar is currently the second strongest for the week, just next to Sterling. But no key level was taken out with the rebound in the last few days. The greenback...
US Data Show Strong Inflation, Improving Job Market, Sentiment Stabilizing
Overall market sentiment stabilizes mildly entering into US session. Major European indexes pared back much of earlier losses, while US futures also turned positive. Even though US PPI showed stronger than expected reading, slightly better than expected jobless claims is support sentiment, in a way. Dollar attempt to extend...
Prolonged Outage in US Gasoline Pipeline Could Pressure Crude Oil Price
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks gained +3.89 mmb to 1283.82 mmb in the week ended May 7. Crude oil inventory dropped -0.43 mmb (consensus: -2.82 mmb) to 484.69 mmb. Stockpile declined in 2 out...
Inflation Fear Prompted Selloff in Bonds and Stocks, Dollar Extending Recovery
Extremely higher volatility was seen in the markets overnight, with the steep decline in stocks and rally in yields. Bitcoin also had a free fall. Negative sentiments continue in Asia with major indexes trading in deep red. In the currency markets, Australia and New Zealand Dollars are under most...
Dollar Spikes Higher after Strong Inflation, But No Follow Through Buying Yet
Dollar rebound strongly in early US session after much stronger than expected consumer inflation data. But Canadian Dollar is even stronger with help from extended rebound in oil price. Sterling is the third strongest, as supported by stronger than expected GDP. On the other hand, New Zealand and Australian...