Swiss Franc, Dollar, and Yen Jumped on Falling Global Benchmark Yields
The intra-week rebound in global benchmark treasury yields was rather short-lived. Yields in Germany, US and Japan then turned south after ECB's decision on PEPP purchases. That came even though CPI jumped to 13-year high. It remains to be seen of investors are giving a strong node to central...
Dollar Rises ahead of Weekend, Sterling Firm after GDP
Notable buying is seen in Dollar as markets enter into US session. There is no apparent reason for the rally, except that some traders could be adjusting positions ahead of the high profile G7 summit. Resilience in the Swiss Franc is affirm this pre-emptive risk aversion. Meanwhile, Sterling is...
Swiss Franc Firm as Focus Turns to Sterling
Swiss Franc is generally firm as weekend approaches. Even though there was no follow through buying in Euro after ECB overnight, the common currency is somewhat support mildly by the strength in the Franc. Meanwhile, Yen's selloff faded quickly, together with the rebound attempt in treasury yields. Dollar, Canadian...
ECB Upgrades GDP Growth and Inflation Forecasts, Refrains from Talking about Taper
The ECB meeting contains little surprise. On economic developments, despite the notion that recent rise in inflation has been driven by temporary factors, the staff upgraded headline inflation projections sharply for this year and 2022. All monetary policy measures stay unchanged. Obviously, policymakers avoided to mention about “taper”, amidst...
Muted Reactions to ECB and US CPI, Yen Lower Following Yield Rebound
There are heavy weights event for Euro and Dollar today, but reactions are so far mild. ECB said it will continue the PEPP purchases at "significantly higher" pace in Q3. Yet, it also upgraded both growth in and inflation forecast for this year and next. Dollar shrug off very...
Euro Softens ahead of ECB, US CPI also Featured
Euro softens broadly today as markets await ECB policy decision. Traders appear to be position for a dovish, or at least cautious, ECB press conference. Nevertheless, Sterling and Dollar are also soft, indicating that the markets are not one sided yet. Meanwhile, commodity currencies are trading mildly firmer today,...
BOC Drew Attention to Rise in Core Inflation
BOC remained positive about the economic outlook despite recent softer data. The members viewed that weakness in the job market was temporary. Meanwhile, they were more attentive to the rise in core inflation. We believe the plan of QE tapering remains intact while the central bank is still on...
Gasoline and Distillate Inventories Built on Sharp Fall in Demand
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks soared +15.47 mmb to 1293.31 mmb in the week ended May 28. Crude oil inventory plunged -5.24 mmb (consensus: -2.04 mmb) to 474.03 mmb. Stockpile decreased in 2 out...
Subdued Trading Continues While Treasury Yields Fall
Major pairs and crosses are bounded inside yesterday's range so far, as quiet trading continues. Dollar is mildly lower but loss is very limited, while Swiss Franc might be picking up some buying again. Stock markets are also treading water in very tight range. Nevertheless, notable weakness is seen...
Canadian Dollar Leading Commodity Currencies Lower, BoC Next
Global financial markets are generally treading water this week so far. Trading in the forex markets is also subdued. Canadian Dollar is currently leading other commodity currencies lower, awaiting BoC policy decision today. On the other hand, Swiss Franc is the strongest one, lifting Euro higher too. In other...
ECB Preview – Extending Current Pace of PEPP Purchases for 3 More Months
The focus of this week’s ECB meeting is the outlook of PEPP purchases in the second half of the year. Although the Eurozone’s economy has improved, while the vaccination progress has accelerated, since the last meeting, we expect policymakers to maintain the current pace of purchases for another 3...
Swiss Franc Rises Broadly, Sterling Weakens
Swiss Franc jumps broadly in otherwise quiet markets today. Canadian Dollar is second strongest, then Dollar, but both are staying inside yesterday's ranges. Sterling is currently the worst performing one, followed by New Zealand Dollar and then Yen. But the selling in the two are far from being clear....
Dollar Recovers After Failing Downside Breakout, Overall Trading Subdued
Trading continue to be relatively subdued this week so far. While Dollar weakened overnight, losses were very limited. The greenback is indeed recovering mildly in Asian session. Australian Dollar also received little lift from strong business conditions data. Gold breached 1900 handle, but lacks the conviction to extend near...
Yen Stronger With Aussie and Kiwi in Mixed Trading
The financial markets continue to be relatively mixed entering into US session. Aussie and Kiwi are currently the strongest one, together with Yen. On the other hand, Dollar and Euro are the weakest ones, together with Loonie. European indexes are trading mildly higher but upside is limited. Gold and...
BOC Preview – Policymakers to Keep Upbeat Tone Despite Softening Growth
We expect the BOC to maintain its relatively hawkish outlook at this week’s meeting. Although economic data released since April have softened slightly, strong oil prices and the positive vaccination progress should allow the members to stay optimistic about the recovery outlook. They would also maintain the monetary policy...
Dollar Consolidating Losses, But No Momentum for Recovery
Markets are mixed in a quiet Asian session today, with little reaction to China's trade data. Dollar is consolidating last week's late lost but there is no apparent momentum for a rebound. On the other hand, Yen is mildly higher on sluggish stock markets in the region. Gold is...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Continued to Bet Higher Loonie as Driven by Crude Oil’s Rally
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended June 1, NET LENGTH of USD index futures added +183 contracts to 2 963. Speculative long positions rose +2 724 contracts while shorts increased +2541 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures gained +5...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Higher Crude Oil Prices Jumped Last
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended June 1, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures jumped +15 807 contracts to 491 297 for the week. Speculative long position rose +13 067 contracts, while shorts dropped -2 740 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
Aussie Ready to Turn Around after Late Rebound?
Dollar was in a pole position to end as the strong one but was the unfortunately knocked down by solid, but disappointing non-farm payroll report. The data did nothing to alter the base position of Fed officials that, it's only time to talk about talking about tapering for now....
Dollar Fades after Another NFP Miss, US Futures Up
Dollar drops notably in early US session after another NFP miss. It has now reversed all of yesterday's late gains. Canadian Dollar also turns softer after weaker than expectation job data. On the other hand, other commodity currencies strengthen mildly. In other markets, US future turn up on expectation...