Dollar Down, Futures Pare Gain after Poor US Retail Sales
Dollar is under selling pressure against after rather poor retail sales data. US futures also pare back some earlier gains and look vulnerable. Yen is currently following the greenback as the second weakest, while commodity currencies are the strongest, together with Euro. The question now is, whether Dollar's decline...
Rate and Crude Oil Price to Support CAD Outlook
Year-to-date, Canadian dollar is the best performing currency against US dollar. Indeed, most of the gains has been accumulated after the April BOC meeting, at which policymakers announced QE tapering and hinted about rate hike in as soon as next year. Despite recent disappointment in macroeconomic data, we expect...
Sentiment Further Stabilized as Focus Turns to US Retail Sales
The forex markets are steady in Asian session today as sentiment stabilized, following strong rebound in US stocks overnight. Dollar is currently the second strongest for the week, just next to Sterling. But no key level was taken out with the rebound in the last few days. The greenback...
US Data Show Strong Inflation, Improving Job Market, Sentiment Stabilizing
Overall market sentiment stabilizes mildly entering into US session. Major European indexes pared back much of earlier losses, while US futures also turned positive. Even though US PPI showed stronger than expected reading, slightly better than expected jobless claims is support sentiment, in a way. Dollar attempt to extend...
Prolonged Outage in US Gasoline Pipeline Could Pressure Crude Oil Price
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks gained +3.89 mmb to 1283.82 mmb in the week ended May 7. Crude oil inventory dropped -0.43 mmb (consensus: -2.82 mmb) to 484.69 mmb. Stockpile declined in 2 out...
Inflation Fear Prompted Selloff in Bonds and Stocks, Dollar Extending Recovery
Extremely higher volatility was seen in the markets overnight, with the steep decline in stocks and rally in yields. Bitcoin also had a free fall. Negative sentiments continue in Asia with major indexes trading in deep red. In the currency markets, Australia and New Zealand Dollars are under most...
Dollar Spikes Higher after Strong Inflation, But No Follow Through Buying Yet
Dollar rebound strongly in early US session after much stronger than expected consumer inflation data. But Canadian Dollar is even stronger with help from extended rebound in oil price. Sterling is the third strongest, as supported by stronger than expected GDP. On the other hand, New Zealand and Australian...
Upside in Crude Oil Prices Limited as OPEC+ is Prone to Ramp Up Output
Oil output from OPEC-10 and the nine non-OPEC producers joined the “output-cut” deal increased to 34.43M bpd in April, up from 34.26M bpd a month ago. The total compliance level slipped -0.2 ppt to 111%. Saudi Arabia’s voluntary cut of 1M bpd continued to contribute significantly to overall compliance....
Dollar Recovers But Not Turning Around Yet, Sterling Firm
Dollar recovers broadly today even though Fed officials sung a chorus emphasizing patience in monetary policy. Canadian Dollar is also firm with help from rebound in oil prices. On the other hand, Australian Dollar is trading generally lower together with Kiwi. Nevertheless, for the week so far, Sterling remains...
Euro Up on Strong Economic Sentiment, Global Stocks in Deep Red
Tech led global equities selloff is a major theme today, spreading from Asia to Europe to the US. In the background, there seems to be heightened concerns on inflation over surging commodity prices. European indexes are all in deep red while NASDAQ future is down another -1.6%. The reactions...
Asian Stocks in Deep Selloff, But Yen and Dollar Remain Weak
While US stocks hit another record high overnight, the path reversed with the three major indexes closing lower, with particular heavy selling in NASDAQ. Bearish sentiment continues in Asia session today, with Nikkei and Hong Kong HSI in deep red. Reactions in currency markets are mild, however, with commodity...
Sterling Extends Rally, Yen Diving Continues, Euro Down on ECB Comments
Sterling rises strongly today, and overpowers Australia and New Zealand Dollar. On the other hand, Yen's selloff continues while Dollar is following closely behind. Despite strong investor confidence data, Euro is indeed under heavy selling pressure against the Pound and Aussie. Comments from ECB chief economist Philip Lane suggests...
Copper Price Soars to New Record. Supply is Unlikely to Keep Pace with Demand as Major Economies Shift to Green Energy
The recent rally in copper price has been driven by potential supply deficit in coming years. Stimulus measures rolled by major economies, such as the US, the UK and China, have put strong focus on green energy. Developments of which are expected to significantly raise demand for copper. Meanwhile,...
Yen Broadly Lower, Sterling Rises, as a Relatively Light Week Starts
Dollar stabilizes mildly as another week starts, as selling focus temporarily turns to Yen. Both are weak nonetheless and stay near term bearish as least. Meanwhile, Sterling is trading slightly stronger in Asian session with help from recovery in crosses against Euro and Swiss Franc. But commodity currencies, as...
Dollar Tumbled Broadly, Stocks Hit Record, as Data Affirmed Fed’s Patient Approach
Dollar dropped broadly last week and ended sharply lower, as the huge non-farm payroll miss gave a strong node to Fed's patient approach. Progress could only be consider substantial as seen in realized economic data, rather than projected outlook. It's right that Fed is not even in a position...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Bet on Higher Crude Oil Prices
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended May 4, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures soared +10 302 contracts to 500 013 for the week. Speculative long position gained +8 377 contracts, while shorts declined -1 925 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Bets on USD Index Futures
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended May 4, NET LENGTH of USD index futures dropped -691 contracts to 2 055. Speculative long positions dropped -1 836 contracts while shorts were down -1 145 contracts. Net longs could trim further in the coming...
Dollar Dives on Huge NFP Miss, European Majors Jump
Dollar dives sharply in early US session after huge employment data miss. Canadian Dollar is slightly weaker, also on job data disappointment. Euro and Swiss Franc are quick to jump on assaulting the greenback. But Yen is not too far behind, as stocks could be under some pressure after...
China’s Growth Momentum Accelerates Further in Second Quarter, as Shown in Latest PMI and Trade Data
The latest data suggests that China’s economy continues to improve in the second quarter. The Markit/Caixin services PMI increased to 56.3 in April, highest since December 2020. The reading also beat consensus of 54.2 and March’s 54.3. Separately, China's trade surplus tripled in April, compared with a month ago.
Markit/Caixin...
DOW Hit Record, Dollar Sold off, Focus Turns to Non-Farm Payrolls
Return of risk-appetite pushed DOW to new record overnight while Asian markets also firm up. Dollar was under some selling pressure, but it's still kept in range against except versus Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar. Focus will turn to non-farm payroll report from today. A strong set of data...