CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Crude Oil Trimmed on Renewed Inventory Build-Up
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended July 7, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures plunged -17 850 contracts to 686 543 for the week. Speculative long positions fell -17 850 contracts while shorts dropped -9 341 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
Upside in Crude Oil Prices Limited: OPEC+ Cut Prone to Ease Next Month while US Inventory Gained on Imports
The rise in oil prices paused while hovering at recent highs. While there are signs that OPEC+ has cut output more than promised, the increase in US inventory has again raised concerns about oversupply. S&P's survey suggests that OPEC-10 as a whole reduced output aggressively in June. The aggregate...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Higher Energy Prices Dropped Across the Board
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended June 30, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures plunged -17 057 contracts to 543 826 for the week. Speculative long positions dropped -6 864 contracts while shorts rose +10 193 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
US Crude Inventory Saw Biggest Decline since Early January
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks added +1.12 mmb to 1451.78 mmb in the week ended June 26. Crude oil inventory plunged -7.2 mmb (consensus: -0.71 mmb) to 533.53 mmb. The size of the fall...
Another Week Of US Stock-build Dampened Crude Oil Price
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks rose +7.09 mmb to 1446.72 mmb in the week ended June 19. Crude oil inventory added +1.44 mmb (consensus: +0.3 mmb) to 540.72 mmb. Stockpile rose in 3 out...
Gold’s Rally Set to Resume, Supported by Low Yield, Geopolitics and Second Virus Wave
Gold price has gained +2.6% since our last update. Less than $1/oz shy of the all-time high, it is likely that yellow metal's rally will resume very soon. Indeed, expansionary monetary policy, renewed geopolitical tensions in Asia (between North and South Korea, and between India and China, and concerns...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Bets on Crude Oil as Price Climbed to 3-Month High
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended June 16, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures plunged -21 637 contracts to 546 272 for the week. Speculative long positions declined -26 451 contracts while shorts dropped -4 814 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH for...
US Crude Inventory Surprisingly Increased, while Petroleum Product Stocks Declined
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks rose +7.09 mmb to 1446.72 mmb in the week ended June 12. Crude oil inventory added +1.22 mmb (consensus: -0.15 mmb) to 538.07 mmb. Stockpile fell in 2 out...
Downside Risks of Crude OIl Price Rising Despite Recent Optimism
Crude oil prices have remained firm, supported by positive news from both OPEC+ and better demand/supply outlook. The latest monthly report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) has depicted a more optimistic outlook on the oil market. The agency raised its global oil demand forecast to 91.7M bpd for...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Renewed Coronavirus Concerns may Lead to New Rally in Gold
Gold price continued to consolidate at top range. As we mentioned in the previous report, the yellow metal will resume recent rally after pullback. Renewed concerns about third wave of coronavirus outbreak in the US and China are expected to drive demand for gold. This could lead to increase...
Pick-up in US Oil Inventory and OPEC+’s Compliance Problem have Capped Crude’s Upside
The excitement brought by OPEC+'s agreement to extend the output cut deal for a month to July short-lived. Crude oil price only climbed modestly higher after the news. Gains were quickly evaporated. Concerning OPEC+, the market is mainly concerned about compliance by some participants. A survey by S&P estimated...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Bet Higher Crude Oil Price, and Lower Gold Price, as Risk Appetite Returned
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended June 2, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures rose +25 756 contracts to 568 330 for the week. Speculative long positions soared +27 938 contracts while shorts added +2 182 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
US Oil Inventory Surprisingly Dropped
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks rose 5.04 mmb to 1399.92 mmb in the week ended May 29. Crude oil inventory dropped -2.08 mmb (consensus: +3.04 mmb) to 532.35 mmb. Stockpile fell in 3 out...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Took Profit on Gold after Failing to Break New High
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended May 26, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures dropped -1 029 contracts to 542 574 for the week. Speculative long positions gained +9 217 contracts while shorts jumped +10 246 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
US Crude Inventory and Imports Surprisingly Increased
Crude oil inventory in the US surprisingly increased last week. Meanwhile imports also jumped due to shipment from Saudi Arabia. Supply in the US was partly offset by further decline in domestic production. The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum...
Gold will Regain Momentum after Correction, Supported by Low Yield and US-China Tensions
We expect gold's rally to resume after correction. Although there are signs that the coronavirus pandemic is stabilizing, the recovery path of global economy remains thorn and gradual. Central banks around the world will have to maintain expansionary monetary policy, pressing interest rates to zero, if not negative. Meanwhile,...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Bet Precious Metals to Go Higher
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended May 19, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures added +2 584 contracts to 543 603 for the week. Speculative long positions declined -17 540 contracts while shorts slumped -20 124 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
Crude Oil Price Supported by Decline in US Inventory. Cushing Stock Recorded Sharpest Fall on History
Crude oil prices continued to climbed higher. The front-month WTI contract has strengthened for six consecutive days. The latest catalyst is another week of surprising decline in US inventory. The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks...
Crude Oil Price Supported by Improved Fundamentals; Upside Limited
Expiring tomorrow (May 19), the front-month WTI crude contract continues to climb higher. At the time of writing this report, price is trading narrowly around US$30/bbl, up almost 50% from end of April. Recall that last month, the WTI futures for April delivery collapsed to the negative territory before...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Bets on Crude Oil, while Net Length on Gold Declined
Traders trimmed bets on crude oil futures. Although output cuts by OPEC+ and in the US have temporarily relieved storage, the outlook of the oil market remains uncertain. Macroeconomic data from major economies suggest that unemployment is rising. This could lead to demand disruption, and eventually cause selloff in...