Unexpected Decline in US Inventory Lent Support to Oil Price
The front-month WTI crude oil contract strengthened to the highest level in more than a month. The WTI-Brent spread also narrowed to the level not seen since March 31. The recovery in WTI crude price was helped by the unexpected decline in US oil inventory. The report from the...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET LENGTH in Crude Oil Futures Declined after Weeks of Price Recovery
WTI crude oil price continued to recover last week as increase in US inventory decelerated. The market also anticipated that demand would gradually improve amidst signs of stabilization in the coronavirus pandemic. However, caution is still warranted as storage at Cushing, the delivery point of WTI crude oil, is...
Crude Oil Price Recovers as US Stockbuild Slowed and OPEC+ Began Output Cut
Crude oil price continued to recover after the collapse two weeks ago. Slowdown in the build-up of oil inventory, hopes of demand improvement, and expectations of demand/supply re-balance as OPEC+ began output cut in May are key driving forces. The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET LENGTH on Crude Oil Increased on Bargain Hunting
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended April 30, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures added +2 208 contracts to 589 388 for the week. Speculative long positions gained +1 530 contracts while shorts dropped -678 contracts. While the front-month WTI crude contract rebounded ...
Crude Oil Selloff Could Resume in Weeks as Cushing Approaches Full Capacity
WTI crude oil price consolidated after the collapse in the previous week. Crude oil inventory continued to increase despite slowdown in pace. The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks rose +10.41 mmb to 1377.51 mmb in...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Bet Crude Oil Price to Rebound after Collapse
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended April 21, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures soared +76 511 contracts to 587 180 for the week. Speculative long positions jumped +35 774 contracts while shorts added -40 737 contracts. The WTI contract for May delivery...
Downside Risks on WTI Crude Oil Remain High as Inventory Continued to Build Rapidly
WTI crude oil for May delivery expired at US$10.01/bbl on Wednesday, following a collapse to the negative territory a day earlier. The June contract (front-month) settled at US$ 13.78/bbl on the day. Lack of storage remains a problem in the US as demand has been sharply lowered due to...
WTI Crude Oil Price Dived to Negative as Oversupply Sparks Concerns about Storage
A day ahead of expiration, WTI crude oil futures for May delivery slumped into the negative territory for the first time on history. Plunging by over 100%, the May contract slumped to as low as US$ -40.32/bbl before settling at -37.63. In Asian session today, the contract recovered to...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Signs of Bargain-Hunting Emerged as Crude Oil Price Slumped to Two Decades’ Low
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended April 14, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures gained +25 774 contracts to 510 669 for the week. Speculative long positions jumped +44 703 contracts while shorts added +18 929 contracts. Traders bet high crude oil prices...
Oil Price Slumped as Demand Expected to Fall the Most in 25 Years; US Inventory Continued to Soar
Oil prices slumped amidst concerns of oversupply. The market expects that the coordinated cuts announced last week, even if implemented smoothly, will fail to offset the severe contraction in demand. The latest report by International Energy Agency (IEA) suggested that global demand will fall to the lowest level in...
OPEC+ Deal on Output Cut Unlikely Helps Reduce Surplus. Downside Risk on Oil Price Remains
OPEC+ eventually agreed on a final deal to reduce oil production by -10M bpd. Despite the significant headline figure, the effective cut is much lower. Actual output cut, late start and compliance issues suggest that the deal should not offer much help to the demand/supply balance in the oil...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Recovery on Oil Prices Fades on Failure to Agree on Coordinated Output Cut
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended April 7, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures surged + 49 787 contracts to 484 895 for the week. Speculative long positions jumped +31 374 contracts while shorts declined -18 413 contracts. Crude oil price recovered from...
US Crude Oil Inventory Made the Biggest Increase Since 2017
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks surged +21.04 mmb to 1286.82 mmb in the week ended April 3. Crude oil inventory soared +15.18 mmb (consensus: +9.27 mmb) to 484.37 mmb. Stockpile rose in ALL PADDs....
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Higher Oil Price Could Increase Temporary on Output Cut Speculations
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended March 31, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures dropped -905 contracts to 435 108 for the week. Speculative long positions rose +46 031 contracts while shorts jumped +46 936 contracts. Bets for higher crude oil prices could...
Oil Rally likely Short-lived as Coordinated Output Cut Could Take Long to Materialize
Crude oil prices rebounded yesterday, on speculations that Saudi Arabia and Russia might agree to cut output. Donald Trump noted on Twitter that he expects that Saudi Arabia and Russia will reduce oil production by “approximately 10M bpd, and maybe substantially more which, if it happens, will be GREAT...
US Oil Inventory Rose Sharply as Demand Plunged on Crisis
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks surged +21.04 mmb to 1286.82 mmb in the week ended March 27. Crude oil inventory soared +13.83 mmb (consensus: +4 mmb) to 469.19 mmb. Stockpile rose in ALL PADDs....
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Gold Price Resumed Rally while Crude Oil Fell to Almost Decade Low as Recession Risk Heightened
Bets on higher gold price increased as worsening coronavirus pandemic intensified concerns over global recession. On the other hand, traders increased bets on both higher and lower crude oil prices, but the latter prevailed. The front-month WTI crude contract slumped to lowest level since 2011 during the week. According...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Bets on Commodities amidst Rising Global Uncertainty
Bets on oil and precious metals futures fell across the board. According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended March 17, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures jumped +52 840 contracts to 440 237 for the week. Speculative long positions fell -14 748 contracts while...
Crude Oil Inventory Gained for Another Week as Recession Fear Trimmed Demand
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks slumped -7.68 mmb to 1263.33 mmb in the week ended March 13. Crude oil inventory gained +1.95 mmb (consensus: +3.26 mmb) to 453.74 mmb. Stockpile rose in 3 out...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET LENGTH on Crude Oil and Gold Slumped on Price Correction
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended March 10, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures dropped -972 contracts to 387 397 for the week. Speculative long positions jumped +23 663 contracts while shorts jumped -24 635 contracts. NET LENGTH should decline further in the...