Weekly Report
Yen Dominates as Market on Brink of International Banking Crisis
Last week, the world appeared to be on the brink of an international banking crisis. The situation might have stabilized with Silicon Valley Bank filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, First Republic Bank receiving aid in the form of deposits from major players, and Credit Suisse obtaining a CHF 50B...
Silicon Valley Bank’s Collapse Outweighs Interest Rate Developments
Last week, investors were caught off guard by a series of surprises. However, the largest bank failure in the US since 2008 proved to be the most overwhelming for them. The risks of contagion from Silicon Valley Bank appeared to outweigh concerns about higher interest rates, inflation, and recession....
Dollar Struggled on Resilient Risk Sentiment Despite Expectations of Higher Interest Rates
The likelihood of higher and sustained interest rates in the US and Europe is increasing as time goes on. This expectation has led to some volatility in risk markets, but the late rally in stocks indicates that sentiment remains resilient. Despite a rally in treasury yields, Dollar ended the...
Dollar Jumped on Fed Bets, Next Few Weeks Crucial
Dollar rose broadly last week and ended as the strongest one, as markets added bets on a higher Fed terminal rate after re-acceleration in inflation data. Sterling ended as second after strong services data, which also supported Euro, while Canadian was the third after higher than expected inflation reading....
Dollar Rose on Fed Expectations But Momentum Capped Again By Risk Sentiment
Dollar ended as the best performer last week, after data argued that the slow disinflation process could prompt Fed to tightening further to a higher terminal rate. Yet, buying remained rather uncommitted, as show in Friday's late pull back. Resilient risk sentiment continued to cap the greenback's upside, and...
Dollar Mixed Despite Bet on Fed Peaking at 6%
While the economic calendar was relatively light, the week was full of surprise. The biggest one was the big wagers that put on Fed interest rate peaking at 6%. Rumors and speculations about the next BoJ Governor triggered some volatility. Meanwhile, the blockbuster Canadian job data came in and...
Dollar Won on Strong Economic Data, Might Decouple from Risk Sentiment for a While
With the help from strong economic data, Dollar struck back to end as the strongest one, after a week full of heavy weight events. Traders might start to give up on fighting the Fed on the topic of terminal interest rate and the timing of a cut, given the...
Yen Down, Nikkei Up, Yield Curve Distortion Improved
BoJ and Davos were the major focuses of last week. Much volatility was seen in Nikkei, JGB yields, and Yen. As dusts settled, the Japanese currencies ended as the worst performer, but closed inside prior week's range. Australian Dollar was the next weakest after poor job data. Dollar was...
USD/JPY Dived on Fed and BoJ Expectations, More Downside But 120 Will Be a Bit Stretched
Dollar was sold off broadly last week as a 25bps rate hike by Fed in February is now pretty much a done deal, after CPI data. On the other hand, Yen staged a strong rally on speculations that BoJ is now much closer to exit of ultra-loose monetary policy....
Dollar Selling Re-emerged on Surprisingly Positive Risk Sentiment
Risk sentiment was surprisingly positive in the first week of the year. The stock markets ended on a high note after slowing wage growth in the US and faster cooling in Eurozone inflation. After some flip-flopping, Dollar selling re-emerged in the last session. It might take a week or...
U-turn in Risk Sentiment Following Hawkish Fed and ECB
Risk sentiment took a U-turn last week after more hawkish than expected FOMC projections and, more important, ECB forward guidance. Euro ended as the biggest winner for the week, trained by Swiss Franc, and the Dollar. Australian Dollar was the worst performer, followed by Sterling, and then Kiwi. Canadian...
CAD Down, AUD Resilient, USD Lackluster
Trading in the markets was rather subdued last week. Canadian Dollar was an exception, as it was pressured by falling oil price and a dovish BoC hike. The Loonie just closed marginally higher against Yen, which was also soft. On the other hand, Swiss Franc was the best performer,...
Yen Jumped as Fed Powell Knocked Down Dollar and Yields
The tone of the markets was well set by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's indication of smaller rate hike in the upcoming FOMC meeting. The biggest reactions were found in treasury yields, which decline was surprisingly steep. US stocks ended higher but upside momentum appeared to be diminishing.
Dollar was sold...
Dollar Down as Smaller Fed Hike Affirmed, But Downside Potential Limited
The expectations of a smaller Fed hike in December was affirmed by FOMC minutes last week. Dollar ended as the worst performer, following mild risk-on sentiment. Canadian Dollar was the second worst as dragged down by falling oil prices. Meanwhile, Euro was the third weakest suffering some selloff against...
Dollar Ready for a Rebound as Risk Rally Loses Momentum
The post-CPI selloff in Dollar and rally in US stocks faded last week, after Fed officials talked down the significance of just one data point. While the greenback still lacked momentum for sustainable recovery, selloff has at least slowed. The greenback ended the week mixed together with Euro.
On the...
Dollar Started Medium Term Correction, But Selling Might Start to Slow Soon
The set of lower than expected consumer inflation data from the US was music of joy for investors. Stocks surged while treasury yield tumbled, on expectation that Fed is ready to start slowing down tightening pace in December. Risk-on sentiment was broad-based with NASDAQ starting to realign with DOW,...
Rumor of China Reopening Overwhelmed Other Heavy Weight Events
The rumor of earlier reopening in China seemed to have overwhelmed other heavy weight events in the markets last week, including Fed's hawkish rate hike and non-farm payroll report. Late rally in stock markets helped commodity currencies secured the winning places, with New Zealand Dollar having an edge over...
Sterling Jumped on Political Stabilization, Dollar Lost Ground ahead of Fed
Dollar ended as the worst performer, followed by Yen and Swiss Franc. The US stock markets traded with risk-on sentiment, on talks that Fed would start slowing down tightening pace after one more 75bps hike. But it should be noted that such sentiment was not seen everywhere in the...
Yen Rebounded after Japan Played Intervention Game Beautifully
It's a week of drama. In the UK, Liz Truss became the shortest-serving Prime Minister as political chaos continued, and the race for the next PM started immediately. In the US, stocks surged on Friday on talks that Fed could start slowing its rate hikes in December. Meanwhile, in...
USD/JPY Closing in 150 as Traders Pricing in Two More 75bps Fed Hike This Year
There were so many important headlines last week. USD/JPY surged to new 32-year high with support from stronger than expected CPI, and as 10-year yield broke 4% handle. Japan maintained their stance that they will act resolutely on market volatility, without actual intervention. DOW staged a historic 1500pts U-turn...