Weekly Report
Stocks at New Record, Dollar Plummeted, Aussie Turning Around
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium didn't disappoint. He did what the markets expected, affirming the openness for beginning tapering this year, without indicating the need for an imminent start. Just as Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker described, Powell laid out where the center of...
Sentiments Deteriorated on Delta, China and Fed Tapering
Overall market sentiments deteriorated notably last week, with concerns over the swift spread of Delta variant and return to lockdowns, Fed's tapering and slowdown in China. A softening tone from a Fed hawk on tapering gave sentiment a late lift, but it remained to bee seen if that could...
Slowing Core Inflation, Deteriorating Consumer Sentiment, and Split Fed
It's all about the consumers. After slowing core inflation and sharp deterioration in sentiment, Dollar took a steep dive towards the end of the week. Markets are suddenly less sure about a tapering announcement by Fed in September, not to mention anything concrete from Jackson Hole symposium later in...
Dollar Turned Around While Tapering Talks Heated Up Again
Dollar soared towards the end of the week as the stellar job report should give Fed much confidence to start tapering later in the year. Reactions from stock markets and yields were also positive, with DOW and S&P closing at new records while 10-year yield rebounded. Together with the...
More Downside for Dollar and Aussie, Swiss Franc Outperforms
Dollar's selloff caught much attention last week, but slowed towards the end. Traders are holding their bets for now, awaiting the coming batch of July data. Indeed, Australian Dollar was the worst performer, mainly on RBA QE expectations, and partly on risk aversion in China and Hong Kong. New...
Stocks Closed at Records as Delta Worries Receded, Dollar Index Holding On to Weak Rally
It has been a very volatile week as risk markets were initial knocked down by fear of the infectious delta variant. But sentiment made an about-turn then, even with US indexes closing at record highs. Still, despite late recovery, Australian Dollar ended as the weakest one. Yen was surprisingly...
NZD Surged But Couldn’t Overcome Resilient Dollar and Yen
New Zealand Dollar ended as the strongest one last week, boosted by hawkish expectation on RBNZ. Though, the Kiwi's strength didn't provide much support to other commodity currencies, as Aussie and Loonie were indeed the worst performing ones. Yen and Dollar followed Kiwi as the next strongest, while European...
Dollar and Yen Could Turn Weaker Again as Risk Bulls Didn’t Give Up
Market bears had multiple chances to probe a bearish reversal last week, riding on talks like Fed's tapering, spread of Delta variants, and China's crackdown on its own technology stocks, as well as foreign IPOs. Yet, the optimists just refused to give up and pushed US indexes to new...
Focus Might Turns to Euro Selling While Dollar Rally Capped by Strong Risk Appetite
Dollar ended as the strongest one last week but Friday's steel fall after solid non-farm payroll job reports suggests that it's rally is already losing steam. It's still a bit early to call a bearish reversal for the greenback. Yet, strong risk-on sentiments could cap Dollar's upside attempts ahead,...
Yen and Dollar Drops on Return on Risk Appetite, Sterling Looking Technically Vulnerable
Yen and Dollar ended the week as the worst performing ones, as US stock markets came back with strong rally. Risk-on sentiments pushed commodity currencies broadly higher. Yet, Yen crosses are also held below recent highs despite the rebounds. Dollar's pull back was also relatively weak. Some more time...
Dollar Solidified Strong Near Term Rally, But Not in Long Term Reversal Yet
Dollar ended last week sharply higher as boosted by the surprisingly hawkish FOMC projections. Yen followed as second strongest on steep selloff in stocks, while Euro is a distant third. Commodity currencies were the worst performers, with Aussie leading the way, followed by New Zealand Dollar. Though, Swiss Franc...
Swiss Franc, Dollar, and Yen Jumped on Falling Global Benchmark Yields
The intra-week rebound in global benchmark treasury yields was rather short-lived. Yields in Germany, US and Japan then turned south after ECB's decision on PEPP purchases. That came even though CPI jumped to 13-year high. It remains to be seen of investors are giving a strong node to central...
Aussie Ready to Turn Around after Late Rebound?
Dollar was in a pole position to end as the strong one but was the unfortunately knocked down by solid, but disappointing non-farm payroll report. The data did nothing to alter the base position of Fed officials that, it's only time to talk about talking about tapering for now....
Yen Committed to a Direction, While Others Not… Yet
Overall, the markets in the last full trading week of May was rather mixed. New Zealand Dollar surged initially after hawkish RBNZ. But it failed to extend much gain from there, even though it still ended as the strongest. It looked like Dollar was ready to turn around after...
Swiss Franc Ended as Strongest, Aussie as Weakest, But Bitcoin Stole the Show
While Fed minutes started to prepare the markets for discussion on tapering in the coming months, Dollar wasn't give much support. It has indeed ended as one of the worst performers for the week, just next too New Zealand and Australian Dollar. On the other hand, Swiss Franc and...
Stocks Stayed in Up Trend, Yields Range Bound, Dollar Lost Downside Momentum
Market debates heated up last week with the influx of some US economic data. On the other hand, the concerns on overheating inflation was legitimate given the much stronger than expected headline and core CPI reading from the US. On the other hand, poor retail sales, and prior week's...
Dollar Tumbled Broadly, Stocks Hit Record, as Data Affirmed Fed’s Patient Approach
Dollar dropped broadly last week and ended sharply lower, as the huge non-farm payroll miss gave a strong node to Fed's patient approach. Progress could only be consider substantial as seen in realized economic data, rather than projected outlook. It's right that Fed is not even in a position...
Canadian Dollar Rally to Continue after a Strong Week, But Medium Term Strength Uncertain
Canadian Dollar ended last week as the strongest ones on a couple of factors. With some near term resistance taken out, such rally will likely continue for the near term. Swiss Franc ended as the second strongest. While Dollar was pressured for most of the week, it staged a...
Dollar’s Near Term Bearishness Persists, Other Currencies Mixed
Dollar ended as the worst performing one last week as near term bearishness persisted. Q1's rebound should have completed and the main question is whether it's ready for new lows. That is, indeed, in favor unless overall risk-off sentiments were choked off by some unexpected events.
The forex markets were...
Pull Back in Treasury Yields Boosted Stocks to New Record, Dollar Set Up for More Downside
Dollar tumbled broadly again as falling treasury yield pushed US and German stocks to new record highs. Near term trend in the greenback should have reversed, but it's unsure whether it's ready for medium term down trend resumption yet. At least, EUR/USD will have to break through 1.2 handle...