Weekly Report
Rising Oil and Yields, Falling Stocks, Stronger Dollar Ahead
After a brief recovery, risk sentiment turned sour again towards the end of the week. Solid data from the US that solidify expectation for continuous aggressive Fed actions was a factor. Strong rebound in oil price also raised concern of a second wave in inflation. The overall development suggests...
Risk-off Sentiment to Continue, But the Worst is Behind Sterling
Sterling surprisingly ended as the best performer last week, as it staged an impressive U-turn after initial selloff. BoE's intervention should have saved the Pound for now. The development also helped Euro rebound while Dollar trailed behind as third. Rally in Dollar looked a bit exhausted as it failed...
Sterling Nose-Dived, Dollar Skyrocketed, Yen Saved by Intervention
It's such a week of surprises. The biggest one was probably the free fall in Sterling, as markets reaction to the "mini-budget" of the new UK government was overwhelmingly negative. Commodity currencies and Euro were also pressured on risk aversion.
Dollar emerged as the strongest one after hawkish Fed hike,...
Dollar Jumped on Expectations of 75bps Fed Hike, Sterling and Franc Look to Rate Decisions Too
The stronger than expected consumer inflation data from the US basically sealed the case for a 75bps hike by Fed next. Dollar ended as the strongest one last week, as supported by risk aversion too. But the greenback could only close above prior week's high against Canadian and New...
Dollar Rally Halted, Swiss Franc Outshone Euro
Euro ended the week broadly higher, with help from ECB's historical rate hike. Yet, it was outshone by Swiss Franc, which was the biggest winner after SNB reiterated the stance of welcoming Franc's appreciation. Canadian Dollar followed as the third, also after another massive hike by BoC.
On the other...
Dollar and Euro as Joint Winner, Risk Aversion Intensified
Dollar and Euro ended as double winners of the week. The greenback was boosted by solid economic data from the US, including non-farm payrolls, risk aversion, and rising yields. On the other hand, ECB policy makers were singing a hawkish chorus which prompted expectation of a 75bps rate hike...
Fed Powell Brought Risk Aversion Back, Dollar Ready for More Upside
In terms of prompting market volatility, Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn't disappoint. Stocks suffered steep selloff after his Jackson Speech. While Australian Dollar was still at top of the chart, most of its earlier gains evaded on Friday, and looks set to weaken further in the near term. Dollar...
Dollar Rally Rejuvenated as Risk-on Sentiment Lost Steam, Yields Jumped
Dollar ended as the strongest one, closing notably higher against all other major currencies, as risk-on sentiment lost steam while treasury yields surged. The late momentum was rather impressive and argues that the greenback might be ready for breakouts. While Canadian Dollar ended as the second strongest, it's Swiss...
Downside Breakouts in Euro and Sterling Crosses to Overshadow Dollar Volatility
Expectations on the size of next Fed rate hike shifted again last week, with stocks cheering lower than expected consumer inflation reading in the US. Dollar ended as the worst performer but it did have a late come back following rebound in benchmark treasury yields. Indeed, it was the...
Dollar Rose, Yen Fell as Traders Adjusted Bet on Fed Hikes
The strong set of job market data seemed to have cleared much concern over recession in the US, and set the tone for the financial markets. Benchmark treasury yields jumped as traders added bets on Fed continuing with the current pace of tightening beyond neutral. Stocks markets were resiliently...
Yen Overwhelmed Dollar on Falling Benchmark Yields
Dollar ended broadly lower last week, as the worst performer, as hammered by the events of FOMC meeting and GDP release. In short, Fed chair has signalled slower tightening pace ahead and the message was reinforced by another quarterly GDP contraction print. Whether the US was already in recession...
Yield Curve Inversion and Recession Risks, Dollar the Worst Performer of the Week
Dollar ended as the worst performing one last week. Selloff somewhat intensified on Friday after poor PMIs indicated that the US economy was already in contraction. Deep fall in benchmark treasury yields dragged down the greenback while traders were betting on a lower terminal rate in Fed's tightening cycle....
Risk of Dollar Pull Back Growing, After Breaching Parity With Euro
Dollar was the strongest one for most part of the week, and even breached parity against Euro. But the greenback pared gains on late turn in market sentiment, and ended as the second best only. Swiss Franc was surprisingly the best performer, while Kiwi was the third. Yen was...
Euro Down on Recession Worries, Could Parity Against Dollar Provide Support for Long?
Euro ended as the worst performer last week on increasing worries of a deeper and longer recession. Selloff in the common currency also dragged down Swiss Franc, which ended as the second worst.
Sterling was originally pressured by stabilized after UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced to step down after...
Aussie Dived But a Bottom Around the Corner?
Extending fall in commodity prices and recession fears were the main theme in the markets last week. Australian Dollar ended as the worst performer, followed by New Zealand Dollar, and then Sterling. However, Canadian Dollar was surprisingly the strongest one, partly helped by resilient oil prices.
Meanwhile, extended pull back...
Falling Commodity Prices Support Sentiment, Dollar Downside Risk Increasing
The forex markets were rather mixed last week. Yen ended as the worst performer, but Swiss Franc was the best. Canadian Dollar rose against all but Franc, while Aussie and Kiwi were weak. Euro was mixed together with Sterling wile Dollar was ended lower against all but Yen and...
Markets Reacted Negatively to Rate Hikes, Franc and Dollar Shone
Net reactions of the global markets to Fed's 75bps rate hike were rather negative. Global stocks ended generally lower after initial recovery. Additionally, SNB delivered a surprised 50bps rate hike while BoE's 25bps had a hawkish undertone with three members wanted more. BoJ stayed calm and kept interest rate...
Stagflation Worries Pushed Dollar and Yield Higher, Stocks Lower
Worries of stagflation intensified a whole lot last week. In particular, even the habitually cautious ECB pre-committed to rate hikes in July and September, while delivering new economic forecasts with sharply higher inflation and lower growth projections. Selloff in risk markets accelerated further after US CPI re-accelerated to new...
Yen Bearishness Persists on Rising Yields, Loonie Strong on BoC and Oil
It's another poor week for Yen following the rally in benchmark treasury yields in US and Europe. It should be noted again that BoJ has a 0.25% cap on 10-year JGB yield, and thus, gaps are widening. Sterling was a distant second weakest, on risks of stagflation while Swiss...
Dollar Extended Correction as Stocks Rebound Finally Started
Dollar's correction continued last week and ended as the worst performer. Late rebound in stocks and extended correction in treasury yields are both weighing on the greenback. Yen followed as the second weakest, mainly on risk-on sentiment.
On the other hand, Kiwi was the best performer, additionally lifted by hawkish...