Weekly Report
Falling Commodity Prices Support Sentiment, Dollar Downside Risk Increasing
The forex markets were rather mixed last week. Yen ended as the worst performer, but Swiss Franc was the best. Canadian Dollar rose against all but Franc, while Aussie and Kiwi were weak. Euro was mixed together with Sterling wile Dollar was ended lower against all but Yen and...
Markets Reacted Negatively to Rate Hikes, Franc and Dollar Shone
Net reactions of the global markets to Fed's 75bps rate hike were rather negative. Global stocks ended generally lower after initial recovery. Additionally, SNB delivered a surprised 50bps rate hike while BoE's 25bps had a hawkish undertone with three members wanted more. BoJ stayed calm and kept interest rate...
Stagflation Worries Pushed Dollar and Yield Higher, Stocks Lower
Worries of stagflation intensified a whole lot last week. In particular, even the habitually cautious ECB pre-committed to rate hikes in July and September, while delivering new economic forecasts with sharply higher inflation and lower growth projections. Selloff in risk markets accelerated further after US CPI re-accelerated to new...
Yen Bearishness Persists on Rising Yields, Loonie Strong on BoC and Oil
It's another poor week for Yen following the rally in benchmark treasury yields in US and Europe. It should be noted again that BoJ has a 0.25% cap on 10-year JGB yield, and thus, gaps are widening. Sterling was a distant second weakest, on risks of stagflation while Swiss...
Dollar Extended Correction as Stocks Rebound Finally Started
Dollar's correction continued last week and ended as the worst performer. Late rebound in stocks and extended correction in treasury yields are both weighing on the greenback. Yen followed as the second weakest, mainly on risk-on sentiment.
On the other hand, Kiwi was the best performer, additionally lifted by hawkish...
Swiss Franc Won the Week, But Aussie Could Jump on Turnaround Sentiment
It was another roller-coaster week. Swiss Franc ended as the strongest one after SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan surprisingly said it's ready to act if inflation solidified. But it should reminded that he reiterated the readiness on intervention too. Euro was somewhat pressured due to selling in crosses. Dollar, Canadian...
Euro Looking Increasingly Vulnerable, Overall Sentiment to Stabilize after Wild Rides
Extreme volatility was seen in the markets last week, in particular in the across the broad rout in cryptocurrencies. Stocks the tumbled sharp but stage a late come back. Gold and silver resumed recent decline. Yen ended as the best performer, helped by both risk aversion and pull back...
Traders Still Betting on 75bps Hike by Fed in June, Dollar Rally Capped
While RBA, Fed and BoE announced rate hikes last week, the impacts and reactions were rather delivered. RBA's larger than expected hike was well received and helped Aussie secured the first place, even though it pared back much gains on risk-aversion. On the other hand, BoE's announcement was considered...
Dollar Index Hit Two-Decade High as Focus Turns to Fed Hike
Dollar ended up as the strongest one last week, having the best week since 2015 and with Dollar index hitting a two-decade high. Though, the rally somewhat slowed towards the end of the week. It could be a result of month end flow or traders' cautiousness ahead of Fed....
Dollar Powered Up, Fed to Hike 50bps in May and 75bps in Jun?
Speculations on aggressive Fed tightening intensified sharply last week after a chorus of hawkish comments from policy markets. Markets are indeed pricing in near 70% chance of federal funds rate at 1.50-1.75% by the end of first half, i.e., 125bps above current level. Stocks tumbled sharply towards the end,...
Dollar Ended Broadly Higher as 10-Yr Yield Hit 2.7
Dollar was initially mixed last week but buyers jumped in after FOMC minutes revealed the quantitative tightening plan. US benchmark treasury yields also surged to highest level since 2019. Both Canadian and Australian Dollars followed as second and third strongest. Aussie was boosted by RBA's hints on earlier rate...
Yield Curve Inversion, Stocks Rallied, Euro Rebounded
There were a couple of developments of last week to note. Firstly, US yield curve inverted for the first time since 2019. There is no reason to panic for the moment, but deeper inversion could set the tone in the risk markets ahead. Secondly, Euro ended as the strongest...
Yen Extended Down Trend as US 10-Yr Yield Hit 2.5, Euro Vulnerable Again
Yen was once again the runaway loser last week as global benchmark treasury yields, except JGB, surged. BoJ has clearly put a cap in 10-year JGB yield and the result is widening spread and persistent Yen selloff. Euro showing some renewed weakness but it's so far still range bound...
Yen Extended Down Trend on Rise in Yields and Rebound in Stocks
Yen's down trend continued last week and even accelerated against commodity currencies. Persistent rally in benchmark yields, rebound in stocks, and diverging central bank expectations are expected to weigh on Yen further. Meanwhile, expected rate hike by Fed and BoE didn't provide much support to Dollar and Sterling, as...
First Climax Reactions to Russia Invasion Done, USD/JPY Upside Breakout
The financial markets should have completed the first climax reaction to Russia to Ukraine. Both oil prices and gold spiked higher initially last week but pulled back since then. Stocks, in particular major European indexes, also staged a strong rebound after initial dive. Global benchmark treasury yields also rebounded.
In...
Euro, European Stocks and Yields in Free Fall as WW III is Near
Russia invasion of Ukraine continued last week and risk aversion intensified sharply after Russia's attempt to attack Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station. European stocks took a steep dive with benchmark yields. Oil prices surged to levels not seen in more than a decade. Gold was originally steady but staged a...
Roller Coaster Rides in Markets as Russia Invades Ukraine
The markets had a roller coaster ride on Russia's invasion of Ukraine last week. At the time of writing, Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands after three days of brutal attack by Russia. Wave of European leaders have start delivering supplies Ukraine while packages of sanctions were imposed, up to...
Indecisive Markets Awaited Clarity on Russia-Ukraine Situation, Euro Weakened
The markets were rather indecisive last week, as there is still no clarity on the Russia-Ukraine situation. The fall in benchmark treasury yields and rally in Gold suggest some risk-off undertone. But then, the selloff in equities was not very committed. Meanwhile, crude oil price gyrated in established range...
War Fear Overwhelmed Rate Hikes; Oil, Gold, Yen and Franc Surged
War or rate hikes, it's very clear that investors are worried about the former. Sentiment took a deep dive on Friday on worries over an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine. WTI crude oil surged to new 7-year high while Gold also soared before weekly close, while stocks took a...
Euro Flexes Muscle after ECB, Staging Broad-Based Bullish Reversal?
It was a week a surprises. While BoE delivered that a 25bps hike, four of the nine MPC members have indeed voted for a 50bps raise. However, there was no follow through buying as BoE indicated only "modest" tightening would follow. Also, the event was overshadowed by ECB's unexpected...