Weekly Report
Dollar Down as Smaller Fed Hike Affirmed, But Downside Potential Limited
The expectations of a smaller Fed hike in December was affirmed by FOMC minutes last week. Dollar ended as the worst performer, following mild risk-on sentiment. Canadian Dollar was the second worst as dragged down by falling oil prices. Meanwhile, Euro was the third weakest suffering some selloff against...
Dollar Ready for a Rebound as Risk Rally Loses Momentum
The post-CPI selloff in Dollar and rally in US stocks faded last week, after Fed officials talked down the significance of just one data point. While the greenback still lacked momentum for sustainable recovery, selloff has at least slowed. The greenback ended the week mixed together with Euro.
On the...
Dollar Started Medium Term Correction, But Selling Might Start to Slow Soon
The set of lower than expected consumer inflation data from the US was music of joy for investors. Stocks surged while treasury yield tumbled, on expectation that Fed is ready to start slowing down tightening pace in December. Risk-on sentiment was broad-based with NASDAQ starting to realign with DOW,...
Rumor of China Reopening Overwhelmed Other Heavy Weight Events
The rumor of earlier reopening in China seemed to have overwhelmed other heavy weight events in the markets last week, including Fed's hawkish rate hike and non-farm payroll report. Late rally in stock markets helped commodity currencies secured the winning places, with New Zealand Dollar having an edge over...
Sterling Jumped on Political Stabilization, Dollar Lost Ground ahead of Fed
Dollar ended as the worst performer, followed by Yen and Swiss Franc. The US stock markets traded with risk-on sentiment, on talks that Fed would start slowing down tightening pace after one more 75bps hike. But it should be noted that such sentiment was not seen everywhere in the...
Yen Rebounded after Japan Played Intervention Game Beautifully
It's a week of drama. In the UK, Liz Truss became the shortest-serving Prime Minister as political chaos continued, and the race for the next PM started immediately. In the US, stocks surged on Friday on talks that Fed could start slowing its rate hikes in December. Meanwhile, in...
USD/JPY Closing in 150 as Traders Pricing in Two More 75bps Fed Hike This Year
There were so many important headlines last week. USD/JPY surged to new 32-year high with support from stronger than expected CPI, and as 10-year yield broke 4% handle. Japan maintained their stance that they will act resolutely on market volatility, without actual intervention. DOW staged a historic 1500pts U-turn...
Rising Oil and Yields, Falling Stocks, Stronger Dollar Ahead
After a brief recovery, risk sentiment turned sour again towards the end of the week. Solid data from the US that solidify expectation for continuous aggressive Fed actions was a factor. Strong rebound in oil price also raised concern of a second wave in inflation. The overall development suggests...
Risk-off Sentiment to Continue, But the Worst is Behind Sterling
Sterling surprisingly ended as the best performer last week, as it staged an impressive U-turn after initial selloff. BoE's intervention should have saved the Pound for now. The development also helped Euro rebound while Dollar trailed behind as third. Rally in Dollar looked a bit exhausted as it failed...
Sterling Nose-Dived, Dollar Skyrocketed, Yen Saved by Intervention
It's such a week of surprises. The biggest one was probably the free fall in Sterling, as markets reaction to the "mini-budget" of the new UK government was overwhelmingly negative. Commodity currencies and Euro were also pressured on risk aversion.
Dollar emerged as the strongest one after hawkish Fed hike,...
Dollar Jumped on Expectations of 75bps Fed Hike, Sterling and Franc Look to Rate Decisions Too
The stronger than expected consumer inflation data from the US basically sealed the case for a 75bps hike by Fed next. Dollar ended as the strongest one last week, as supported by risk aversion too. But the greenback could only close above prior week's high against Canadian and New...
Dollar Rally Halted, Swiss Franc Outshone Euro
Euro ended the week broadly higher, with help from ECB's historical rate hike. Yet, it was outshone by Swiss Franc, which was the biggest winner after SNB reiterated the stance of welcoming Franc's appreciation. Canadian Dollar followed as the third, also after another massive hike by BoC.
On the other...
Dollar and Euro as Joint Winner, Risk Aversion Intensified
Dollar and Euro ended as double winners of the week. The greenback was boosted by solid economic data from the US, including non-farm payrolls, risk aversion, and rising yields. On the other hand, ECB policy makers were singing a hawkish chorus which prompted expectation of a 75bps rate hike...
Fed Powell Brought Risk Aversion Back, Dollar Ready for More Upside
In terms of prompting market volatility, Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn't disappoint. Stocks suffered steep selloff after his Jackson Speech. While Australian Dollar was still at top of the chart, most of its earlier gains evaded on Friday, and looks set to weaken further in the near term. Dollar...
Dollar Rally Rejuvenated as Risk-on Sentiment Lost Steam, Yields Jumped
Dollar ended as the strongest one, closing notably higher against all other major currencies, as risk-on sentiment lost steam while treasury yields surged. The late momentum was rather impressive and argues that the greenback might be ready for breakouts. While Canadian Dollar ended as the second strongest, it's Swiss...
Downside Breakouts in Euro and Sterling Crosses to Overshadow Dollar Volatility
Expectations on the size of next Fed rate hike shifted again last week, with stocks cheering lower than expected consumer inflation reading in the US. Dollar ended as the worst performer but it did have a late come back following rebound in benchmark treasury yields. Indeed, it was the...
Dollar Rose, Yen Fell as Traders Adjusted Bet on Fed Hikes
The strong set of job market data seemed to have cleared much concern over recession in the US, and set the tone for the financial markets. Benchmark treasury yields jumped as traders added bets on Fed continuing with the current pace of tightening beyond neutral. Stocks markets were resiliently...
Yen Overwhelmed Dollar on Falling Benchmark Yields
Dollar ended broadly lower last week, as the worst performer, as hammered by the events of FOMC meeting and GDP release. In short, Fed chair has signalled slower tightening pace ahead and the message was reinforced by another quarterly GDP contraction print. Whether the US was already in recession...
Yield Curve Inversion and Recession Risks, Dollar the Worst Performer of the Week
Dollar ended as the worst performing one last week. Selloff somewhat intensified on Friday after poor PMIs indicated that the US economy was already in contraction. Deep fall in benchmark treasury yields dragged down the greenback while traders were betting on a lower terminal rate in Fed's tightening cycle....
Risk of Dollar Pull Back Growing, After Breaching Parity With Euro
Dollar was the strongest one for most part of the week, and even breached parity against Euro. But the greenback pared gains on late turn in market sentiment, and ended as the second best only. Swiss Franc was surprisingly the best performer, while Kiwi was the third. Yen was...