Weekly Report
Market Turmoil Intensifies With Deepening Recession Fears
The financial markets were marked by significant turbulence this last week again, dominated by risk aversion. Evidence are surfacing that the US economy is heading for a recession, or even hard landing. Speculation is mounting that Fed might be compelled to implement aggressive rate cuts, totaling 75 basis points...
Multiple Themes Play Out in Turbulent Week, Yield Curve De-Inversion Most Significant
It was a highly volatile week which cannot be characterized by a single theme. Yen had a sharp and robust rally against all major currencies, continuing its rebound from the 38-year lows hit earlier this month, with market participants unwinding their long-held short positions. Alongside Yen, Swiss Franc and...
Shift in Risk Sentiment a Short-Lived Anomaly or Start of a Longer Correction?
Last week proved to be a whirlwind for global markets, marked by a series of shocking events—from the failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump last weekend, to the historic global tech outage that occurred on Friday that brought significant attention but surprisingly little reaction from the financial markets. Still,...
Dollar Plummets as Markets Brace for Double or Even Triple Fed Rate Cuts This Year
Dollar weakened broadly last weeks market expectations on Fed's policy path shifted dramatically. The June US CPI report continued the narrative painted by the previous week's Non-Farm Payroll data, both suggesting further cooling in economic activity and easing price pressures. These developments have firmly positioned a September Federal Reserve...
Pound Outshines as Dollar Sinks, Yen Stabilizing
The past week marked a significant downturn for Dollar, which found itself at the bottom of the currency performance chart. A slew of unfavorable economic reports has highlighted the tangible effects of sustained high interest rates on the American economy, fostering a growing consensus that Fed may begin to...
Yen Hits Multi-Decade Lows, Euro Bounces Back, Dollar Remains Indecisive
Yen remained in the spotlight last week, dominating headlines even as some significant global inflation data also moved markets. The Japanese currency continued its downtrend, reaching multi-decade lows. Despite the prolonged decline, Japanese authorities refrained from intervening directly in the markets. However, the looming threat of intervention kept traders...
Yen’s Plunge Puts Japan’s Intervention Resolve Under Scrutiny
Yen ended as the runaway loser last week as its decline reaccelerated towards the end. With the crucial 160 level against Dollar now within reach, market participants are keenly watching to see if Japan will intervene soon to prop up the Yen, or just let it depreciate further.
Swiss Franc...
Sharp Declines in Euro and European Markets Triggered by French Political Drama
Global financial markets were abuzz with several high-profile events last week, including critical meetings of Fed and BoJ, alongside release of US inflation data. However, it was the escalating political turmoil in France that captured the most attention, significantly impacting Euro and overshadowing other major economic news. The common...
Swiss Franc Outperforms as Global Inflation Data Lack Lasting Impact on Forex
Inflation data were the key drivers in the forex markets last week, though they failed to produce any sustained movements across major currencies. Australian Dollar rallied following robust CPI figures, yet its gains were limited by the prevailing risk-off sentiment in the region.
Similarly, Euro received a modest boost after...
Sterling Climbs as Markets Dial Back BoE Rate Cut Expectations
Last week, global financial markets were heavily influenced by evolving expectations surrounding central bank monetary easing paths and unexpected political developments. British Pound emerged as the most significant gainer, buoyed by fading expectations of an immediate BoE rate cut in June. This shift was precipitated by latest inflation data...
Risk-On Sentiment Pushes US Stocks to New Highs, Safe-Haven Currencies Underperform
Risk-on sentiment dominated global financial markets last week, with investors buoyed by US inflation report that alleviated fears of another interest rate hike by Fed. The DOW defied gravity and surged to a new record high above the 40k mark, while S&P 500 and NASDAQ also set new records....
Global Markets Rally on Central Bank Easing Signals; Currencies Show Subdued Movements
Global markets were buoyed by pervasive risk-on sentiment last week, with both FTSE and DAX setting new records and major US indices posting substantial gains. Even Hong Kong HSI extended its rally from January's lows by 25%, underscoring a broad uptick in investor confidence. In Europe, enthusiasm was particularly...
Dollar Falls as Prospects of Two Fed Rate Cuts This Year Reemerge
Dollar concluded last week with significant losses, influenced by a set of factors that realigned market expectations and investor sentiment. A pivotal moment came with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's much less-hawkish-than-feared remarks at the FOMC press conference, coupled with disappointing US employment figures. These developments led markets back to...
Yen’s Decline, Robust US Investor Confidence, and Aussie’s Rise
Last week's market activity was shaped by several significant themes. Firstly, the Japanese Yen's rapid decline caught market participants off guard. The sell-off was exacerbated by what many considered tepid verbal interventions from Japanese officials. Current momentum suggests that the Yen's free fall is far from over. The key...
Market Turbulence Amid Middle East Tensions Highlights Fragile Investor Sentiment
It was a dramatic week in the global financial markets with rapid shifts in investor sentiment triggered by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While calm was eventually restored somewhat, the volatility served as a clear indicator of the underlying vulnerability in investor confidence.
Amidst this geopolitical backdrop, the...
Bets on June Fed Rate Cut Abandoned, Dollar Asserts Dominance
The financial markets were jolted last week by data confirming the stall in disinflation progress in the US. This development prompted traders to quickly revise their expectations regarding Fed's monetary policy, withdrawing bets on a June rate reduction. This shift in sentiment led to strong rise in treasury yields...
Inflation Fears Resurface as Commodities Spike, Thwarting Central Bank Easing Hopes
Global financial markets are bracing for potential upheaval as geopolitical strains drive gold to new record while oil prices surge. This surge, alongside the rally in metals like Copper, ignites concerns over an inflation comeback. Such inflationary pressures, combined with a revival in manufacturing and service sectors, could deter...
Dollar Triumphs Following a Turbulent Week of Central Bank Shocks
The past week in the currency markets was a dramatic whirlwind, marked by pivotal moves from major central banks across the globe. From BoJ's unexpected hike to SNB's surprise cut, from Fed's hawkish leaning projections to BoE's dovish voting, they collectively orchestrated a much volatile than usual trading environment.
Amidst...
Dollar Rises on Fed Reassessment, But Reversal Pending Confirmation
Dollar ended the week as the strongest currency, boosted by the fresh round of inflation data that led markets to reassess expectations around Fed's rate cuts. This recalibration was also marked a pronounced rebound in treasury yields and a notably cautious sentiment pervading the stock market. Despite this rally,...
Dollar Dives, Yen Soars, A Week of Divergent Fortunes
Dollar and Yen had contrasting fortune last week, responding to divergent central bank expectations. Dollar found itself as the week's worst performer, a reflection of solidified expectations for Fed's first rate cut in June, reinforced by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's semiannual testimony. The cooling job US market is seen...